Letter from Doug Parker

[ClueByFour]

USA320Pilot comments: Today J.P. Morgan airline analyst Jamie Baker said, "LCC Q2 RASM to rival that of Q1 – We believe LCC consolidated RASM can approach 20% in Q2, rivaling its Q1 gain. RASM of this magnitude suggests Q2 earnings of $2.92 (un-taxed), versus previous $2.39 and consensus $2.10 (and despite worsened fuel guidance). Un-taxed F2006 raised from $4.86 to partially-taxed $5.33 at $2.04 jet fuel, 16% RASM, and mid-range of ex-fuel guidance. 2006 EBITDAR now $1,747 million from earlier $1,629 million with EBIT margins expected to top all others ex-LUV. At 5.1x 2006E EV/EBITDAR, the cheapest name we follow, bar none, and obviously our favorite (stock pick)."[/font]

Great. What's the unqualified EPS slated to look like? Smells like a negative number. Again. Return on equity? On assets?

*crickets*

Again, only airline people think like this. And day traders.

 

[SoftLanding]

ClueByFour said: "Umm, the entire point of the merger was that it would produce a profitable entity. Parker trying to spin that in such a way with this "excluding merger costs" is a joke. Only in the airline business do people think like this anymore."

USA320Pilot comments: Today J.P. Morgan airline analyst Jamie Baker said, "LCC Q2 RASM to rival that of Q1 – We believe LCC consolidated RASM can approach 20% in Q2, rivaling its Q1 gain. RASM of this magnitude suggests Q2 earnings of $2.92 (un-taxed), versus previous $2.39 and consensus $2.10 (and despite worsened fuel guidance). Un-taxed F2006 raised from $4.86 to partially-taxed $5.33 at $2.04 jet fuel, 16% RASM, and mid-range of ex-fuel guidance. 2006 EBITDAR now $1,747 million from earlier $1,629 million with EBIT margins expected to top all others ex-LUV. At 5.1x 2006E EV/EBITDAR, the cheapest name we follow, bar none, and obviously our favorite (stock pick)."

Best regards,

USA320Pilot

USA320Pilot,

couldn't find the quote from Baker, using finance.yahoo.com or jpmorgan/jpmorganchase...Care to provide a link?

Thanks

 

[PITbull]

Great. What's the unqualified EPS slated to look like? Smells like a negative number. Again. Return on equity? On assets?

*crickets*

Again, only airline people think like this. And day traders.

Yea, LCC will report a profit all right, excluding merger, excluding fuel, excluding any weather etc...

 

[awausairtech]

Yea, LCC will report a profit all right, excluding merger, excluding fuel, excluding any weather etc...

AND LABOR CUTS!!!!!! B)

 

[fmc]

Wrong, A point of clarification the pay scale for the great AWA agents got a $5.00+ hr raise

US west ie HP we are getting .40 cents raise per hour which brings our scale to 8.09 per hr for a csr (agent)
it will take two years to get to US payscale a new US agent
hired today makes more than a current two year HP employee

 

[N628AU]

Parker just did a "Bronner".That should never happen.

No, a "Bronner" would have been, "They are coming to kill us and if we don't gut the payroll some more, outsource more work, and cut the fleet in half we will liquidate."

 

[USA320Pilot]

SoftLanding:

SoftLanding asked: "USA320Pilot, couldn't find the quote from Baker, using finance.yahoo.com or jpmorgan/jpmorganchase...Care to provide a link? Thanks."

USA320Pilot comments: SoftLanding, the link is not distributed to the public, however, here it is:

Click here for J.P. Morgan airline analyst Jamie Baker's comments.

Best regards,

USA320Pilot

 

[SKY HIGH]

How many times I sat there as F/A's walked by, ignoring there was a coat on my lap. Sorry guys, it's not servitude...that's the gig.

Sky high states: Guess what? Deel. OTHER PEOPLE EXIST. In that 30 minutes of boarding, hundreds of bags are coming aboard, wheelchair passengers, unaccompanied minors, elderly, non-english, disabled, even catering and a HUNDRED OR SO more passengers as well......etc. Flight attendants FIND IT EASIER to retrieve and hang first class jackets at the END OF BOARDING. Why go out to row 4 in the middle of boarding to STEP OVER BAGS, GET HIT BY BAGS AND INCONVENIENCE those in the aisle. You end up saying, excuse me, excuse me, excuse me on the way back to the closet. On top of that, flights are full, if bags are not properly stowed......bags get checked. So, Monitoring the overheads is KEY.
It's not that F/A's are ignoring your coat. It's a priority thing. To accomplish AN ON-TIME DEPARTURE, F/A's shouldnt INTERRUPT BOARDING TO HANG COATS.

 

[USA320Pilot]

ClueByFour:

ClueByFour said: "Great. What's the unqualified EPS slated to look like? Smells like a negative number. Again. Return on equity? On assets? *crickets* Again, only airline people think like this. And day traders."

USA320Pilot comments: Lehman Brothers airline analyst Gary Chase said in a research report yesterday:

AIRLINES: THE BLACK GOLD BLUES – Lehman Brothers – April 17, 2006

At a broader level, airline shares discounting much of the potential upside we envision for the group, but still see company-specific opportunities. Top picks LCC and UAUA.

* Surging energy prices likely to cast a pall over earnings season. Fuel guidance likely to rise materially versus current expectations. Profits still likely for 2Q and FY06, but fuel taking a bite out of expectations.

* Revenue environment very strong amid capacity restraint, partially offsetting fuel. Given our valuation methodology, revenue has more value than fuel, so targets decline only slightly despite earnings reductions in 2006.

* Capacity is key. Fare hikes won't compensate for fading discipline. Absent that discipline, the airline fairy tale could end abruptly and badly. Investors will be listening very carefully for any hints of change on that front and will likely respond harshly to additional creep. Silver lining of high fuel is that it usually keeps capacity in check.

* Still a bit early for 2007 capacity agendas, but we believe that issue defines whether or not industry performance improves meaningfully in 2007 versus 2006.

* Best play for earnings LCC; think LCC surprises positively in 1Q and out-earns '06 consensus in 2Q alone.

* Downgrade CAL to 3-Underweight, raise ALK to 2-Equal weight, principally on valuation.

Top picks still LCC and UAUA.

Best regards,

USA320Pilot

 

[ClueByFour]

ClueByFour:

ClueByFour said: "Great. What's the unqualified EPS slated to look like? Smells like a negative number. Again. Return on equity? On assets? *crickets* Again, only airline people think like this. And day traders."

USA320Pilot comments: Lehman Brothers airline analyst Gary Chase said in a research report yesterday:

*crickets cut*

So, when is the unqualified EPS of LCC going to be a positive number? Airline stock analysts are by definition day traders (since with one notable exception, none of the stocks currently appreciate in price due to any kind of connection with fiscal health).

Being second best of the worst (or, first of the worst if you give LUV the benefit of the doubt since they've made money for 32 years) is nothing to get excited about.

Still waiting on that prediction on a quarter of positive EPS (or, even sustained EPS).

 

[Travelpro72]

Sky high states: Guess what? Deel. OTHER PEOPLE EXIST.
I can't agree more. As soon as you go and grab that one coat and head back to the closet there are 10 people at the door and the agent has paperwork. It is so much easier to just take them when the door is shut and armed. We all know as f/a's that we have had the snaps and whistles too. Oh yeah, how about the coat hanging off two fingers? LOL. The same Pax excuse me passenger that has the coat hanging off the two fingers saying to you in the galley, "2D" is the same passenger to get PO'd when were late leaving due to boarding problems etc. LOL

 

[EricLv2Fish]

Are tips allowed by FC passengers? And if so, let me guess who the best tippers are...

 

[USA320Pilot]

ClueByFour said: "So, when is the unqualified EPS of LCC going to be a positive number?"

USA320Pilot comments: "As Fuel Prices Climb, American, US Airways, and Delta Raise Domestic Leisure Airfares for the 5th Time in 2006 ... Says BestFares.com."

Click here for the story.

Best regards,

USA320Pilot

 

[Walmartgreeter]

It would seem, for the first time since the early 90's, that airlines are now pricing their most competitive fares with fuel prices added on. What a novel concept! Greeter.

 

[AIRWOMAN]

It would seem, for the first time since the early 90's, that airlines are now pricing their most competitive fares with fuel prices added on. What a novel concept! Greeter.

And why is it that the airlines have to disclose rate hikes to offset fuel costs? The grocery stores and other businesses that raise prices because fuel costs them more, don't make the big announcement. :unsure: