I basically agree with Jim, although I would comment:
1. Mediation prior to arbitration is the one chance for the company to be wise, and the flight attendants humbled. Forget the relinquishment of the hard forty- that's LAA's penance, not to mention a pretty indefensible cost, and let the TA take effect intact. Flight attendants say "thank you" and labor relations continue to circle the bowl, rather than be completely flushed. Highly unlikely.
Problem: If you read the output from the union, the company has already said that the only thing to be mediated this time around is to decide the issues the 2 sides will present to the arbitrator rather than try to arbitrate the entire TA. The company has not covered itself in glory in the past by "doing the wise thing." And, from what I have observed, I would say that applies to company management whether from the LAA or LUS side of the aisle.
I was just using the Hard40 as an example of contract detail issues that the company has said they will not mediate in the pre-arbitration phase. (P.S. I personally like the idea of the Hard40. If you want to call yourself a flight attendant, you should be expected to fly on occasion.) As far as I'm concerned, more occasions than not. You can't tell me that a flight attendant who works once or twice a year (or less in the case of a number of the LAA f/as) is not a safety issue in an emergency. I rarely fly the 757 (not senior enough to hold it). When I do fly it I have to drag out my manual--not so hard since it became the tablet, but nevertheless--I have to refresh my memory as to commands, location of safety equipment, etc.
2. Trajectory at this point is straight to arbitration. The arbitrator guts compensation and 401K match to get the 82 million. The LUS flight attendants lose the 3K, thus ensuring dismal labor relations and intra- union hostility as the LAA flight attendants retain their 9% match because it was in their bankruptcy agreement. They're 24,000 and US is only 8000 and well you know that's just how things go. It's $24 million after all. Shades of TWA.
This outcome is basically a certainty. Brace for impact.
3. See #2. From the company's perspective, this misery was self inflicted and I agree. That will be the response for the next five years.
I agree also, but I don't think the arbitrator will "gut" compensation, however, it will be less than what the TA offered. I think you're roster numbers are a little high for the LAA side, but using them (total of 32,000 f/as) and your $82 million number, the arbitrator has to reduce TA cost by $2562.50 per f/a. I see the lead and galley f/a supplements going away, except for Purser and International (as it's pretty much always been). A reduction in vacation time, etc. That sort of thing.
4. Ahh sorry, disagree with this one. The LAA flight attendants voted this down. LUS narrowly approved the TA.
I don't believe that I ever mentioned either side as being responsible for the NO vote. It was pretty obvious that it came from the LAA side of the house. After all these years of none of them reading past the page in a TA where the pay chart was placed (strategically page 1 or 2), why did they decide to start caring about work rules, et?. And, are you telling me that LUS flight attendants have always been happy with their work lot in life? I know some of you already. Have to call BS on that. LOL When I said there are only two things that f/as hate--how things are and change--I was speaking of f/as in general. I've traveled all over the world, and our crankies are not unique. If FAs never came to work and still got all benefits and pay, they would complain about having to walk to the mailbox to collect their paycheck. As far as being/staying pissed off for the next 5 years over something you (nor I) can do anything about? Isn't that like drinking poison expecting it to kill the other person? (Maybe I missed your point. It happens.)
In response to your last post I would have to say that the company knows they can train my replacement in 6 weeks or less ( in a staffing emergency). Not so with the pilots. They're a little harder to come by. DP and company are thrilled we are going to arbitration because we've laid almost $100 million on the table with a note that says "please take this back. We don't want it." And all DP and company have to do is assist the arbitrator in reducing the TA by that amount. They can then say, :"We were just obeying the Negotiation Protocols agreed to by the union before negotiations even started." (P.S. If I were in DP's shoes I would do exactly the same. Business is business. This is not about whether or not we are all on each others Christmas card lists. In business, if an employee group gives back $100 million that you agreed to pay them, you quietly and graciously (as your mother taught) say, 'Thank you", and use the money for something else.)