International Flying & Recent Slot Wins Will Drive Southwest's Growth In 2014

[WorldTraveler]

it's a pretty obvious principle that WN itself has spoken about..... those who wish to discuss the implications based on the obvious data and WN's stated strategies will get it.

it's also clearly obvious that traffic on WN has not shrunk and other carriers have even flown increased capacity DESPITE the weather that has affected the industry.

it matters not to me whether some people want to try to deny a point that is perfectly obvious to anyone that wants to see the truth - regardless of what it says.

the simple fact is that WN is operating FEWER flights and that won't change this year; for the published booking period, WN/FL is operating 4-5% fewer flights than a year ago . They are nearly maintaining their same traffic levels by increasing their load factor and using larger aircraft.

on a percentage basis, the greatest reductions are coming in the following cities that are not being discontinued.
ORF
GSP
DAY
HRL
BUF
SDF
NAS
MHT
RNO
FNT

on an absolute seat basis, the following cities are losing more than 500 seats/day
LAS
BUF
BUR
RNO
JAN
MCO
ORF
BWI
ATL

while these five cities are gaining more than 500 seats/day, again based on currently published schedules.
HOU
SAN
DEN
LGA
LAX


What is unchanged and indisputable is that WN is offering fewer flights even now and they haven't even published their DCA and DAL schedules, let alone accounted for the increased delivery rates of the 717s to DL.

 

[700UW]

You can post what you want, the facts are they are adding capacity.

 

[WorldTraveler]

no, in fact, they are not.

the fact that you can't seem to grasp that their ASMs were down 2.6% in January and are projected to be down even in the future while other carriers are increasing capacity shows that you are either in way over your head on the subject or that you can't admit that someone else is right.

here is the link to their Jan traffic report

http://www.swamedia.com/releases/southwest-airlines-reports-january-traffic-2

here is DL's
http://news.delta.com/index.php?s=43&item=2247

and here is AA's...

http://hub.aa.com/en/nr/pressrelease/american-airlines-group-reports-january-traffic-results

you can keep going but other airlines managed to increase overall capacity despite the weather while WN did not.

And the trend is not going to change because it has nothing to do with the weather but rather the difference in network strategies between WN and the legacy carriers as well as other low fare carriers.

Either way, WN's capacity is down and the number of flights they are operating is down at an even faster rate.

WN's revenues may grow - and they likely will - but it is because they are pursuing higher quality revenue and not because they are growing their capacity.

There will be other carriers that will find the opportunity to increase their presence in WN's core markets while WN goes and chases new opportunities.

 

[swamt]

And 2014 should be one of the largest increase in capacity in a long, long time.  14,15 and 16 should all be capacity growing years, and should be rather large increases.  Just hope we can find enough used a/c to keep up with the growth we will be doing.

 

[WorldTraveler]

yet, WN's published schedules shows CAPACITY - which is measured in Available seat miles - is DOWN throughout the entire period for which WN has published schedules. Seats offered is down an even larger amount.

2015 and 2016 may change the trend but for now, WN will be flying less seats and less ASMs.

WN will find enough aircraft to increase its capacity in subsequent years but it won't happen in 2014.

 

[robbedagain]

swamt  is wn lookin for 737-800 in particular  or what when it comes to used aircraft

 

[LD3]

What is DL's ATL connection percentage? I came across an article in the AJC that said DL's intl conx percentage was 70%, but what is their dom percentage?

 

[WorldTraveler]

depends on the hub but systemwide about 50/50 for domestic; LGA is very low connecting while the big 4 anchor hubs (ATL, DTW, MSP, and SLC) are higher. and you are right that int'l flights generally require about 70% connections whether at ATL or JFK (the majority of DL's longhaul int'l ops). just as an FYI, AA and DL have very similar percentage of domestic to int'l connections at JFK.

not to get too far off the topic but DL's SEA int'l flights have been about 80% local according to what DL said on their earnings conference call which highlights why DL felt a need to provide its own feed since AS was not providing enough inventory to support DL's int'l flights.

At MDW, last time I checked, WN was about 50/50 local/connecting traffic and that was one of the highest on their system. Other focus cities, esp. LAS, are much higher local as you would imagine. So, DAL is about midway down the list in terms of connecting percentage at large focus cities for WN.

Related to the discussion on this thread, BWI has one of the larger reductions in number of seats and flights which likely indicates that WN expects that it will not be pulling as much WAS area traffic to BWI as it adds DCA service. ATL has the highest reduction in seats based on the strategy which smamt noted of trying to reduce connecting capacity in favor of pursuing higher local market share - although DOT data says so far they haven't really moved the dial in terms of higher percentages of local traffic.

There are legitimate and logical reasons for why WN is reducing its capacity in certain markets and why a few others like DEN are seeing capacity increases, some of which are being driven by larger, lower CASM aircraft.

 

[swamt]

Robbed, they are all mainly 700's.  SWA will take 800's but not sure if anyone is getting rid of them as of yet.  I am hearing that the used market is so bad right now that they are coming from overseas, China, Columbian and Japan.

 

[700UW]

From another web page:
 
As of now WN is actually supposed to receive 12 used 73Gs. Take a look at the bottom of WN's latest earnings release:

http://www.swamedia.com/releases/sou...-consecutive-year-of-profitability

I believe the breakdown is 5 from WS, 3 from AS, 2 from CZ, and 1 from Enerjet and VA but I'm not 100% certain.

 

[robbedagain]

thanks swamt and 700   interesting too

 

[swamt]

SWA is adding more international flights.  After announcing the July 1st flights, we are now adding more new flights in Aug as well as Oct 2014.   Most are AT take overs but great to see the acceleration.  After all complete transition from AT is suppose to be complete by end of 2014, where SWA will be doing all the international flying, as well as adding to the international flying in 2015.   14 is looking strong, but, 15-16 is looking even stronger as the cost of the AT purchase will be completely behind us AND SWA will start receiving the full synergies (with out merger costs) in 2015. 
So nice to see the progression come to reality.  Watch us grow like we did back in the 90's.  Keep it up SWA!!!

 

[WorldTraveler]

what routes are being added this year or have been announced that are not AT conversions?

I have no doubt that WN will aggressively grow in Latin America and the Caribbean when it receives enough airplanes to support its growth.

The domestic market is nearly saturated so there are few growth opportunities left in the US outside of the NE and DAL which is why WN is trying so hard to get as much access as it can to those cities.

Yet, the US is easily within the distance of a 737 to much of Latin America. WN will have an enormous impact on the Latin/Caribbean markets far beyond what even B6 has done so far, primarily because of WN's much larger size.

When you consider that Brazilian airline Gol - G3 - flies from MCO to Brazil with a stop in the Caribbean using 737NGs, practically any point in Latin America can be reached from the US if WN wants to do so.

 

[swamt]

I don't think any this year are newly added NON-AT flts.  The added flts in 2015 will be the ones outside where AT was flying.
Not sure if SWA will do flts in/out of Brazil, but sure they will look at it. 

 

[WorldTraveler]

I don't think any this year are newly added NON-AT flts.  The added flts in 2015 will be the ones outside where AT was flying.
Not sure if SWA will do flts in/out of Brazil, but sure they will look at it.

yeah... we're getting to the same page.

I doubt seriously that WN will operate single plan one-stop flights to deep S. América.

Maybe they'll go for widebodies or the MAX or build a hub at SJU (some other carrier tried to do that and another is repeating it now) but the MAX could likely reach much deeper into S. América from the Caribbean... if WN thinks it is worth it.