International Flying & Recent Slot Wins Will Drive Southwest's Growth In 2014

[700UW]

Seems someone is wrong again, who would that be:
 
http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2014/02/20/international-flying-recent-slot-wins-will-drive-southwests-growth-in-2014/
 
 
 
 

 

[WorldTraveler]

I'm sure you are trying to target that at me but would you like to tell us what part of the article (did you even bother to read it?) says that I am wrong?

I have repeatedly said that the changes to Wright, the DCA slot deal, and int'l flying present MORE opportunities than WN can address with its fleet. Can you go find those comments for us? You'll find them many times.

btw, did you see the links to these articles in the sidebar...? looks like even Forbes can't talk about WN without throwing in DL. Imagine that.

Delta Looks Set To Repeat Its Strong 2013 Performance In 2014

Delta's International Routes And Cheaper Fuel Lift Outlook

 

[700UW]

I believe you said WN was shrinking and cant sustain growth and the removal of 717s is going to make WN shrink.

The above articles shows different.
 
Is this the Delta Board?
 
Um nope, its WN.

 

[robbedagain]

come on 700 you should know by now if it aint delta   it aint no good!     good for wn for their expansion plans and all 

 

[WorldTraveler]

I believe you said WN was shrinking and cant sustain growth and the removal of 717s is going to make WN shrink.
The above articles shows different.
 
Is this the Delta Board?
 
Um nope, its WN.

nope, you got it wrong.

are we surprised? well, not me.

I said that WN is reducing frequencies as it upgauges the airline by removing the 717s and that they are flying fewer flights. It helps their CASM to do so but it means they are operating less flights which means they can't offer as many flights as their competitors who are not reducing trips even while also adding capacity.

that swa mechanic/PR person on here even acknowledges that WN won't have the aircraft it needs this year in order to handle all of the opportunities it has plus maintain its own network - but there will be more airplanes coming next year and the next. And he is right... but it doesn't change that WN will be reducing the number of flights on its core original network as part of the FL integration, the Wright opportunities, and the DCA and LGA slot deals.... they have already said their will be little new int'l flying in 2014 with the focus being on moving what FL flies over to WN.

the significance to DL is that DL is getting more mainline aircraft specifically because they are receiving the 717s which WN doesn't want and which WN would otherwise have to park at the end of the year or else modify their labor agreements and/or get a WN 717 program until the 717s are gone. DL is helping WN out but also positioning DL to grow when WN will be limited to do so - and I don't see anything that says AA or UA will be in a position to grow this year either.

 

[swamt]

Wait a minute. Never have I ever said SWA would never have enough a/c to handle the growth, never.  What I said was right now, SWA is not receiving enough a/c from Boeing to sustain the growth that is coming for SWA, THEREFORE, SWA is looking at any and all used a/c (10-150) for the next year or so to sustain and continue to grow.
As far as handling current growth and barrowing from current flights, well, hell yes, it's a no brainer that SWA will have to cut some flights to grow the non-stops from LF.  When customers want non-stop flights, and can now get them by cutting out the middle city to get them they will do it.  The non-stop flights added to the schedule in combination of the deletion of some short haul flights will overwhelmingly take care of itself, hand over fist, watch and learn.  Matter fact ALT will be one of them...

 

[WorldTraveler]

I'll let WN's Jan traffic report speak for itself.

http://www.swamedia.com/releases/southwest-airlines-reports-january-traffic-2

Trips flown (7.4)% year over year 2013 vs 2012.

The numbers will repeat itself over and over again this year.

WN's capacity (ASMs) were down 2.6% but LF was pushed up by 3.6 points.

Still, WN's LF is one of the lowest in the US industry.


and yes, I get the whole idea of getting rid of the connecting traffic and carrying them on nonstop flights.

but that only works if you have a superior schedule to your competitors - which is not necessarily the case in ATL (Atlanta) and why the likelihood of WN gaining average fare parity with DL is slim. With costs only a few percent behind DL, WN can't remain in the market with a double digit plus revenue disadvantage. The reason why WN can operate 4-6 flights/day in other markets where there is no network carrier is because WN can get by with it. But it doesn't work in hubs like PHL or ATL where the legacy carrier has 2-3X more flights than WN and becomes the carrier of choice in the market because of frequency.

DOT data shows that even in the local ATL market, WN is losing passengers to DL and DL is enjoying larger average fare gains than WN.

and your argument of pulling the connecting traffic out of an airport is precisely one of the arguments AGAINST WN gaining more gates at DAL.

Even in the peak summer season of 2013, WN carried 35% connecting traffic thru DAL. They also used an average aircraft size equivalent to the 737-700.

When one-third of the passengers are "just passing thru" and WN is using the smaller of the two aircraft in its fleet, it is hard to argue with a straight face that WN should gain two more gates when the equivalent of 5 are tied up carrying connecting passengers and WN schedules few if any 738s at DAL.

Further, WN's LF at DAL at 74% is well below its system average which means it could push up the LF to levels comparable to its system and sell thousands of more seats per day.

It also takes the wind out of the argument that DL's use of large RJs and 717s takes up valuable space when DL boards 100% local traffic (no connections).

But, for now, WN is absolutely reducing the number of flights it offers even now - and the DCA slot awards haven't begun, let alone the new DAL flights.

WN will have no choice but to reduce service on its core network in order to provide aircraft for its new opportunities. That is happening already with very few 717s delivered and most of the new opportunities still down the road in 2014.

 

[robbedagain]

swamt  no matter how hard any airline works  in wt mind  only delta counts   only delta wins..  no matter what     

 

[WorldTraveler]

and you came to that conclusion how?

you missed where I have repeatedly said (along with swamt and others) how big of a year 2014 is for WN in opening new opportunities and moving the direction of the airline.

WN is a great airline and will be far stronger after this year.

But it doesn't change that all of the growth they have this year in new markets will mean they will leave some of their existing network open to competitors in order to pursue those opportunities.

As with everything I say here, we can check back and see how accurate I have been.

 

[robbedagain]

or how wrong you have been too  

 

[WorldTraveler]

since WN's own traffic reports already validate the point I am making even before 70 more 717s are removed from the fleet and the DAL and DCA flights have yet to be started, I'm not going too far out on a limb in saying that WN will offer fewer flights and the cuts will have to come from existing flights.

It will become apparent by the end of summer of so when WN loads its final schedules that will take it thru the end of the year.

and it may well also turn out that WN's reduction in flights will force up its LF which has been below industry average and will actually result in stronger finances.

But there will still be less flight choices than exist on WN's current network today. It is mathematically impossible for them to maintain what they have based on their currently published fleet plan which would have to dramatically change in order for them to not be impacted as I have said they would be.

 

[eolesen]

I'll let WN's Jan traffic report speak for itself.

Trips flown (7.4)% year over year 2013 vs 2012.

You're blinded by your own halo at times....

Every airline except for Hawaiian and Alaska will be down YOY with their January traffic, thanks to the storms that shut things down.

One day's cancellations on 33% of your system is all it takes to show a 1% reduction YOY, and most airlines saw that happening over several days in January.

 

[swamt]

And this is why I stop responding to him. Not only does he go off on long drug out explanations outside of the issues at hand, he, as you have pointed out, uses data that yes may affect what he said, but also fully affects the entire industry the same just to try and make his points made in his favor.   Some people will go to extremes to replace the missing pats on the backs by dear old dad from past years...

 

[WorldTraveler]

did you two even bother to click thru to the link for WN's Jan traffic? If you did you would see that trips flown is down by 7.4% creating 2.6% less ASMs but RPMs (revenue passenger miles) was UP 2.2%.

WN in fact carried MORE traffic on less capacity so the idea that storms hurt their traffic is not supported by the data they provided.

You can look at other airlines' traffic data and it will bear out a similar story - with the exception of the trips flown component.

WN is in the process of regauging their network by pulling out smaller gauge flights, reducing frequencies, and adding larger gauge aircraft.

Go look at Oct 2013 vs Oct 2012 for the combined FL/WN network when there was good weather overall for the US and you will see that their trips flown was down while their traffic was almost flat.
WN in fact carried MORE traffic on less capacity so the idea that storms hurt their traffic is not supported by the data they provided.

The same trend applies to UNFLOWN published schedules.

WN's number of trips flown is down far higher than AA/US, DL, or UA while seats flown is down for WN/FL but up for nearly every other carrier.

and weather has nothing to do with the trend. It has everything to do with WN's decision to reduce CASM by using large gauge aircraft not only on its own network - the addition of the 738s - and by reducing FL flying at a much faster rate than is occuring on the original WN network.

In WN's case, they are eliminating between 1 in 20 and 1 in 25 flights on their network but increasing seats per aircraft with a net overall reduction in total seats which they are offsetting by pushing up their load factor.

The simple fact is that WN is NOT offering as many flights but they are forcing up their load factor which is all financially good for the company - but it means fewer flights.

And, again, this all happened before 70 more 717s leave the fleet or WN/FL loads schedules for the DAL or DCA flying.

WN has ALREADY been regauging its network to reduce its frequencies and the trend will continue and accelerate in 2014 as it loads new flying and removes the remaining 80% of the 717 fleet.

WN's network WILL not offer the same amount of frequency on its core network (including FL which is in a number of key competitive markets).

Your attempts to prove me wrong only validate that you two both do not understand the INTENTIONAL choices that WN is making. Their reduced frequencies will make it harder for WN to defend its core network while providing opportunities for competitors to increase their presence in WN markets.

 

[robbedagain]

or the simple fact is you are never wrong but no one else is ever right