Hubs, route structure, etc

[tadjr]

IAD is not slot controlled so any carrier that wishes to could fly there. I'm sure with Independence gone there (could) be a lot of open space just sitting there waiting for someone. ("I havent been to IAD recently so I cant comment for sure on that.)
DCA is slot controlled and I'm sure some of the carriers would be crying that US/UA had too many slots. Give up some and keep your flights where the money is from DCA. There isnt the stranglehold on the "entire" DC market like there was back in 2000.

 

[Travelpro72]

I don't understand why many people STILL feel that US/UA will have to trim back in the DCA/IAD market now. Back in the day US had a hub in BWI but that's gone. While US is dominant in DCA and UA in IAD look at the airlines over in BWI. You have WN who runs a big...no HUGE operation and Airtran runs a pretty descent operation themselves. I don't think US/UA would be so hard pressed to drop so much in the area as some think.

 

[RowUnderDCA]

Did US really operate much of a hub in BWI in 2001?

 

[Travelpro72]

I'm pretty sure that the majority of BWI was dismantled after 9/11. As of around the middle of 2001 the mainline flights a day were in the mid 70's+ I believe. Metrojet had what 49 flights a day? So with BWI gone I don't think much would be demanded except for maybe a few DCA slots.

 

[Pacemaker]

The powerhouse operations will be ORD, IAD, DEN and SFO & LAX will get some growth.

Those are already UAL strongholds. So, why merge with US Airways?

 

[Travelpro72]

With the potential NW/DL deal and the size of ATL why would a combined UA/US cut back CLT? I just don't see that happening. The combined UA/US could expand the hell out of CLT and give them a true run for their money. I don't see CLT shrinking at all.

 

[Geek]

I do not know why everyone is SO SURE the HDQ will not be in PHX. Depends totally on who will be running the ship.
IF it is still Doug, I don't think the HDQ will be moving. There are more reasons than people realize why.
It is so funny to sit and watch everyone speculate. But it is disturbing how many people get a sick joy out of stirring the pot toward the "North" "South" "East" "West".
Really, Really childish considering we are all in this together now. No matter what it will effect every single one of us.....
Geek

 

[smoot4208]

Becareful what you wish nailed it.

For the international traveller Washington Dulles is much more desireable location Philly.

I do not mean to offend anyone at all ... but let's face it are you going to grow your hub out of the nations capital or are you going to do it out of Philly. Philly just does not offer the same "appeal" as Washington. And to top it off the problems at Philly are ridiculous. I would bet you if you went to Tokyo, London, Paris or Rio and asked what city would you like to visit Washington or Philadelphia ....99% of those people would say Washington. The Philly international hub does not make sense over Washington.

CLT,PHL, PHX and LAS will be trimmed. The powerhouse operations will be ORD, IAD, DEN and SFO & LAX will get some growth.

Good luck all.

If what your suggesting is true, then there is no need to merge. Parker has the upper hand in this deal. Plus with US management being in charge (I presume Parker will take over because Tilton does not have the desire to run the company) I just don't see CLT and PHL being trimmed. Like I said before, all three fill a niche and are profitable. Keeping CLT, PHL, and DCA allows you to keep 3 profitable locatioins, and shrink IAD. With your proposal, PHL, CLT, and DCA would all be trimmed to expand IAD. Not sure about PHL, nut United has consistently stated that they want a southeast presence. If IAD is such a good location for Carribean/Central America/Southeast, then why do they STILL want a southeast hub? To me it just seems that more money could be made by keeping DCA, PHL, and CLT strong. LAS and PHX will be trimmed since they are bogging down US profits.

 

[smoot4208]

Just curious if PHX and LAS were completely axed in the new merger, what would happen to AWA pilots and Flight Attendants who aren't on a joint contract?

 

[Travelpro72]

Roll the Psycho theme song........YIKES! ! ! ! :huh:

 

[RowUnderDCA]

Well, it seems that capacity reduction is very likely or almost certain to be part of the mix of benefits pursued by this merger.

Regarding the East, there are many routes to capacity reduction large, small, more likely to inspire new entrants filling in the abandoned capacity and less likely to do so.

So, the decision will depend on how much contraction US/UA wishes to achieve internally and how much overall industry capacity reduction it would like to achieve.

The least of both would be to reduce IAD just enough to accommodate Fed concerns. Clearly, the Feds don't object to US's existing east coast network. UA could expand its east coast network by simply 'trading in' its east coast ops for US's east coast ops. Also, I think that UA could STAR-ify IAD, focusing on feeding Star Alliance partners going international out of IAD, but significantly reducing domestic hubbing.

However, I think that's not really the point of the merger now.

I think inducing the most capacity reduction by the industry is the goal.

So, I wonder if there might be a way to induce another carrier to re-align its east coast operations in a manner that does not grow net capacity on the east coast.

How this could be achieved without further consolidation say with Spirit, AirTran or even a three-way with CAL, I don't know. That's the problem with reducing capacity. No carrier has the ability to prevent others from expanding into the void.

Perhaps additional failures in the smaller carrier group would help reduce capacity on the east coast.

NK, B6, FL and WN's actions would be significant here. Could WN shift more capacity into the east? Could the others decide to start growing again? Or would the others shift their operations away from low-yield p2p operations to say, fill-in behind a newly vacant PHL market? Clearly, DCA would not spend much time under served.

WN would surely grow at either PHL or IAD should UA/US leave a vacuum, but by how much and what WN markets be reduced?

It's a chess game and UA and US are most likely to be mated. (pick your own meaning)

 

[TechBoy]

Keeping CLT, PHL, and DCA allows you to keep 3 profitable locatioins, and shrink IAD.

This makes no sense at all. IAD has a larger and much higher yielding international business than PHL. IAD would remain at it is, or would expand slightly to take some of the traffic off of PHL. The international business at PHL will likely remain the same as it is one of the few profitable parts of US. Likewise, the combined company will keep as many of the DCA slots as the regulators allow. CLT will remain a significant hub, perhaps slightly smaller with the most marginal routes trimmed. LAS and PHX will see the most cuts as DEN is better located to be a mountain hub.

 

[Travelpro72]

Why do some think CLT will be trimmed when UA has been chomping at the bit for a Southeast hub? I just don't understand why CLT being downsized keeps coming up. Not saying it couldn't happen but I just don't see the reason for it. UA wouldn't want a BIG hub to hold their own against the likes of the combined NW/DL a stones throw away? :blink:

 

[zethya]

Why do some think CLT will be trimmed when UA has been chomping at the bit for a Southeast hub? ....

Of course you are assuming that UA is the acquiring carrier and will provide the CEO. In the last merger attempt, UA did in fact state they were after CLT, but if US is the decision maker, things may be very different. IMO the CLT growth (or reduction) question really depends on whether US/UA (or visa versa) want to Increase rather decrease (the rationale for the merger) capacity in the Southeast by competing head on with DL at hugely successful ATL. Particularly since CLT has essentially the same Domestic O&D as PIT. Regardless, every region's politicians in both networks will be jumping into the foray to state their strong objections to any route reductions (Specter (PA) already sent Parker a letter) and congressional hearings will likely be the basis for any initial route decisions, rather than pure economics, in order to get pre-December DOJ approval. Here is the DOJ decision on the 2001 merger attempt and one would think it should lay the foundation for US/UA forthcoming endeavor.
http://www.usdoj.gov/atr/public/press_releases/2001/8701.htm

 

[Bear96]

[O]ne thing I do know is that CLT is expanding and was the only place in the country that had positive home sales (in a bad market and economy)in whatever most recent report by realtors. . . .

Oops - not any more.