Hubs, route structure, etc

[Coffee_Tea_Or_Me]

Oops - not any more.

Just like everywhere else....not sure if this is significant or not.

To those who think US/UA would cut CLT I ask this: "Why on EARTH would an airline hand DL/NW the ENTIRE SE region of the United States? If CLT is cut, all of the passengers would have to be funneled through ATL. DL would have to increase capacity out of ATL and fly widebodies between CLT and ATL. Do you really think a company that owns a significant portion of the SE and is profitiable in the market would just hand it away?"

It's not going to happen. If US/UA cut CLT, then I bet CO or AA would step in and quickly fill the void.

 

[gaucho99]

I think CLT is probably the safest US hub in a UA-US merger. If anything, it will grow.

Does anybody think PHX has a chance to survive over DEN? I think den has a geographical advantage. it is better situated considering the location of other hubs. But phx has almost double the metro area population and almost no weather issues. Den gets snow/ ice delays in the winter and weight restrictions in the summer due to the altitude.

Or any chance PHX would be HDQ instead of ORD? That's a long shot, but Phx would probably be lower cost and if the company is hoping to get rid of employees, moving the HDQ to phx would result in more voluntary departures than keeping it in ord. (UA has more employees in ord than US has in Phx) Most people will opt not to move half way across the country.

 

[deltawatch]

Of course you are assuming that UA is the acquiring carrier and will provide the CEO. In the last merger attempt, UA did in fact state they were after CLT, but if US is the decision maker, things may be very different. IMO the CLT growth (or reduction) question really depends on whether US/UA (or visa versa) want to Increase rather decrease (the rationale for the merger) capacity in the Southeast by competing head on with DL at hugely successful ATL. Particularly since CLT has essentially the same Domestic O&D as PIT. Regardless, every region's politicians in both networks will be jumping into the foray to state their strong objections to any route reductions (Specter (PA) already sent Parker a letter) and congressional hearings will likely be the basis for any initial route decisions, rather than pure economics, in order to get pre-December DOJ approval. Here is the DOJ decision on the 2001 merger attempt and one would think it should lay the foundation for US/UA forthcoming endeavor.
http://www.usdoj.gov/atr/public/press_releases/2001/8701.htm

This political BS from the likes of Specter and the guy up in MN ... and poor government oversight (interference) is what put this industry in the tank. They need to get the heII out of the way and let the industry fix itself.

Just my opinion ....

 

[mrman]

Between DEN and PHX is really a tough one. Cons: DEN has high costs and aggressive expansion by SWA and F9, PHX has huge SWA presence and lower yields. Pros: DEN facilities and central location, PHX population growth, weather. Bottom line is SWA is gonna be big after F9 goes away and the DEN and PHX yields will be the same in time. With the high cost of facilities it may be hard to stay in DEN when it turns into a low cost hub for SWA. In the end PHX and DEN both reduced 20% but remain small hubs, SWA gains 50% of the market in both cities.

You are correct. And everytime their is a new WN schedule the new planes are going to Denver. So you have a hub in a poor weather area, 2 LCC with hub/focus, and high cost airport, and limited O&D

 

[flyJOE]

The other part about UA reducing CLT over IAD, is that if UA felt that IAD was capable of serving as the SE hub, it already would have been done. Please don't tell me that UA flies to CHS, GSP, GSO, SAV, etc.. to IAD either. All of those CRJs serve nothing more than Wash. area O&D and Int'l feed. UA has bagged other service in the SE in the past that didn't work out via IAD like ILM.

 

[flybynite]

CLT is a great hub. It's run well. And it moves traffic well. It's a great launch for South America as well as the islands.

Not to mention that they are building landing strips to accommodate the big heavies coming in from the Pacific Rim..

 

[whlinder]

So, UA announced IAD-DXB and IAD-DME. When is US going to announce those markets for PHL, since you know, it is like, better, than IAD?

 

[Travelpro72]

So, UA announced IAD-DXB and IAD-DME. When is US going to announce those markets for PHL, since you know, it is like, better, than IAD?

Ummm lets see, when we start taking deliver in early 09 of the dozens of new fuel efficient widebody jets. You know...the ones that United DOESN'T have on order.

 

[Be Careful What You Wish For.]

After reading some other posts regarding IAD and PHL as international/domestic hubs I remembered a post regarding NYC/BOS. His comment was that these last two city pairs are distinct and separate markets.

I began to think that PHL/IAD are also serving separate markets. The rub is the DCA gates. Do the DCA routes overlap greatly with IAD. Since DCA serves restricted destinations wouldn't the overlap be relatively small? I do not know the overlap, however that is my theory.

CLT does have the opportunity in a merger to become more important as both a connecting SE hub and if need be a more important INT'l hub. UAL, as far as I know does not have a hub south of ORD or DEN (a warm weather hub). This may become important considering all traffic east of the Mississippi goes through hubs adversely affected by weather, except CLT. Can you imagine traveling OMA-ORD-PHL in the middle of winter.

It's all guess work but hopefully some food for thought.

 

[WCT]

I had a couple of commuting United crewmember's on my trip this wk. One chief pilot, and one flight attendant. The majority of employees discust Tilton as CEO, and he has no plans on staying. They think DP would head the "new" United?! WHO knows. Also, PHX would maintain a major hub, because of the weather advantage, and cheaper fees/landing costs, etc. They have been talking of cut backs in DEN for the last year, and if the merger doesn't happen, layoffs will happen must likely system wide, but mainly in DEN and ORD, according to the pilot.

ON the US side:

I also flew most of my trips thru LAS on my 4 day trip, and a supervisor told me most of the decreased flying will only be MESA flights operating the late nite operation to such destinations as SAT, IAH, AUS, SLC. The only main line flights cut in AUG will be ONT, SMF, OAK, MSP, and I believe EWR. All of the remaining red-eyes will be pushed back to an new 9pm bank. If we become United, who knows? I am sure there will still be a big presence in LAS.

 

[coolflyingfool]

LAS frequencies are also being cut to PHX, LAX, ORD, ATL, DTW and SFO. MESA will be flying some LAS-PHX/LAX/SEA runs also.

 

[crusher]

Since all UAL serves from DCA is ORD , I think 10x per day and 1 daily to DEN , there is little overlap. The opposite is true in IAD where US presence is nearly non existent with a couple to CLT,PIT,PHL and some express. If we had to give up some express flights to maintain UAL flights it shouldn't create too much of a problem. Gee what makes more sense flights to ORD,DEN or CRW, PKB and the like.