WingNaPrayer
Veteran
Well, I was trying to be a bit more eloquent but, in a nutshell, yeah that's it.
Halloween Sick
- Thread starter operaations
- Start date
Garfield1966
Veteran
Don’t listen to these whiners. Just keep on keeping on and we will all get through this somehow. The are just bitter because they were wrong about BK and they seem to be ticked off that we seem to be digging our way out of the hole albeit very slowly.fliboi78 said:
Skyyggoddess
Advanced
- Jun 28, 2003
- 108
- 0
Garfield, I hope you are right, but things really are not so good. Obviously you have not read the Baument Report. Steven Baumert puts out an incredible financial news report on AMR every couple of months. He is a F/A for American. I am posting it below.Garfield1966 said:
The Baumert Report October 31, 2003
www.thebaumertreport.com
Got Debt?
AMR's payments on its debt and other commitments and obligations will
skyrocket beginning next year. The amounts represent such a staggering increase that, when combined with its minimum required pension contributions and interest expense, it will clearly force the company to seek every available avenue of financing and possibly further concessions from labor.
Focusing on just a few items will illustrate the magnitude of the increase. This year, the company's payments on it long-term debt and its capital lease obligations will total $199 million. Add in its minimum pension contribution of $186 million and the
total becomes $385 million.
Now comes 2004. For next year, the debt payments, capital leases and expected pension contributions come to roughly $1.5 billion; an astounding 390% increase. And that's not counting interest expense of $800 million.
It gets even worse in 2005 when the current portion of long-term debt alone will soar to $1.4 billion. Combined with capital leases and a minimum pension contribution that the company said will "significantly exceed" the 2004 contribution of $600 million, the sum for 2005 could be as high as $2.6 billion.
Long-Term Debt Payments, Capital Lease Obligations and Required Pension Payments:
2003 - $385 million
2004 - $1.5 billion
2005 - $2.6 billion
(2005 total includes author's own estimate of required pension contribution based on company's comments and 2004 expected contribution.)
Let's look at the upcoming year more closely. In 2004, AMR's debt payments, interest expense, capital lease obligations and estimated pension contributions total approximately $2.3 billion. Currently, the company has $2.7 billion in unrestricted cash and short-term investments and negative shareholders' equity of -$521
million. To avoid violating financial covenants, AMR must maintain at least $1
billion in unrestricted cash and equivalents. Cash flow is so weak it won't make much of a dent in the company's '04 cash demands.
Clearly, the company will be forced to pile on even more debt on top of the $12.5 billion in total debt it currently has in order to fund operations and meet it's cash demands. And despite probable denials from management and union leaders, additional concessions in work rules and/or other contractual items are likely under
consideration.
However, given the very low employee morale AMR would do well to seek every other alternative available before asking employees to once again subsidize the TWA debacle, the "More Room" mistake and their unrealistic pension return assumptions.
On a related note, AMR now has $2.1 billion in off-balance-sheet debt related to airport bonds. This debt has been kept off the company's balance sheet because municipalities or airport authorities issued these specific bonds. Then they employ lease payments to service the debt. Nevertheless, AMR/American Airlines agreed to guarantee the bonds and are ultimately on the hook for the debt should the issuing entities fail to pay the bondholders.
Soon, though, AMR may be forced to shift the debt onto their balance sheet courtesy of the Financial Accounting Standards Board. FASB wants airport bonds to be recognized as actual debt for any airline that guarantees them, which makes perfect sense. In fact, Delta and UPS already include airport bonds as debt on their
balance sheet.
At AMR, this would have the immediate effect of ballooning total debt to $14.6 billion and worsening shareholders' equity to a deficit of minus $2.62 billion. Still, it would reflect financial reality considering if the unexpected happens, AMR would, in the end, be responsible for making good on those bonds.
Also, under the provisions of the bonds, AMR must shell out $730 million over the next five years to repurchase some of the bonds. That's right. They have to buy back 35% of the bonds at a cost of almost three-quarters of a billion dollars. AMR
admits they may not be able to remarket the bonds after they buy them back.
Sources:
AMR 3rd Quarter 10Q, 2003
AMR 3rd Quarter Conference Call, 2003
Forbes, September 1, 2003, "Dead Weight" by Elizabeth Macdonald
Steven Baumert
For a free subscription to The Baumert Report email
[email protected]
To read selected previous issues go to www.thebaumertreport.com.
NewHampshire Black Bears
Veteran
- Aug 20, 2002
- 10,154
- 681
skyyggodess;
Thanks for the news(disturbing to say the least)
garfield 1966,
Still think everything is "delightfull", in "pleasantville"
What really makes me laugh.
When I, or perhaps another poster(like WNP) "calls it like we see it", were labeled negative, bad attitude,unrealistic etc, etc, etc, usually by the company "kool aid" guzzelers. Hey, that ok, I've got THICK skin.
BUT,
NEVER put me down for calling a BAD deal, a BAD deal. AND this includes the "POS" leaders of the (so called) unions on the property.
Anybody with 1 ounce of sense, who doubts that AA would not "slice our jugular vain AGAIN, still believes in the "tooth fairy", and "santa claus"
Now GARFIELD 1966, Plz. don't misconstrue "that" with some one wanting to be "hopeful"(fliboi78)
"Hopeful",or "KOOL AID guzzeler" are as different as night and day.
AND WE ALL KNOW IT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The WORST president in the history of the united states, RONNIE RAEGAN, did say one thing right , one time, when he was refering to the Russians.
"TRUST, BUT VERIFY" !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That "slogan" is a perfect fit for the big boys at CENTERPORT.
NH/BB's
Thanks for the news(disturbing to say the least)
garfield 1966,
Still think everything is "delightfull", in "pleasantville"
What really makes me laugh.
When I, or perhaps another poster(like WNP) "calls it like we see it", were labeled negative, bad attitude,unrealistic etc, etc, etc, usually by the company "kool aid" guzzelers. Hey, that ok, I've got THICK skin.
BUT,
NEVER put me down for calling a BAD deal, a BAD deal. AND this includes the "POS" leaders of the (so called) unions on the property.
Anybody with 1 ounce of sense, who doubts that AA would not "slice our jugular vain AGAIN, still believes in the "tooth fairy", and "santa claus"
Now GARFIELD 1966, Plz. don't misconstrue "that" with some one wanting to be "hopeful"(fliboi78)
"Hopeful",or "KOOL AID guzzeler" are as different as night and day.
AND WE ALL KNOW IT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The WORST president in the history of the united states, RONNIE RAEGAN, did say one thing right , one time, when he was refering to the Russians.
"TRUST, BUT VERIFY" !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That "slogan" is a perfect fit for the big boys at CENTERPORT.
NH/BB's
WingNaPrayer
Veteran
Yes I did, and you know what, if it weren't for the fact that the majority of the unionized employees fell for the empty threats and the bull#### and forked over nearly 2 billion dollars worth of salary and work rule changes . . . they were clearly prepared to file it. They had you all believing that their lawyers were standing on the steps of the courthouse in New York, just waiting for the vote results and you all fell for it.MiAAmi said:
I also remember saying that if the employees gave in and forked over the concessions that AMR was blackmailing you for, that the furloughs, lay-offs, firings, etc., would STILL happen in record numbers . . . and guess what . . .
THOUSANDS of you are now on the streets, many of you, after exhausting your unemployment benefits, are now eeking by on food stamps, have lost all health care benefits, many lost their homes and a good number of you have long since filed personal bankruptcy.
You can kiss American's fanny all you like, but don't throw it back in my face when I tell you what I think might happen and when it does, you try to act like I friggin CAUSED it to happen.
Now your backing off saying that it "might" happen! Not so sure of yourself now are you? You know what, lots of people took a gamble and decided what was best for them. Wing na Prayer you obviously have it out for AMR which is your own issue. To throw cold water on someone who is getting their job back is just "plane" rude. You don't have to open anyones eyes to what AA management is capable of, it was headlines back in APRIL. AA is no different than any other big corp when it comes to unions. All AA employees have taken enough crap over the past 5 to 6 months. Letting us enjoy the spec of light that seems to be coming way down the tunnel wouldn't hurt you. The doom and gloom is getting old.WingNaPrayer said:
WingNaPrayer
Veteran
How can it be getting old when it's something new every damn day! A few of you get called back to work in order to toss a bone in labor's direction to help keep them in line and to help stop all the bellyachin - you want to think it's a ray of sunshine, fine, go for it. Luckily there are enough realists out there who remember what AA is capable of, and what they more than likely will do.
My opinion stands, any call backs right now are temporary at best. By the time spring rolls around, corporate will be looking for sacrificial labor-lambs again.
My opinion stands, any call backs right now are temporary at best. By the time spring rolls around, corporate will be looking for sacrificial labor-lambs again.
Well my opinion is different. Seeing how short we were over the summer (2003) and how every summer we add flights not delete them I'm going to guess that 350 returning flight attendants probably won't even be enough. And if the rumor of 20 MD-80's coming back to service next year is true then I guess we can expect even more f/a's back from furlough. Would you kindly point out to us what the "something new every damn day" means.? And I like the way you twisted my spec of light at the end of the tunnel into a "ray of sunshine". Manipulating my posts to fit your arguement doesnt make you more believable.
WingNaPrayer
Veteran
Spec of light/ray of sunshine. Different saying, same meaning. Instead of playing word games, why not just put me in my place by showing me where AA has a history of calling people back from furlough, and then NOT laying them off again in short order when they were done with them, Hmmmmm?
If the best you can do is debate the differences between one old saying vs. another, then you've got bigger employment problems then you obviously realize. But then, leading the blind and fueling animosity-creating dissention in the ranks is something that AA management excells at.
Look at it this way, if they continue to dump labor (and by the looks of the revamping options the company is planning with occupational seniority, dumping is what they are definitely up to) eventually they'll get to the point where Ms. Lacklustre Susan Oliver won't be needed anymore and the company can add her excessive perk-filled VP salary to the savings pile . . . . or divy it up and add it to their own, which do you think they'd do? Remember, the executive war-cry is a salary saved is a bonus earned!
If the best you can do is debate the differences between one old saying vs. another, then you've got bigger employment problems then you obviously realize. But then, leading the blind and fueling animosity-creating dissention in the ranks is something that AA management excells at.
Look at it this way, if they continue to dump labor (and by the looks of the revamping options the company is planning with occupational seniority, dumping is what they are definitely up to) eventually they'll get to the point where Ms. Lacklustre Susan Oliver won't be needed anymore and the company can add her excessive perk-filled VP salary to the savings pile . . . . or divy it up and add it to their own, which do you think they'd do? Remember, the executive war-cry is a salary saved is a bonus earned!
Where are they continueing to dump labor? Can you tell me when we didn't add add flights over the summer? 350 f/a's are not that many f/a's when you consider how short we were last summer. If you (wing na prayer) are right then I'll be the first to say so we will have to wait and see. I would rather lean toward the positive.
