Fuel hedging
- Thread starter jcw
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- #47
US - completely agree - AA will suffer on the way up
However there are some that don't understand airline economics and the cost of doing a merger - however one stock is outperforming the other - so the market must not understand airline economics either
However there are some that don't understand airline economics and the cost of doing a merger - however one stock is outperforming the other - so the market must not understand airline economics either
If you read some of the links I posted, the fundamentals of oil have changed dramatically in just the last year.
Fracking isn't going away with lower prices like most thought, it's now much more efficient than it was, and it gets more efficient every day.
The cost of pulling oil out of the ground here is now around $13 per barrel, vs around $11 per barrel in Saudi, not a huge difference and not enough to stop drilling.
Nobody is cutting back because if they do, they lose market share, hello $20 per barrel oil, with a ceiling of $60.
Fracking isn't going away with lower prices like most thought, it's now much more efficient than it was, and it gets more efficient every day.
The cost of pulling oil out of the ground here is now around $13 per barrel, vs around $11 per barrel in Saudi, not a huge difference and not enough to stop drilling.
Nobody is cutting back because if they do, they lose market share, hello $20 per barrel oil, with a ceiling of $60.
WorldTraveler
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- #49
and if oil is really going to stay this cheap, then a big part of the justification for a massive fleet renewal makes a lot less sense.... on top of eventually eliminating thousands of maintenance jobs.
and I still have yet to hear anyone explain why AA's expected profit margin for the 4th quarter is not higher than carriers who have hedged given that other carriers will have hedge losses.
Homer?
and I still have yet to hear anyone explain why AA's expected profit margin for the 4th quarter is not higher than carriers who have hedged given that other carriers will have hedge losses.
Homer?
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- #50
really - why would anyone try to explain anything - they would then be trashed by one DL cheerleader saying anything they could possibly say positive about AA could not be possibly be right and how DL was better than AA on every measure
So really - why would someone do that?
Like how long have we been waiting for the list of issues DL has - when that gets produced you can ask questions like:
Do you know what SQ's profit margin is?
Do you know what AA's 4th quarter margin will be (let's be clear you don't know either (notice the word "know" used correctly unlike "garter" - unless you are stealing corporate information or making stuff up - can only be one of those items)
So really - why would someone do that?
Like how long have we been waiting for the list of issues DL has - when that gets produced you can ask questions like:
Do you know what SQ's profit margin is?
Do you know what AA's 4th quarter margin will be (let's be clear you don't know either (notice the word "know" used correctly unlike "garter" - unless you are stealing corporate information or making stuff up - can only be one of those items)
WorldTraveler
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the only question that you need to answer is why AA's profit margin for the 4th quarter is expected to be below other carriers who will have fuel hedge losses.
SQ has nothing to do with it.
just answer the question.
SQ has nothing to do with it.
just answer the question.
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- #52
please your demanding folks to answer questions - when you simply can't state anything negative about DL
produce the list and then people can answer your questions
It's funny you talk about DL's premium passenger revenue last quarter DL generated less passenger revenue than AA.
Remember all the pounding AA took from you on changing to the 321T out of NY and all the cargo revenue they were losing - let's see - cargo up YTD at AA 30.8% where as DL cargo revenue YTD is down 1% (can you say down) - looks like DL is struggling with cargo numbers this year - amazing to see them get so much cargo revenue from AA that their revenue is actually down 1% on a YTD basis
Tough one isn't it
produce the list and then people can answer your questions
It's funny you talk about DL's premium passenger revenue last quarter DL generated less passenger revenue than AA.
Remember all the pounding AA took from you on changing to the 321T out of NY and all the cargo revenue they were losing - let's see - cargo up YTD at AA 30.8% where as DL cargo revenue YTD is down 1% (can you say down) - looks like DL is struggling with cargo numbers this year - amazing to see them get so much cargo revenue from AA that their revenue is actually down 1% on a YTD basis
Tough one isn't it
WorldTraveler
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- #53
I've just asked how other carriers can have higher projected profit margins than AA when AA will have no hedge losses but other carriers will.
if all of this fuel hedge stuff really matters, then it should show up on the bottom line.
based on current guidance, it doesn't appear it will matter much.
if all of this fuel hedge stuff really matters, then it should show up on the bottom line.
based on current guidance, it doesn't appear it will matter much.
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- #54
so when did they issue guidance before or after the big drop - do they offer guidance every time there is a change in oil prices?
BTW - if EK is so unprofitable and a non-threat why is DL lobbying for EXIM bank to stop funding Boeing aircraft financing for jets - oh that's right DL is against the american worker - no pun intended - I'm referring to all the folks working at Boeing - not the american workers you trash every day on the boards
BTW - if EK is so unprofitable and a non-threat why is DL lobbying for EXIM bank to stop funding Boeing aircraft financing for jets - oh that's right DL is against the american worker - no pun intended - I'm referring to all the folks working at Boeing - not the american workers you trash every day on the boards
WorldTraveler
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- #55
airlines offer guidance usually at the time of their earnings release for the then current quarter - ie guidance is issued in October at the quarter that ended Sept 30 for the quarter which began Oct 1. Most airlines revise or affirm guidance during the quarter.
DL's guidance for profits has been revised upward despite the fuel hedge losses.
the rest of what you wrote is simply babble. EK is not unprofitable and DL is not against American workers. They just happen to be more for keeping their own older jets than buying new ones. The primary beneficiary of AA's strategy relative to DL's is bankers and investors in debt securities.
and in terms of the value of aircraft on order, DL's order book is skewed towards Airbus while AA has at least half coming from overseas.
DL's guidance for profits has been revised upward despite the fuel hedge losses.
the rest of what you wrote is simply babble. EK is not unprofitable and DL is not against American workers. They just happen to be more for keeping their own older jets than buying new ones. The primary beneficiary of AA's strategy relative to DL's is bankers and investors in debt securities.
and in terms of the value of aircraft on order, DL's order book is skewed towards Airbus while AA has at least half coming from overseas.
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- #56
sorry that you are wrong again
Here is a link to the story - you must have missed this one - we do realize you only read positive stories about DL
If DL is against Boeing selling jets to ME carriers by definition they want people to lose their jobs since their won't be a need to build aircraft for the ME carriers
Here is a link to the story - you must have missed this one - we do realize you only read positive stories about DL
If DL is against Boeing selling jets to ME carriers by definition they want people to lose their jobs since their won't be a need to build aircraft for the ME carriers
WorldTraveler
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- #57
you forgot the link but DL has Boeing jets on order for delivery and considered Boeing aircraft.
Is AA against American workers for the part of the order book AA has with Airbus?
you try really hard to post a lot but you don't even make sense.
and I suppose this is all an effort to hide the fact that you can't explain why AA isn't expected to have a higher profit margin than other carriers even though those other carriers will have fuel hedge losses.
You're clearly stumped.
Is AA against American workers for the part of the order book AA has with Airbus?
you try really hard to post a lot but you don't even make sense.
and I suppose this is all an effort to hide the fact that you can't explain why AA isn't expected to have a higher profit margin than other carriers even though those other carriers will have fuel hedge losses.
You're clearly stumped.
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- #58
my bad
here is the link:
http://atwonline.com/blog/story-behind-story-boeing-delta-ex-im-bank-spat
this is not about AA see on the AA board we can only talk about DL and how superior it is to every other airline
AA is not trying to prevent Boeing from selling aircraft - that is different then deciding on a product made by someone else through a competitive bid process
however I know that will stump you
The cap must be extra tight tonight
here is the link:
http://atwonline.com/blog/story-behind-story-boeing-delta-ex-im-bank-spat
this is not about AA see on the AA board we can only talk about DL and how superior it is to every other airline
AA is not trying to prevent Boeing from selling aircraft - that is different then deciding on a product made by someone else through a competitive bid process
however I know that will stump you
The cap must be extra tight tonight
WorldTraveler
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DL isn't stopping Boeing from selling aircraft.
DL's interest is that US taxpayers not help kill, wait, wait, American airline worker jobs by subsidizing foreign airlines.
DL is MORE American than, oh my goodness, an airline called American.
you really can't explain the profit margin guidance issue can you?
DL's interest is that US taxpayers not help kill, wait, wait, American airline worker jobs by subsidizing foreign airlines.
DL is MORE American than, oh my goodness, an airline called American.
you really can't explain the profit margin guidance issue can you?
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- #60
Oh so now it's DL protecting the taxpayer - how is immigration support helping the tax payer - how you spin it's amazing
There is nothing to explain on guidance DL gave some AA gave some - I don't have to hammer and hammer and hammer and hammer and hammer on a subject like others
There is nothing to explain on guidance DL gave some AA gave some - I don't have to hammer and hammer and hammer and hammer and hammer on a subject like others
