DL expands SEA further with SEA-SFO flights

[700UW]

Chucky has been around.

 

[WorldTraveler]

and you truly have nothing better to do that monitor my "reputation score?"

nothing about how AA's LAX' Asian expansion will take the wind out of DL's SEA expansion?

Nothing about how much capacity AA has at LAX to expand int'l service with at best a couple more TBIT gates - but what about the domestic servisse to feed it that is already full on AA right now?

DL, OTOH, is creating a whole new set of domestic flights to support its int'l growth at SEA.

You're a smart man, FWAAA. Help me understand this whole feed issue WRT DL at SEA and AA at LAX instead of worrying about reputation scores. I have higher expectations for this forum from you.

 

[eolesen]

Apparently there's nothing else to discuss. You've said it all.

The only thing that's changing is, well, your reputation score...

 

[WorldTraveler]

no, I'd really like to have some conversation about how AA is going to feed its int'l flights vs what DL is doing at SEA.

It could be a good conversation... but there has to be a focus on the issue....

wanna give it a try?

 

[traderjake]

no, I'd really like to have some conversation about how AA is going to feed its int'l flights vs what DL is doing at SEA.

 
That's Doug's question to answer and I don't think he's going to share it with you.

 

[eolesen]

Nor is it going to happen in the DL forum.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

Nothing about how much capacity AA has at LAX to expand int'l service with at best a couple more TBIT gates - but what about the domestic servisse to feed it that is already full on AA right now?

 
Since AA is not the #4 carrier at LAX (in terms of the # of passengers carried), perhaps it doesn't have to worry too much about feeding the new LAX-Asia flights.
 
I thought I read/saw somewhere that DL wants to eventually have approx. 150 daily flights at SEA.  Is this correct?  If yes, does it have enough gates to accomplish this?

 

[FWAAA]

Since AA is not the #4 carrier at LAX (in terms of the # of passengers carried), perhaps it doesn't have to worry too much about feeding the new LAX-Asia flights.

Oh, Snap!
 
That made me spit out my soda.   Thanks!    
 
Over at Flyertalk, the US frequent flyers are convinced that new international flights from JFK could never work because new AA won't have hundreds of daily CRJ and E170 flights like at the PHL hub.   But JFK, like LAX, doesn't need hundreds of tiny planes to feed flights, as the existing flights between those gateways (both JFK and LAX) and most major domestic cities will provide plenty of "fill em up" feed to supplement the large local market.   As you point out at LAX, AA already has a very large presence that can help fill new flights to Asia.   To the extent that lots of connecting passengers wish to get to JFK and LAX, AA can always upgauge the flights to avoid crowding out the more profitable local traffic.   
 
WT:  You don't need to write 500 words about how AA will lose its shirt on those flights - I concede that point.  We heard you the first couple dozen times.   My post is simply about whether JFK and LAX feature enough local traffic to far-away international destinations to ensure that those flights can be filled without resorting to hundreds of pesky tiny planes.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Frugal and FWAAA,
thanks so much for not outsourcing your thinking to someone else. The strength of this forum is based on people who know their business and are willing to engage in healthy discussion.

The question about LAX has to do with the fact that AA is ALREADY filling the seats it has at LAX by current traffic. There might be a few new gates available at the TBIT but if that is growth capacity, then where does the increased domestic capacity that is needed to fill those int'l flights come from?

AA actually has a higher percentage of 50 seat RJs at LAX than DL or UA; DL has nothing smaller than a CR7 and most of DL's RJs are CR9s or E170/75s while UA has a lower percentage of 50 seaters unless you also count the turboprops.

I know some on here have discussed their optimism regarding AA's ability to gain more gates, but is AA really going to gain the ability to upgrade much of their aircraft to larger aircraft, including the mainline aircraft that are what are need to really add connecting capacity to the market.

As to the question of how many gates DL has or will have at SEA, I'm not sure anyone really knows other than a few people in DL ops in SEA because the number keeps changing. The Port does seem to be accommodating DL's requests to get as many gates as are available. There continue to be rumors that DL is negotiating with the Port regarding a building plan that would make Concourse A at least one of the int'l concourses with DL as the largest if not sole tenant. Total gates are reported to expand to 25-30 which makes 175-200 flights easy to do.

Presumably DL does have commitments that it can get gates for the schedules at least that it has loaded - which is between 75 and 80 flights/day by the end of the year but about 1/3 of the total number of seats that AS operates.

Given that DL is building a new hub, it has the ability to designate whatever amount of that capacity will serve its 9 int'l flights/day vs. local and connecting domestic traffic.

 

[WorldTraveler]

looks like the SEA-JNU flight for the summer has been upgraded to a 757


Delta 2579 Seattle (SEA) 7:45pm Juneau (JNU) 9:13pm Boeing 757-200 2hrs 28min 907 miles

Could be that DL has a 75/767 base in SEA but not a 737 base. DL pilots say that AS has not shared its approach info with DL; not sure what the technical differences are between the 757 and 737 regarding navigation (Meto or other pilots can jump in) but the 757 is a high performance aircraft for exactly flights like SEA-JNU.

and of course the 757 has more seats.

 

[eolesen]

Might also indicate that DL has a shortage of aircraft and crew to meet all the corners of the universe they're trying to expand in.

 

[WorldTraveler]

How is an upgrade from a 738 to a 757 an indication of an airplane shortage?

DL is pretty clearly focused on the west coast growth this year.

 

[Kev3188]

How does it completely rule it out?


Could be any number of different reasons...

 

[WorldTraveler]

help me out here.

How could replacing a 738 flying the exact same flight with a 757 indicate a shortage of airplanes?

It could indeed be for several reasons but a one for one replacement of aircraft - and a larger one at that - seems to be an impossible way of arguing for a shortage of airplanes.

 

[eolesen]

Oh, I don't know, maybe it's because Juneau is a relatively insignificant destination in the grand scheme?...

It's a city of ~50,000 which is more or less landlocked. The airport has a whopping two jetways.

The entire area has but a single Walmart, and it's not 24 hour (an important indicator in my view).
There's some tourism demand (especially when the cruise ships come in), but aside from seasonal fishing and the state government, there's not a whole lot else going on. AS already owns the state business.,

That's why I'm really questioning the choice of aircraft, and how DL plans to fill up a 757.

From a resourcing standpoint, the same crew time could be used flying an additional transcon or an international trip. Instead, they're being used to fly a 2.5hr domestic leg, in a somewhat unproven market that DL hasn't directly served in decades).

They've got ~8500 feet of runway, and it's at 24 ft ASL. There are mountains on all sides, which could present a challenge, but not enough to require the higher thrust to weight ratios of a 757.

That's what says to me that the 757 wasn't the first choice of aircraft to use. The reason for that could be that there's just not enough 737 time available.

The other possibility is DL doesn't want to have to have overwater qualified 737 crews in SEA, or route overwater aircraft there, thus had no choice but to use the 757.

Either way, it doesn't look like the choice of aircraft has anything to do with demand.