DL expands SEA further with SEA-SFO flights

[commavia]

Ah yes - an ostensible Delta "partner" adds seven new flights to a Delta hub, in competition with Delta, in four markets in which Delta is the market leader with the most flights and most seats, and yet this is summarized as other carriers with no presence in any but one of these markets supposedly being the "most impacted," and conspicuously no mention of Delta at all.
 
This "logic" never fails to amaze.  I swear - if Alaska tomorrow announced a 200-flight hub at MSP, somehow that would be disastrous news for AA and/or United.  This level of pathological denial continues to be hysterical, as it has been for years.  Nice to see that some things never change ...

 

[WorldTraveler]

AS hasn't announced a 200 flt hub in MSP. They have announced a fairly small number of flights in a fairly small market which DL has done a very good job of defending in the 27 years since DL inherited.

AA and UA, in contrast, have a small presence in the SLC-West market, including in markets which AS will be starting.

As much as you might think my comments are irrational, there are very clear reasons why AA and UA are the most exposed by the AS-DL shootout in the West which shows no signs of slowing down.

As I have said for years, DL would finish up its growth in NYC and would start shifting its focus to the West. Even though you and others have mocked DL's buildup of the West in the past, DL had diferente strategic objectives in the past. Today, DL is fully focused on building its presence in the West.

UA is in the very uncomfortable position of being the highest cost carrier in the US and they also have the largest share of the West coast market among the big 3.

AA, as much as you want to think otherwise, has got more fires to fight in the next 12-18 months than any airline has ever successfully navigated and as much as you want to think otherwise, the West will be a casualty for AA. AA has no viable West coast-Asia presence and AA's costs are the 2nd highest in the industry and they aren't going to go down with the merger.

This isn't personal, Commavia. It is business.

DL knew full well when it needed to finish up its east coast strategies and shift to the West coast. DL is pushing its way into markets.
AS is a well run airline and they will figure out how to survive.... it is their home and they have no choice.

There will be casualties on the West coast as DL and AS each try to protect their own strategic interests.

 

[commavia]

You are right about one thing - this, indeed, isn't "personal."  I've long held what you write in such low regard not because of who you are personally, but because so much of what you post is just such categorically false and laughably biased B.S. wrapped in a layer of rude, sanctimonious and completely unjustified arrogance and certitude.  This whole ridiculous "business" of Delta being at a permanent competitive advantage to AA being but just one classic example.

 

[WorldTraveler]

then if it is false, when can we expect that you will prove me wrong?

You do realize that in the past 7 years, DL has dethroned AA in NYC as the 2nd largest carrier and is so far out in front that AA will never catch up again because they don't enough slots to do so.

In one market after another that were former AA hubs, DL's share of the market has grown, largely at AA's expense.

In core markets like LGA-DFW, LGA-ORD, LGA-MIA, JFK-LAX and JFK-LHR, DL's share has continued to grow and reaches as high as 33%, markets that DL had a minimal presence in not many years ago, if at all.

DL has gone straight to the jugular of AA's most lucrative routes and continues to win.

If you could show me an equal number of equally high value routes to DL that AA has grown in, then you might have a case that I am just blowing smoke... but you can't because DL has very much succeeded in growing its presence in AA's key routes.

You'd like to believe this isn't true but it very much is...

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

I think I'm getting a crush on DL.  :blush: Like OMG!!!! :blush: :blush: I didn't know DL was sooooooooo cool! :blush: :blush:
 
NOT!
 
How difficult could it be to grow in a market where you had 0 presence (JFK-LHR)?
As far as AA going after DL markets?  Well, I don't know how many people want to travel to Hazard County, but I'm pretty sure DL has that market to itself.
DL going for AA jugular?  Oh please! 
 
Seriously, you need to stop masturbating to the latest copy of DL's inflight mag and get a life.

 

[WorldTraveler]

DL's share of the JFK-LHR market is within a couple of percent of AA's on its own metal.

DL's share of the LGA-MIA market is almost 40% compared to AA's nearly 60%.

Considering DL's domestic revenues are higher than AA's, then apparently DL flies either to a lot more than Hazard County or there is a whole lot of money to be made flying to Hazard County and DL just happened to focus its assets on where to make money.

You tell me... which is it?

 

[FWAAA]

You are right about one thing - this, indeed, isn't "personal."  I've long held what you write in such low regard not because of who you are personally, but because so much of what you post is just such categorically false and laughably biased B.S. wrapped in a layer of rude, sanctimonious and completely unjustified arrogance and certitude.  This whole ridiculous "business" of Delta being at a permanent competitive advantage to AA being but just one classic example.

Amen to that.   

 

[topDawg]

I think I'm getting a crush on DL.  :blush: Like OMG!!!! :blush: :blush: I didn't know DL was sooooooooo cool! :blush: :blush:
 
NOT!
 
How difficult could it be to grow in a market where you had 0 presence (JFK-LHR)?
As far as AA going after DL markets?  Well, I don't know how many people want to travel to Hazard County, but I'm pretty sure DL has that market to itself.
DL going for AA jugular?  Oh please! 
 
Seriously, you need to stop masturbating to the latest copy of DL's inflight mag and get a life.

........really? I know your talking crap about Georgia.....when AA's home is Texas. 
 
because Texas isn't back woods at all. 
 
 
okay back to your pissing contest.  

 

[topDawg]

Well looks like AS isnt going to take this sitting down:
 
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/alaska-airlines-announces-between-salt-130000117.html
 
SEATTLE, Dec. 6, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Alaska Airlines will begin daily nonstop service between Salt Lake City and Portland, Ore., Los Angeles, San Diego and San Jose, Calif., starting June 9, and will add a third nonstop flight to its existing service between Salt Lake City and Seattle. Sale fares on the new flights will be available for booking Tuesday, Dec. 10. Flight times and start dates are listed below.

woohoo. 
maybe now Delta will have to add more mainline to SLC and wont be able to outsource as much.  

 

[Kev3188]

You are right about one thing - this, indeed, isn't "personal."  I've long held what you write in such low regard not because of who you are personally, but because so much of what you post is just such categorically false and laughably biased B.S. wrapped in a layer of rude, sanctimonious and completely unjustified arrogance and certitude.  This whole ridiculous "business" of Delta being at a permanent competitive advantage to AA being but just one classic example.

Well said.

 

[Force Majeure]

DL's share of the JFK-LHR market is within a couple of percent of AA's on its own metal.

http://airchive.com/blog/2013/09/24/analysis-dot-approves-delta-virgin-atlantic-north-atlantic-joint-venture/

"...Delta isnt terribly well represented in the popular NYC-London Heathrow market. Delta didnt even serve London Heathrow until March 2008 the Open Skies agreement was enacted, which allowed other airlines beyond American and United into the strained airport. They only fly three roundtrips between the two cities with their airplanes, representing about 10% of the market. You might think that they couldve simply added more flights to increase their presence, but thats not how it works at London Heathrow (LHR). Heathrow is slot constrained, which means that airlines have to purchase/swap/trade/barter/kill for landing and takeoff times. Since no one usually willfully gives up slots at one of the most lucrative routes on the planet, Delta was left with a problem: demand for London without the ability to create more supply...

...So lets recap: Delta has demand for NYC-London, but basically has zero leverage to increase supply. Delta also has the weakest Heathrow operation of the three major US carriers. Virgin has supply, but has been having trouble creating demand. A joint venture, simplified, allows any two carriers to merge operations under a limited and well defined scope. The table below shows carrier-wise market share in the USA London market."


Carrier --------------- Frequency Share ----------- Market Share
American--------------------18.2%-----------------------15.60%
British Airways--------------40.8% ----------------------45.20%
Delta --------------------------9.2%------------------------- 8.20%
United ------------------------17.2% ------------------------13.10%
Virgin Atlantic ---------------12.5% -----------------------15.00%
Other --------------------------2.1%-------------------------- 2.90%

 

[WorldTraveler]

Sorry, but those numbers are based on passengers carried between LHR and JFK, regardless of their destination.

My data is for actual local JFK-LHR (RT) passengers.

According to US DOT O&D data, AA and DL carry very similar amounts of LOCAL JFK-LHR traffic.

But thanks for linking the article because it notes the DL-VS joint venture which will further increase DL's ability to penetrate the monopoly that AA-BA have had on NYC-LHR for years.

The DL-VS JV will provide the 2nd largest number of seats between the US and LHR.

Let's also remember that AA/BA have to use LHR as their primary European hub which is precisely why such a large percentage of BA traffic on JFK-LHR is connecting beyond LHR.

DL is using LHR solely for LHR traffic because they have AMS and CDG as their primary connecting hubs. There is a definite barrier between the DL-VS and the DL-AF-KL JVs.

You are right about one thing - this, indeed, isn't "personal." I've long held what you write in such low regard not because of who you are personally, but because so much of what you post is just such categorically false and laughably biased B.S. wrapped in a layer of rude, sanctimonious and completely unjustified arrogance and certitude. This whole ridiculous "business" of Delta being at a permanent competitive advantage to AA being but just one classic example.

you do realize that it is precisely these kinds of statements that simply embolden me to gather data and keep it ready to prove that you were wrong.

I have played this game for 10 years now.

I have endured the attacks.

What I have never seen is someone come back and admit that I was right and they were wrong.

You can lash out and line up all the followers you want but the simple fact is that I have repeatedly and accurately communicated major trends that are and will be happening in the airline to the great consternation of a number of people.

Thanks for giving me the incentive to keep "one more file" open.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

WT-to-English Translation:
Sorry, but those numbers do not support my theory.
Therefore, I will now state a pre-condition(s)/disclaimers/qualifiers.
<snip>
DL is now #2 (***carefully chose metric/category***) in ABC and XYZ market.
Lets not forget how DL managed to achieve all of this and if it wanted to could do so much more (world domination).
<snip>
You do realize that I will be making up these kinds of statements and be embolden to obtain selective data to prove to myself that I am right.
I have been fawning over DL ever since I was 10 years old now.
<snip>
I have never admited I am wrong even when other(s) have shown me data otherwise
 
... ... ... now where did I leave my poster of Richard Anderson ... ... ... SCHWING
 

Sorry, but those numbers are based on passengers carried between LHR and JFK, regardless of their destination.

My data is for actual local JFK-LHR (RT) passengers.
 
<snip>
 
The DL-VS JV will provide the 2nd largest number of seats between the US and LHR.

Let's also remember that AA/BA have to use LHR as their primary European hub which is precisely why such a large percentage of BA traffic on JFK-LHR is connecting beyond LHR.

DL is using LHR solely for LHR traffic because they have AMS and CDG as their primary connecting hubs. There is a definite barrier between the DL-VS and the DL-AF-KL JVs.

<snip>

you do realize that it is precisely these kinds of statements that simply embolden me to gather data and keep it ready to prove that you were wrong.

I have played this game for 10 years now.
<snip>

What I have never seen is someone come back and admit that I was right and they were wrong.
 

 

[WorldTraveler]

IOW, you don't have the information to say that I am wrong so you will just resort to personal attacks

I have seen that before.

We all know that DL has a whole lot less seats to sell to LHR. Thus, it becomes very important to know how DL is using the relatively few seats it does have.

In fact, DL carries a higher percentage of LOCAL passengers on the JFK-LHR leg than AA does.... specifically because DL knows they cannot compete in dozens of other cities to LHR that connect via JFK so they maximize the use of seats for the benefit of the local market - which is far larger and where DL does have an advantage over AA/BA in dozens of other markets.

This little side discussion on LHR just goes to show how DL has recognized its weaknesses, developed strategies to correct them to the greatest degree possible, and targeted its strategies where it has the greatest possibility of increasing revenue, often at the expense of competitors.

Thanks for helping highlight the template of exactly what DL will do in SEA to win in AS' home market.

 

[commavia]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Still waiting for that admission that you have not the slightest clue how Generally Accepted Accounting Principles treat goodwill.  But hey, you know, whatever.[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=10.5pt]If you feel the need to appoint yourself the one man crusader for truth and justice in the world of internet airline industry forums, knock yourself out.  I certainly won't stand in your way (and it doesn't seem many others feel the need to, either, judging by how many have apparently placed your posts on "ignore").  By the looks of your "reputation" score, it appears you're still winning popularity contests here just like you were on the last forum you got kicked off of.  I can certainly see why I got so many private messages explaining how you won "Mr. Congeniality" when you worked at Delta.[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=10.5pt]Nonetheless, if you're still so blinded by your own B.S. to recognize the countless times you yourself were proven wrong, and the countless times you have let your own biases blind you from reality, then so be it.  You still seem to believe you have a singular monopoly on "facts" and "data," despite the "fact" that people are constantly using "data" to discredit your brilliant arguments.  Again, whatever.[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=10.5pt]As for the topic in question here, your characteristic denial notwithstanding, Delta does, in fact, have some pretty substantive strategic challenges of their own to contend with in the next few years - chief among them being figuring out how to replace their unsustainable hub at NRT with an Asian hub in SEA despite the fact that they not only don't control SEA but don't even control the source of much of their feed there.  I'm sure they'll figure something out - and I'm sure when they do you'll be here to fill us all in with reports on how it somehow proves that AA is doomed to fail.  Until then, I'll wait breathlessly for the update.[/SIZE]