WorldTraveler
Corn Field
- Dec 5, 2003
- 21,709
- 10,662
- Banned
- #46
a quarter still has 3 months.
DL forecast a higher quarterly RASM which it did not make based on its monthly reports.
the day before DL reported its March traffic and RASM report, at least one analyst said that EACH ONE of the big 3 would have currency related revenue issues.
The only likely way those analysts could have known is by looking at advance booking reports which were bought from GDSs.
They did not make that observation just about DL but about EACH ONE of the big 3.
We have yet to see the RASM reports from other carriers and I will treat you to lunch if they made their RASM.
AA and UA don't give monthly RASM updates any more and will likely only have to give earnings guidance changes if earnings change, which they are not likely to do because fuel prices have come down again.
It is only chest thumping and not facts to say that AA and UA gave better guidance because they haven't revealed their results.
Given that their stock was downgraded and performed worse yesterday than DL's, the chances are very high that they will be affected by a weaker dollar WORSE than or least equal to DL
and the only region where DL reported a decline in RPMs is the Pacific where DL has repeatedly said that the weak yen is hurting DL and why they have moved the 744s nearly completely out of Japan eve while expanding its network to other places in Asia, including PVG.
In contrast, it appears that AA is replacing 777s with 787 service to PVG. That will certainly help AA's operational profitability as it develops Asia but it continues to beg the question which I have repeatedly raised as to where AA is going to redeploy its 777s if it keeps replacing them with 787s on the Pacific. I would not be the least bit surprised if AA starts writing down the value of some 777s and parking them. There simply is not enough growth in AA's int'l network to support the volume of int'l capacity that is coming online in the next couple years.
and a write down of existing aircraft - unless AA has enough older 777s that they don't have to write them down - will affect AA's profitability.
When all of the financial reports are released later this month, we can compare revenues.
btw, you might also be prepared to accept that AA and UA might well see their overall revenues decrease because they are not increasing capacity enough to offset weaker yields.
and AA still has a $650 million impaired currency issue in Venezuela on its books that it will have to deal with at some point while DL will be thru with writing off its bad hedges perhaps as soon as this quarter unless oil falls further.
Unlike you, I make my statements based on actual facts even if they change with market conditions.
DL forecast a higher quarterly RASM which it did not make based on its monthly reports.
the day before DL reported its March traffic and RASM report, at least one analyst said that EACH ONE of the big 3 would have currency related revenue issues.
The only likely way those analysts could have known is by looking at advance booking reports which were bought from GDSs.
They did not make that observation just about DL but about EACH ONE of the big 3.
We have yet to see the RASM reports from other carriers and I will treat you to lunch if they made their RASM.
AA and UA don't give monthly RASM updates any more and will likely only have to give earnings guidance changes if earnings change, which they are not likely to do because fuel prices have come down again.
It is only chest thumping and not facts to say that AA and UA gave better guidance because they haven't revealed their results.
Given that their stock was downgraded and performed worse yesterday than DL's, the chances are very high that they will be affected by a weaker dollar WORSE than or least equal to DL
and the only region where DL reported a decline in RPMs is the Pacific where DL has repeatedly said that the weak yen is hurting DL and why they have moved the 744s nearly completely out of Japan eve while expanding its network to other places in Asia, including PVG.
In contrast, it appears that AA is replacing 777s with 787 service to PVG. That will certainly help AA's operational profitability as it develops Asia but it continues to beg the question which I have repeatedly raised as to where AA is going to redeploy its 777s if it keeps replacing them with 787s on the Pacific. I would not be the least bit surprised if AA starts writing down the value of some 777s and parking them. There simply is not enough growth in AA's int'l network to support the volume of int'l capacity that is coming online in the next couple years.
and a write down of existing aircraft - unless AA has enough older 777s that they don't have to write them down - will affect AA's profitability.
When all of the financial reports are released later this month, we can compare revenues.
btw, you might also be prepared to accept that AA and UA might well see their overall revenues decrease because they are not increasing capacity enough to offset weaker yields.
and AA still has a $650 million impaired currency issue in Venezuela on its books that it will have to deal with at some point while DL will be thru with writing off its bad hedges perhaps as soon as this quarter unless oil falls further.
Unlike you, I make my statements based on actual facts even if they change with market conditions.
