Yes, there are things I don't like about this. For one example, unlimited Alaska codeshare. What the %&$*? We however are in a bad position. The east is on LOA93, the west is stagnant, and our union is parked with an injunction on it. CoC can be gotten around. What will a no vote do? I would say with 99% certainty it will lead to us being parked in the corner on our current contracts and the end result will be the same. I wish Luv were right and that we had leverage, but we don't. Even if we could effect the merger, what would be the threat? Give us what we want or we'll $%#$ up the merger and the only chance we will have at getting a decent contract? I hope the east posters on here are voting no becuase they feel we can get more and not because they are afraid this will kill DOH.
Bean
Bean,
Some on here have labeled me a malcontent .
I begin this rant by stating I personally have no expertise or desire to affect negotiations ( in a union officer position ) or I would have long ago gone that route. So I'll think out loud here w/o prior precise editing of every word and # .
My experience however exposes me to 3 decades of union participation as a member.
Coincidentally have a minor in union labor relations with family involved in union leadership and a father who professionally negotiated major purchases for GM his entire career.
I assume that accounting requires ongoing education as our job does.
I also know that there are many studies and courses on negotiations that utilize all sorts of
" EXPECTATION " analysis / strategy . Google away if in doubt.
I may be an unrealistic " never give up " kind of guy but your post reeks of surrender.
That does irritate me as I really distaste being BLUFFED off a winning hand.
True enuff a possible overall increase this mou offers your personal financial situation and definitely mine. I know that !!!
That said........to this moment I am not convinced that the sum of near term potential bennies prior to a jcba and the sum of bennies over next 6 years in this mou are greater than stand alone or re-negotiated mou alternatives.
I know your a numbers guy. Let me use myself and rounded numbers and some hypothetical date.
Jan 1, 2014 ED and I'm owed 17G after taxes. Add to that the 5G in sign on bonus.
So I'm 22G ahead in spendable income +/- other ramifications of mou.
Did I really say " winning hand " above. Well we really don't know yet as of yet , do we?
It's clearly Mgt's job to convince us our hand if far weaker than theirs.
They have far more expertise hired to achieve above than we do. It's clearly a stacked deck against us and that doesn't even factor the utterly pathetic government agencies negatively affecting our desired results. Case in point......awa mgt record of past / current negotiation in any group.
So back to my risk/reward analysis. If I'm wrong and get zippo till a jcba I lose the above plus $ earned in ED to jcba period. Lets call that 8G for a easy # of 30G total.
IMO my hand represents:
A- major leverage in COC
B- my opponent(s) want deal NOW and far more than I want it
C- my/your current contract has long ago been amendable
D- mgt has run out of BS negotiation delay tactics
The above and much more can and should deliver us a contract we deserve.
To conclude I currently think a NO vote outweighs the 30G loss with a realistic industry standard contract going forward as a stand alone with near term attrition upgrade ( netting > 30g ) and if a merge then APA has our contract leverage as well. Yup I'm an eternal optimist as I refuse to let mgt manipulate my expectations!
FA