DAL has best earnings upside revisions in industry

[WorldTraveler]

yes.. the recent increase has been entirely due to DL's cabin mods. While DL's competitors are getting rid of older aircraft and any hope of maintenance jobs for years, DL is outsourcing the cabin mods but giving DL maintenance the chance to do maintenance on those aircraft.

and you still can't debate that AA plus US' rate of outsourcing using the very same data that you use for DL is almost identical to DL's level on a weighted average basis for the size of AA relative to US.

And DL's level did take a big hit when NW's statistics were included with DL's post-merger and after the AMFA strike and NW's virtual elimination of inhouse maintenance.

 

[topDawg]

yes.. the recent increase has been entirely due to DL's cabin mods. While DL's competitors are getting rid of older aircraft and any hope of maintenance jobs for years, DL is outsourcing the cabin mods but giving DL maintenance the chance to do maintenance on those aircraft.

Delta use to do cabin mods in house. AVOD on the 737s. Winglets on the 737. Lie-flats on the 764s and 777. 
 
You know who does that work now(57/67 winglets plus the other stuff)? Not Delta 
 
Clue me in on what that has to do with NW? 
 
Oh they let Delta do the maintenance on the airplanes........
 
So that is why HMVs are sent out? V2500, BR715, CFM56-5A, PW4000-100, CF6s, GE90s, Trent 800s, Trent WXBs, Trent 7000s......... 320/330/777/717 landing gear. 777/330/320/717  APUs....... CF6-80C2 TRs, Trent 800 TRs, GE90 TRs... etc. etc. etc. etc. 
 

And DL's level did take a big hit when NW's statistics were included with DL's post-merger and after the AMFA strike and NW's virtual elimination of inhouse maintenance.

How long you going to ride that train? Okay, NW dumped its MX.....so that means the FAA wont allow Delta to bring it in-house? 

 

[WorldTraveler]

Neither NW or DL had over 100 widebodies on which the entire cabins had to be refurbed. Your bosses said that DL did not have the capacity to do that amount of work inhouse.

DL also says they don't can't be cost competitive with the airframe overhauls relative to the work DL does insource... which you never seem to want to mention is more than any other airline in the Americas and likely worth more than all other US airlines combined.

I want to see more of that work done inhouse... but I am and a whole lot of other DL mechanics don't expect DL to do everything as much as I want to make sure they protect the jobs of every current FT mechanic and find as much work for other carriers which DL can do.

you need to take up your arguments about what specific work DL doesn't do with your superiors. Dl clearly does a whole lot of work for both DL and other carriers which you fail to acknowledge they do while you continue to harp on outsourcing which every carrier including AA/US does in similar if not greater percentages than DL.

 

[topDawg]

Neither NW or DL had over 100 widebodies on which the entire cabins had to be refurbed. Your bosses said that DL did not have the capacity to do that amount of work inhouse.

where? 
Was that before or after they gave two bays in MSP up? So they have two bays to give up but no space to do work? 
 

DL also says they don't can't be cost competitive with the airframe overhauls relative to the work DL does insource... which you never seem to want to mention is more than any other airline in the Americas and likely worth more than all other US airlines combined.

Do you remember that power point I posted that has the vendor list on it? It also has a graph that points to Delta is LOSING MONEY outsourcing what it does. I know for a fact that is why one of the managers went all the way up to Anderson to get the 330 c-checks in-house. Every person below said the same stupid crap you did. "cost to much" 
 
but again, forget the overhauls (that everyone other US airline does in-house for at least 1 fleet type but most doe two or more but Delta, with lower costs seem to think they can't). What about the APUs? the engines? the landing gear? 
 
They can do the CFM56-5B, CFM56-7Bs in house but not the CFM56-5A? hmmmm funny how that works. 
 

I want to see more of that work done inhouse... but I am and a whole lot of other DL mechanics don't expect DL to do everything as much as I want to make sure they protect the jobs of every current FT mechanic and find as much work for other carriers which DL can do.

Protecting every "current" FT job is the stupidest thing I have heard. I want to protect ever future FT job. 
 

you need to take up your arguments about what specific work DL doesn't do with your superiors. Dl clearly does a whole lot of work for both DL and other carriers which you fail to acknowledge they do while you continue to harp on outsourcing which every carrier including AA/US does in similar if not greater percentages than DL.

I don't fail to acknowledge anything. 
 
I am happy TechOps does the work it does for others. Unlike you I see the potential for Delta to do work for others. The 330 checks are a perfect example. How long did it take for Delta to get a contract for 330 c-checks after they announced they were bringing that work in-house? 
Look at all the V2500s in the US that have to be sent to Europe or Australia for overhaul?
How many airbus landing gear have to get sent out of the country for overhaul?
 
I want to see TechOps grow. Insourcing is a big part of that. 

 

[WorldTraveler]

first, are you sure that winglets are considered cabin mods.

and 2nd, DL had no choice but to take not only the cabin mods out of the company because of the sheer volume of the number of aircraft but because much of NW's maintenance was wiped out by the time DL and NW merged.

why don't you ask why DL bothers to do any outside work for any other airline. you never seem to want to acknowledge that DL insources nor do you ask why other carriers don't do it.

feel free to argue that you are protecting future jobs. Your coworkers aren't much interested in the future when they look at their peers at other airlines having more and more maintenance outsourced.

and when WN, which is supposed to be the gold standard for union cooperation has the highest amount of maintenance outsourcing among the big 4, it is hard to argue that in-house maintenance is either essential for an airline's success or that unions have been much help in protecting that work.

I want to see Tech Ops grow as well doing both inhouse and insourcing work. and I have every reason to believe it will because DL is taking a different course that its peer airlines in the US.

 

[700UW]

Sending out one plane to SIN at time isn't shear volume.

 

[WorldTraveler]

DL had multiple aircraft in various facilities at a time.

despite what some believe, DL still has to run its regular maintenance operation supporting its active operating fleet even while doing cabin mods.

 

[topDawg]

first, are you sure that winglets are considered cabin mods.

Did I say the are cabin mods? no but it is a big mod Delta has sent out. (and yes, some of the winglet mods are done at the same time. ie 753 and some 763s. )
 

and 2nd, DL had no choice but to take not only the cabin mods out of the company because of the sheer volume of the number of aircraft but because much of NW's maintenance was wiped out by the time DL and NW merged.

Okay, so just stop talking. Please. You are now just looking like a fool. 
 
Why do I have to constantly repeat stuff to you? 
 
AGAIN Delta gave up TWO bays in MSP and still have the room to do 767 and A330 C-checks. 
 
but you are telling me that they don't have the room to do cabin mods. (which would have been done before the 330 c-checks came in-house) 
 
So WT, just tell us how much room Delta has. What hangar bays do what and how full they are. You can start in Atlanta then go up to minny......
 

why don't you ask why DL bothers to do any outside work for any other airline. you never seem to want to acknowledge that DL insources nor do you ask why other carriers don't do it.

Hey look everyone, WT is having problems reading again. Yay us!
Let me try this again, see if it clicks. "I am happy TechOps does the work it does for others."

However, because they do UPS winglets on 767s doesn't give them a pass with me to send Delta work out.
 

feel free to argue that you are protecting future jobs. Your coworkers aren't much interested in the future when they look at their peers at other airlines having more and more maintenance outsourced.

Speaking for my coworkers yet again eh?
So please give me some data backing this up. 
 

and when WN, which is supposed to be the gold standard for union cooperation has the highest amount of maintenance outsourcing among the big 4, it is hard to argue that in-house maintenance is either essential for an airline's success or that unions have been much help in protecting that work.

No WN is not the gold standard for pay. 5X and FX is. 
 
but again, Delta isn't WN. Delta isn't FX and Delta isn't 5X. 
All I know is that all the carriers you are constantly harping about as having higher costs do some HMVs in-house. UA does 737/A320. AA does MD80, 737, 757, 767 and A320s WN does 737s. Delta does
 
 
none. 
 
 
with much lower costs. 
 
That tells me you are full of poop. 

I want to see Tech Ops grow as well doing both inhouse and insourcing work. and I have every reason to believe it will because DL is taking a different course that its peer airlines in the US.

 No you don't. you want whatever is the flavor of the month at Delta. If they shut TechOps completely down tomorrow you would be here spinning away as how thankful I should be to be hitting the streets. I mean after all........ PROFIT SHARING!!!!!! 
 

Sending out one plane to SIN at time isn't shear volume.

Exactly. Again we have a case of WT talking and not knowing what he is talking about. I mean I only do this sh*t for a living........

 

[topDawg]

DL had multiple aircraft in various facilities at a time.

despite what some believe, DL still has to run its regular maintenance operation supporting its active operating fleet even while doing cabin mods.

Delta has empty bays in places like MSP. Even at times bays in Atlanta are empty. 
 
could they have done every single cabin mod at once? I don't know. Probably not. Could they have done some of them? yep. 

 

[WorldTraveler]

what YOU tell ME is that you want to harp on every negative thing about what DL does while failing to acknowledge the positive that DL does - including the level of insourcing that is far larger than what any other airline in the Americas does.

If you calculated DL's net level of outsourcing as the level of outsourcing work on their own fleet minus what they get in insourced revenue, DL has THE LOWEST rate of outsourcing of any large airline.

When you consider that AA is rapidly increasing the amount of overhaul outsourcing, don't look to any union-represented passenger airline in the US as providing any example that DL mechanics want to follow.

I want DL to do as much work in-house as possible. I have repeatedly said that.

all of the empty bays don't matter given that DL would have to hire hundreds of mechanics to do that work - which isn't necessarily going to be here for years and years.

you should know by now that DL doesn't commit to hiring FT employees if they can't ensure that they can be retained for the long term based on every amount of known information at the time the hiring decisions are made.

Mod work IS NOT long term work. Given that DL is buying enough new aircraft that its maintenance needs are going to decline - which is exactly what is happening at other US airlines as well - no US airline is increasing the net number of people in maintenance in any significant measure.

but you would also do well to consider that DL's decision to buy more used aircraft increases the need for mechanics compared to AA and UA which are buying a much higher percentage of new aircraft.

Feel free to hold onto AA as an example but even when you combine AA and US' level of maintenance outsourcing TODAY, DL still looks comparable - and in a few years, I strongly predict - and yes I will bet you - that DL will have the lowest level of outsourcing among large US airlines.

 

[topDawg]

what YOU tell ME is that you want to harp on every negative thing about what DL does while failing to acknowledge the positive that DL does - including the level of insourcing that is far larger than what any other airline in the Americas does.

No. I generally have to post the negative because you are just wrong. 
 
If it wasn't for people like me and Kev everyone around here would think Delta is all roses, rainbows and unicorns. 
 
But I have highlights plenty of positives too. In my last two post on this thread I have highlighted how much MRO work TechOps does. 
 
Your problem is if ANYONE post ANYTHING negative about your beloved Delta then they just die and burn in hell. The problem with that is most of the time you are talking right out of your ass. 
 
as it is, TechOps is stuck around 500M-600M a year. They were suspose to be over a billion a while ago. A KEY reason why they are stuck is because the lack of product offering. Being a big PW2000/PW4000/CF6 MRO is basically useless at this point. I said before that that Delta is really pissing away a huge, huge, huge growth market in two engine types they send out. The V2500 and the GE90. While I understand that Delta only having 20 GE90s makes it kind of hard to have a engine line for it(not impossible. one of the largest CF34 shops in the world and not a single one of those engines fly for Delta) but not bringing the V2500s in house (when they have over 100 of them on wing in the Delta fleet) is a big mistake IMO. The 219 is already a Delta only engine. The 2000 line will end up being that way, and if it wasn't for UPS and FedEx the 4000 and CF6 lines would be drying up. 
 
Same issue for big time components. 757/767/MD88 landing gear MRO is going to start drying up. Then what......? (hint....check out United's SFO base) 
 

If you calculated DL's net level of outsourcing as the level of outsourcing work on their own fleet minus what they get in insourced revenue, DL has THE LOWEST rate of outsourcing of any large airline.

Doesn't work that way. 
Why? Well because then you have to count AA MRO work. I believe that AA, TAESL and AAMRO calculated together would mean they do more work. The problem their is, because you can't figure out how TAESL works you don't want to count it.
secondly, we are talking about Delta work, done by Delta people. I am not talking about what other work Delta does.
 
Delta could do every single maintenance item for every US airline and I would still be sitting here unhappy that Delta is sending work like HMVs, engine overhauls and mod work out. A big reason for that is all i hear is about that cost advantage but they aren't using it. 
 

When you consider that AA is rapidly increasing the amount of overhaul outsourcing, don't look to any union-represented passenger airline in the US as providing any example that DL mechanics want to follow.

I'm sorry, what work exactly is AA increasing for overhauls? Last I heard they were bringing 767/757 overhauls back in-house. The only fleet they send out now is the 777s. 
 
and as I have told you before, we have yet to see how the merger works out for them. Generally, though, you will see US work that is sent out brought in if AA does that work. That is part of driving down costs. Also because AA is making billions It is going to be fairly hard for them to get large outsourcing. It was easy in BK, now not so much. 
 

I want DL to do as much work in-house as possible. I have repeatedly said that.

No you don't. you want Delta to do whatever is the flavor of the month. Like i said, HMVs could come back in tomorrow and we would hear how great it is. On the flip side Delta could pull a Northwest and I, then unemployed would be hearing about how happy I should be. 
 
As i keep repeating, you have made it clear to everyone here this is just a big pissing contest for you. I don't honestly believe that you give the smallest of single s**ts about a single Delta Air Lines employee. Not one. 
 

all of the empty bays don't matter given that DL would have to hire hundreds of mechanics to do that work - which isn't necessarily going to be here for years and years.

So now you are saying Delta is paying hangar rent for empty bay, unstaffed bays? 
 
lol it is amazing to me how you act like you know so much, but yet how little you know. 
 

you should know by now that DL doesn't commit to hiring FT employees if they can't ensure that they can be retained for the long term based on every amount of known information at the time the hiring decisions are made.

I don't disagree here. I don't think i have suggested anything that would cause great flexing in staffing.  
 

Mod work IS NOT long term work. Given that DL is buying enough new aircraft that its maintenance needs are going to decline - which is exactly what is happening at other US airlines as well - no US airline is increasing the net number of people in maintenance in any significant measure.

Mod work is long term work. you will almost always have something, some kind of mod, going on. Be it things like cabin work or winglets, or wifi, or cockpit mods or whatever. 
 
and for a good bit of the mods they can be tied into other checks. You can do a 767 winglet during a c-check...... (did a few for LAN like that) 
 

but you would also do well to consider that DL's decision to buy more used aircraft increases the need for mechanics compared to AA and UA which are buying a much higher percentage of new aircraft.

Wait didn't you just say above Delta is buying new airplanes and reducing head count.....
 
lol you contradict yourself in the same post. Good work.  
 

Feel free to hold onto AA as an example but even when you combine AA and US' level of maintenance outsourcing TODAY, DL still looks comparable - and in a few years, I strongly predict - and yes I will bet you - that DL will have the lowest level of outsourcing among large US airlines.

what is a few years? 

 

[WorldTraveler]

no one said that DL is all unicorns and roses.

you are the exception in being unable to even acknowledge what DL does well.

You simply don't want to acknowledge that DL cannot be all things to all people and you refuse to accept that the work they bring inhouse is worth more to DL employees than the work they send out. your statement validates that.

the world the way you want it doesn't exist. Not at DL and not at any other airline.

And AA will bring some work inhouse that US has outsourced on a short term basis but AA is sending work out that it has done inhouse - some of the same work that you have criticized DL for sending out - so it is doubtful at best that AA will end up with a higher level of total inhouse maintenance.

DL is not going to be doing the level of cabin mods that it has done over the past few years or will do over the next year or two that it takes to finish the narrowbody mods. New aircraft will be delivered from the factory as older aircraft are retired and the new aircraft will come with the new features that DL decides to incorporate.

and while predictable this thread has become another labor whinefest, aside from the bad hedges, DL did have a very good quarter and 2015 looks just as good if not better.

specifically, DL's revenue initiatives are working and are generating the returns necessary to increase the pay of DL employees at the rate that has occurred in the past.

AA reports tomorrow to wind up this cycle of earnings reports for the largest airlines in the US industry.

 

[jcw]

Maybe one could start by listing the challenges DL has

 

[topDawg]

You simply don't want to acknowledge that DL cannot be all things to all people and you refuse to accept that the work they bring inhouse is worth more to DL employees than the work they send out. your statement validates that

What does that mean? I have explained to before that this is also not even remotely close to correct. 
If Delta went to 100% in-house base maintenance, in other words all work that isn't done in the outstations on the line is done in-house, and lost every single drop of MRO work, not only would it not cause a single job loss......the hiring Delta would have to do would be in the THOUSANDS. JUST for the airframe HMVs alone we are talking at about 3,000 to 4,000 people. When you add in things like a seat shop, all the TRs sent out, All the APUs sent out, 5 types of landing gear, 4 new engine lines (along with bringing in the CFM56-5As which would require the the staffing for basically another engine line), cabin equipment shops, Engine support for those in-house engines.......I could see it causing Delta to almost double the cutting TechOps staffing. 
 
You think the MRO side is worth 10,000 employees? uh.....not even close buddy.  
 
Also note that the PW4168 and CF6-80E1 probably wouldn't cause much increase in staffing. The 4168 would fill into the 4000 line in place of all the 744 PW4000s going away and the E1s are only 20 or so engines. Both would go down the same line as the smaller PW4000-94 and CF6-80C2s 
 
 

And AA will bring some work inhouse that US has outsourced on a short term basis but AA is sending work out that it has done inhouse - some of the same work that you have criticized DL for sending out - so it is doubtful at best that AA will end up with a higher level of total inhouse maintenance.

Like what exactly? 
 
 

DL is not going to be doing the level of cabin mods that it has done over the past few years or will do over the next year or two that it takes to finish the narrowbody mods. New aircraft will be delivered from the factory as older aircraft are retired and the new aircraft will come with the new features that DL decides to incorporate.

But didn't you say something about used airplanes? They need mods too........... 
 

and while predictable this thread has become another labor whinefest, aside from the bad hedges, DL did have a very good quarter and 2015 looks just as good if not better.

labor whinefest....and you ask why we say you hate labor...... 

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

Exactly. Again we have a case of WT talking and not knowing what he is talking about. I mean I only do this sh*t for a living........

 
Although WT posts are painful to read, it is so much fun watching him being caught in a lie.  Or watching  WT to present himself as an expert in everything - until it is pointed out how incorrect he is.  Then the fun begins as he tries and tries to spin his way out - although usually with his BS he just digs the hole deeper and deeper. 
 
Ofcourse when all else fails the deflect and change the subject works too.