Crude Oil And Its Effect On Us Airways

Oil can be bought from OPEC only if you have dollars. Non-oil producing countries, such as most underdeveloped countries and Japan, first have to sell their goods to earn dollars with which they can purchase oil. If they cannot earn enough dollars, then they have to borrow dollars from the WB/IMF, which have to be paid back, with interest, in dollars. This creates a great demand for dollars outside the U.S. In contrast, the U.S. only has to print dollar bills in exchange for goods. Even for its own oil imports, the U.S. can print dollar bills without exporting or selling its goods. For instance, in 2003 the current U.S. account deficit and external debt has been running at more than $500 billion. Put in simple terms, the U.S. will receive $500 billion more in goods and services from other countries than it will provide them. The imported goods are paid by printing dollar bills, i.e., "fiat" dollars

If OPEC oil could be sold in other currencies, e.g. the euro, then U.S. economic dominance-dollar imperialism or hegemony-would be seriously challenged. More and more oil importing countries would acquire the euro as their "reserve," its value would increase, and a larger amount of trade would be transacted and denominated in euros. In such circumstances, the value of the dollar would most likely go down, some speculate between 20-40 percent

Source
 
Let's put the vaunted OPEC production increase in perspective.

1. The current OPEC production quota (excluding Iraq which is exempt currently) is 27 million bbls/day.
2. Actual current production is 27.7 million bbls/day.
3. Proposed quota increase is 500,000 bbls/day immediately with an additional 500,000 bbls/day quota increase in May.
4. As actual production is already 700,000 bbls/day over the quota, raising the quota by a million bbs/day will only bring 300,000 additional bbls of oil to the market. Proposed total increase 1.08% over current production.
5. Oil prices currently hovering around $55/bbl.
6. Desired price $40-45/bbl.

Does anyone in their right mind believe that a 1.08% increase in production will result in an 18% ($45/bbl) to 27% ($40/bbl) drop in price?

The proposed OPEC production increase is nothing more than political posturing. The Algerian oil minister implied as much in this morning's New York Times.
"Chakib Khelil, Algeria's oil minister, said that his office had received a message from Washington asking for OPEC to act. "They are encouraging us to help ease the markets," Mr. Khelil said. "They'd rather prices be lower. But stocks are high, demand grows and prices remain high. It's not our fault. What do you want us to do about this?"

Link to NY Times article (May require registration, but it is free.)
 
Now at $56.30! Maybe the song is Nahnahnahnah! Nahnahnahnah! Hey! Hey! Hey! Goodbye!

Who wants to start a guess as to when it hits $60? I think sometime in June.
 
320 on oil
March 9 2005
320 quote says: In regard to energy prices today NYMEX crude oil prices saw very interesting market action. During the past few day’s prices broke through resistance at about $53 per barrel and today rose within two cents of all time highs soaring to $55.65 per barrel and then sold off into the close. Although final Futures settlement prices are not yet complete, the closing price will be about $54.50, down over $1 per barrel from its high.

From a technical analysis perspective this would indicate futures prices may have hit a new resistance level. During the past 10 days crude oil prices are up over 10% and at some point traders will have to sell their contracts to take their profits, which would lower oil and jet fuel prices.
 
Here's a link to BTS's fuel price paid chart for the industry. It doesn't inflation adjust prices and only goes thru Jan05.

Chart

Jim
 
whlinder said:
Oil hit the mid 60s in the early 1980s, measured in 2004 dollars.
[post="256154"][/post]​

That is a good point. I heard if you adjusted gas prices at the pump in 1981 for inflation...it would have been over $3. Either way, U cannot last long in this fight with oil this expensive. Best. Greeter.
 

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