Conversation With Lakefeild On Thurs In Clt

[pitguy]

One has to wonder when reading some of the posts if U always insisted on a high school diploma and tested for basic reading and writing skills.


-Although do agree somewhat with the basic intent of the posting though since it is what I have stated on here for awhile regarding to the June demise. I do not see United buying anything though... and there are work groups being asked to give more money, so I contend that statment to be false.

 

[Zeus]

The only item that etops1 got right was that fuel is killing us ...but it is killing everyone else as well.

 

[PSA1979]

The only item that etops1 got right was that fuel is killing us ...but it is killing everyone else as well.

[post="258875"][/post]​

Are you calling Lakefield a liar?

 

[PITbull]

Some of it is true. However, I am surprised he spoke about AW. That is an SEC violation and should not be taken as a sure thing, even with troublesome United.
Trust, fuel is apt to kill them too. We'll be going off that cliff holding hands.

The guy is down to earth only because he has not a CLUE of what is going on around him. He depends on other officers to make decisions, and he just mouth pieces it. He only knows what Crellin and Glass tell him, and let him know when he is to jump, walk, crawl, beg.

There is NO leadership here. This managment has accomplished to destroy this airline, and not that they had planned that initially. I believe with all the external factors involved along with the low morale of labor, all factors have created a recipe for failure.

AFA will be meeting with managment regarding reforming the DCP and the damn medical leave forced separation issues with our members.

If there is no movement for improvement, there will be NO change in f/a morale and it will be one more to add to the demise of the carrier.

One thing about Lakefiled, if your talking to him, he tends to be convinced and agrees, then the next person talks to him and he tends to be convinced forgetting everything he spoke to you about.

Yup, that's our experience. :down: Loser.

 

[Peeky]

This may be a stupid question but why doesn't U and the other majors raise ticket prices to offset the fuel costs? Everyone is in the same boat, except Southwest who hedged, and they only have so many seats to sell. Fuel costs at an all time high and airline tickets cost at an all time low. What's wrong with that picture?

 

[airbiiguy]

the cheap american consumer wont fly then. if we dont sell some tix right now at this moment we wont survive past april or may.

 

[ClueByFour]

My point exactly. Acquiring pieces of an airline is certainly doable, but frankly no legacy airline has management good enough to persuade creditors to front $2B to cover the integration costs of a full merger.

[post="258863"][/post]​

Where (besides thin air) is this mythical $2B number coming from?

 

[avek00]

Where (besides thin air) is this mythical $2B number coming from?

[post="258894"][/post]​

It ain't mythical per se, but rather based upon the experience of the most recent US legacy airline combination, AA/TWA. When AA acquired TWA's assets, it spent approximately $740 million for acquisition, but some $1.5 billion to integrate TWA into American's operations, according to various financial filings. Given the larger size and complexity of the other legacies in comparison to TWA, $2 billion is a reasonable estimate as to how much cash an acquiring airline can expect to spend in fully integrating a wholly acquired airline. A partial acquisition of an airline would of course carry far lower integration costs.

 

[funguy2]

I don't disagree with anything either Winglet or Rob said, but I can see 1 possible rational for UA acquiring US - if it could be done cheap like via a stock swap.

Boeing BoY:

I don't disagree with the rationale or logic. But, what stock? UAL is still trading its old pre-BK stock... It is unclear at this time whether or not that stock will be cancelled. Surely US Airways BOD won't sell-out for a potentially worthless stock?

Otherwise, UAL would have to be close to a POR in order to include the acquistion of US Airways into a UAL POR. But I believe UAL is saying a fall 2005 exit from BK at earliest. If you believe etops1's reported comments by Bruce Lakefield, he says the airline will be out of cash by June... Making a US Airways acquision as part of a fall 2005 POR a mute point.

 

[usair_begins_with_u]

the cheap american consumer wont fly then. if we dont sell some tix right now at this moment we wont survive past april or may.

Thats right.. when your business model fails, blame the market not the model??

 

[SVQLBA]

UAL can't afford to buy this place and neither can AMR.. On top of that they don't want it. What does US Airways offer them? Nothing.. AMR needs an Airbus fleet like it needs a hole in its head..

[post="258856"][/post]​

The phrase "leveraged buyout" comes to mind. I'm no corporate finance expert, but, hypothetically, I could envisage scenarios like creating a new solvent 3rd company, that acquires (for a nominal amount) and then takes on the debt (restructured and renegotiated) for U and UAL. As I say, I'm no expert, so 1001 reasons why that might not be the mechanism, but I'm sure there are mechanisms possible other than UAL corp shelling out money and assuming the debt of U

Integration costs for UAL would be extremely high..

[post="258856"][/post]​

But, maybe less than they would have been in 2000/2001 when U/UA Mk1 was attempted. (1) There will be lower IT systems integration costs because they now have the codeshare in place, which helps a good deal with the initial part of systems migration and integration the customer-facing side of things. However, that doesn't mean the remaining IT integration costs are insignificant. (2) Fleet integration cost will be lower, simply because both the U and UA fleets now have fewer types and fewer numbers of each type. (3) As part of the code share, some airport locations have already been co-located to some degree, further reducing integration costs.

Just to be clear, integration costs would still be high -- just maybe not quite as high as last time they ran the numbers.

 

[Fly]

I'm waiting with baited breath for USA320Pilot to get home from his trip.

 

[EyeInTheSky]

This is an old article, but, perhaps, worth reading one more time. Is Washington about to emulate this "ancient Chinese secret"? What do you think?

China hopes mergers will turn its airlines into global players

SHANGHAI, China (AP) — They're courting business travelers from abroad. They're preparing for the millions of increasingly cosmopolitan Chinese looking to go overseas in coming years. They're talking about onboard massages and haircuts.

In China's airline industry, ambitions are flying as high as the aircraft.

Chinese aviation officials have pushed through a wave of mergers streamlining an increasingly crowded industry to create three larger airline groups.

Authorities want the new companies to compete directly with international carriers by expanding fleets, improving service and shedding their image as cut-rate carriers for travelers on shoestring budgets.

"The goal is to form big civil aviation service groups that are competitive in world markets," said Ma Songwei, a spokesman for the aviation administration.

The reshuffling in October folded six small, low-earning airlines into the country's three largest carriers to form the Air China Group, China Eastern Air Group and Southern Airlines Group.
The government-ordered mergers, which airline officials said were resisted within the industry, handed the three new groups an overwhelming share of one of the world's fastest-growing air markets.

Together, they now fly more than 80% of passengers on China's domestic and international routes, analysts say. Twenty-two smaller Chinese airlines split the remainder.

The new big three are also the only companies allowed to offer regular overseas service, while other Chinese airlines are restricted to charters. Chinese airlines now operate about 190 international routes.

The mergers coincide with deregulation of air fares, which Beijing hopes will force companies to be leaner and more efficient. By 2004, airlines will price their own tickets within a range 40% above or below an official base rate.

Chicago-based Boeing and Europe's Airbus are counting on China's fleet expansions to offset slowing demand elsewhere. They have estimated Chinese airlines will quadruple the size of their current fleets by buying 1,600 new aircraft over the next two decades.

The new aircraft will be needed to keep pace with the Chinese market's soaring annual growth rates of more than 10%, analysts said. Last year, Chinese airlines handled 75 million passengers, compared with about 400 million passengers in the United States, according to the General Administration of Civil Aviation, which regulates the industry.

"In 20 years, China will pass the U.S. in size" to become the world's largest market, said Philip Wickham, regional aviation analyst in Hong Kong for Dutch investment bank ING.

The big three Chinese groups should have a firm grip on Chinese tourism, one of the fastest-growing segments of the international travel market, Wickham said. Tens of millions of Chinese are expected to travel abroad in coming years as incomes rise among the country's 1.3 billion people.

Chinese airline officials also said they hope to compete for foreign passengers by introducing more modern aircraft and expanding code-sharing and frequent flyer programs.

China Eastern, for instance, plans to target foreign business-class travelers with larger seats, private movie screens and novel on-board services like haircuts and massages, said Luo Zhuping, secretary to China Eastern's board of directors.

The airline is hiring foreign flight attendants to close the gap in service with larger foreign rivals, Luo said. He said his group, which operates about 50 flights outside mainland China and flies to Los Angeles and Paris, hopes to further expand overseas service and add prime destinations like London and New York.

"China Eastern will be a world-class airline in five years," Luo said.

He said the mergers will take about a year to complete. The six smaller companies will continue to operate under their own names until late next year.

The government had pushed the mergers for more than a year to correct a problem created in the 1980s when China's sole government-owned airline was broken up as part of deregulation.

Dozens of airlines eventually appeared, many owned by local governments. After years of fierce price wars, Beijing waded back in four years ago by imposing the government-mandated fares.

 

[xoxo]

asked about midatlantic . he said that republic sais that they will honor the midatlantic pilot contract. asked about the f/a and that if they still have recall rights at airways. he said that if hew were a f/a he would not bank on being recalled.

[post="258780"][/post]​

They already recalled 40 f/a to mainlin. 22 of them left MAA. I already talked to a few of them. They will be in LGA on MAY 1st. So, he must not know to much about the f/a's. OR you never spoke to him. <_<

 

[speedbird86]

OR you never spoke to him. <_<

[post="258938"][/post]​

I believe they spoke. I tend to agree with Pitbull. Lakefield dosen't have a clue except for what his bumbling boob hacks like Crellin and Glass tell him.
I find it very revealing that he said the only reason he was at US was because he was doing his friend a favor. Friend supposedly Bronner.