is it me or every time the good DR speaks to the press at i'm sure what HE thinks he is doing his best to convey the urgency of the situation at hand. i submit for your review the bookings to 8 weeks out from today or the date of the article customers will now actively book away from a failing carrier. looking back over the past 24months you find that the revenue drop off occurred in this time range after the good DR has talked to the press. and guess what during this time guess who steps up to the plate? yet another Mgmt person of interest that says and i quote. look our revenue projections are not being met we must reduce costs further, we are unsure why we missed our estimates."........ are you kidding me?
1. I truely believe Time is the greatest enemy
2. I am in no way sugguesting give it all up nor nothing until judge rules.
3. I am sugguesting that while the "power people" i'm sure are well respected for their combined accomplishments in their own fields. they collectively know bumkis about 1. RUNNING an airline much less managing PEOPLE as assets.
as long as i got the space here a few more thoughts (most of which touched upon in this thread but i will spare you the quote/cut/paste job)
1. UAIR to file BK, if this is the plan its the plan period. Specific dates? yeah right, are they going to do it to "hard ball the unions" no i dont think so. Will it hurt the union position most certainly (think decertification)
2. The biggest problem with UAIR is not cost, it is in fact there is NO PLAN, tell me beyond the catch phrases of the day (downsizing, rightsizing, biggie sizing, de hubing, focus cities, rolling hubs ect...) how are you going to 1. increase either the average fare collected or increase ridership. tell me how you are going to RE-Brand this airline from the " high(est) cost carrier in the Northeast to something else.. anything else." what is your concise collective marketing strategy. surely for the employees "INVESTMENT" these are reasonable questions about OUR ROI. since WE not The RSA are the biggest INVESTORS in the company yet the SMALLEST shareholders.
3. Oil is rising but eventually will peak and retreat, will it go back to 20 a bbl? probably not so what is your plan for this? hint hedging only gets you part of the way there.
4. What are you doing about your competitors? NOT the LCCs but remember the ones you clearly defined (and demanded to be the guage) of COMPOSITE competitors? UAL/DAL/AMR/CAL/NWAC ??? take 1% of thier customers and you wont be worried about JBLU and LUV. part of the plan must be how can We appeal to THIER customers and do a better job or offer a better product than they can?
5. PRICE PRICE PRICE take a lesson from the auto industry, if the traveling public ONLY considered PRICE then Price is all you should market, if that were true then why dont we see the most economical (read here CHEAPEST) cars on our roads? and very few of the more expensive kind? Think of the difference in incomes all accross the USA now think of the different cars, why marketing? they percieve a certain value for the dollars they are spending. if there is no difference then yes price wins. but arent all cars just a means of transport? apparently not. If you cant beat them on price beat them on product.
6. hurry up and settle get an 1113 letter and our group is saved, your group will be raked over coals............ the 1113 letter does not guarentee anything. period.
the judge rules. thats it. what i am saying here is that letter is not a get out of jail free card and should not be treated, looked at or hung in the mirror as such.
7. thier are many brilliant people out there in every position, they see every day things that can make this place better, survive, prosper. Empower them. you don't save a million dollars in one shot, you save a buck a shot a million times. Trust them to do the right thing, almost all the time they will.
8. the industry consolidation. intresting, but because one ex ceo muttered it perhaps 2 sorry dont see it. lets see if i am AMR i want to buy 279 hulls and take what 26000 people on because why? my 100 hulls parked and my 15,000 people are unable to do the job? or because its a great investment, lets see i'm fighting for my life here and you want me to take that money away from my company ok got it....or smartly as one former CEO told me it is much wiser to buy U then dismatle it as opposed to spending 5 times as much bleeding each other dry. (read here a purchase doesnt mean a job elsewhere) food for thought big dogs dont have the dough to do it.
9. Gate space/slots are the value, yep agreed, but of course with slots use it or lose it you pay for it because you want to get first choice at it. other than that they would be redistributed. it then becomes a real estate managment lesson not running an airline lesson.
10. UAIR will fail and the rest of the industry will carry their passengers and improve thier collective earnings such that they can survive. Maybe, but ciites are foolling themselves (as PIT and surrounding areas about to find out) no SWA is not secretly hiding 10 airplanes to bring in the next day basically your town is out service, yes you mind find "cheaper fares" but you will connect everywhere and smaller towns simply will have to drive to bigger cities that support the need for air service.
11. i submit that the worst of airline is CAL. they are not banging the BK drums because it is not an option for them. they will ride it down to dollar 0. they must turn cash flow positive or game over.
12. DAL will continue its present course, if the pilot group says no its court time. right now with the pilots offer DAL does not need the new and improved increased amount (upped due to oil spike) they will "be on the courthouse steps" only to pull back for the remainder of this year
13. AMR becomes the study case they WERE moving in the right direction, OIL sidelined that UAL/DAL pensions will cause something to happen with pensions at AMR if this is done quickly outside of court they will be first to back in black for full year.
14. NWAC extremely interesting case in 1992 the state of MN indicated it would support the airline if the employees capitulated. guess what short story they both agreed and NWAC went from 3000 pilots to 6000 pilots (read here company wide size increase too) hurt by SARS and other items outside US a far east rebound helps them the most, a Decrease in transpacific flights by UAL (further cuts in bk) also helps them they dont need much to go cash flow positive.
bottom line here is this . few companies are focused on next 90-180days others are focused on 5years from now. trick is to make the 180 days and by default you might find yourself leapfrogging others.
i wish all the best during these uprecedented trying times.