Bob Says

First, Bob. I am not AGAINST anything. I am very pro-reality, and pro-success, which very much can mean pro-labor AND pro-business but it usually does not. Problem is that in very few cases in the airline industry, labor and mgmt have figured out how to get on the same page.
The best examples of success in the airline industry - DL historically and again post BK, WN since its inception, and CO post BK until it was acquired by UA - all succeeded because mgmt had a solid business plan and labor was willing to do what was necessary for the company to succeed - and labor shared in that success.
Most of the traditional labor-mgmt relationships in the airline industry have been contentious and adversarial. It is no surprise that it is a lose-lose environment for everyone.

AA increased the efficiency across its operation, including the use of its fleet - which is precisely why you don't see half of the revenue despite the fleet size being cut in half - or whatever percentage you want to use.
AA, like most other carriers, outsourced a significant amount of its flying to regional carriers. Again, like it or not, but DL is the only network carrier in the US that is changing that paradigm. No surprise that DL has no employees on furlough and is hiring - although their regional carriers have taken it in the shorts.

Yes, there are some airlines in the industry - the big one based in ATL for one - who said they are tired of everyone else making money except airlines. That is part of why they said they will not order billions of dollars in new aircraft but will figure out how to make decade old airplanes work. You are indeed right that the industry mindset has been that government and everyone else makes money but airlines seem rarely to be able to..... it takes changing that mindset for employees to benefit - and in all honestly, AA has not shown they understand that principle.

Yes, Bob, part of the reason why AA's out of court restructuring was unsuccessful was because AA was paying lease rates for aircraft that were far above market value. I said years ago that AA didn't get out of BK what other carriers did.... and now that AA is getting those lease rates down, they are getting rid of the aircraft such as the M80s where they reduced the lease rates - or that is their stated plan w/ all of the aircraft they are buying. Again, their competitor 800 miles east on I-20 decided that they would keep the M80s that they won big lease payment cuts in BK.

You are also correct that AA kept maintenance and it cost them relative to other carriers - but my point has always been that AA didn't need to dump near as many of its mechanics and as much as of its maintenance infrastructure if it could figure out how to insource maintenance work. But AA mgmt has decided they would rather outsource and have the smallest workforce possible and forego the possibility of insourcing.

DO you not see how the traditional labor -mgmt relationship esp. at AA has created so much pain for employees?
 
Methinks...RLC (knowing full well that a seniority intergration can NEVER be achieved) is saying.."Dont Do It" .

And if thats true, perhaps what he's Not Saying...is exit BK...with all the new A/C,.....and THEN....go airline shopping !
 
Methinks...RLC (knowing full well that a seniority intergration can NEVER be achieved) is saying.."Dont Do It" .

And if thats true, perhaps what he's Not Saying...is exit BK...with all the new A/C,.....and THEN....go airline shopping !

My thoughts exactly.
Maybe JetBlue and or Alaska Airlines keeps coming to mind. Spirit has nothing to offer.
 
Alaska Airlines is not a merger fit for any other airline. Their primary market (Alaska) and its' unique requirements don't make sense to any knowledgeable airline person. Only the goofy consultants and bankers would suggest a merger here.
 
AS is not an airline of Alaska predominantly. Its HDQ is in SEA and the majority of its revenue comes from the lower 48.

AS is not an attractive merger candidate for any US airline because of its high market capitalization. ALK is worth over $3B; in contrast Delta - the most expensive US airline by market cap - is worth just under $10B even though DAL is over 8X larger. Being consistently profitable drives high market caps.

If AA did emerge as a standalone and had a market cap of $6-7B as analysts have expected (perhaps a bit more), AMR would half to give up a value equal to almost 40% of the company in order to merge w/ ALK... and ALK doesn't do anything to solve AA's other strategic needs. We don't know but it is also possible that DL has obtained penalties from AS in the event ALK is sold to another carrier and is unable to feed DL's int'l operation at SEA; DL wants AS for the same reasons AA does and AS has said they only want to codeshare to DL as well.

If AA is going to merge w/ anyone, B6 makes far more sense strategically and JBLU is worth a whole lot less than ALK although B6 still doesn't solve all of AA's strategic needs.
 
Alaska Airlines is not a merger fit for any other airline. Their primary market (Alaska) and its' unique requirements don't make sense to any knowledgeable airline person. Only the goofy consultants and bankers would suggest a merger here.

The same goofy consultants and bankers that suggest a dysfunctional USAir?
 
AS is not an airline of Alaska predominantly. Its HDQ is in SEA and the majority of its revenue comes from the lower 48.

AS is not an attractive merger candidate for any US airline because of its high market capitalization. ALK is worth over $3B; in contrast Delta - the most expensive US airline by market cap - is worth just under $10B even though DAL is over 8X larger. Being consistently profitable drives high market caps.

If AA did emerge as a standalone and had a market cap of $6-7B as analysts have expected (perhaps a bit more), AMR would half to give up a value equal to almost 40% of the company in order to merge w/ ALK... and ALK doesn't do anything to solve AA's other strategic needs. We don't know but it is also possible that DL has obtained penalties from AS in the event ALK is sold to another carrier and is unable to feed DL's int'l operation at SEA; DL wants AS for the same reasons AA does and AS has said they only want to codeshare to DL as well.

If AA is going to merge w/ anyone, B6 makes far more sense strategically and JBLU is worth a whole lot less than ALK although B6 still doesn't solve all of AA's strategic needs.

And a dysfunctional USAir does?
 
First, Bob. I am not AGAINST anything. I am very pro-reality, and pro-success, which very much can mean pro-labor AND pro-business but it usually does not. Problem is that in very few cases in the airline industry, labor and mgmt have figured out how to get on the same page.
The best examples of success in the airline industry - DL historically and again post BK, WN since its inception, and CO post BK until it was acquired by UA - all succeeded because mgmt had a solid business plan and labor was willing to do what was necessary for the company to succeed - and labor shared in that success.
Most of the traditional labor-mgmt relationships in the airline industry have been contentious and adversarial. It is no surprise that it is a lose-lose environment for everyone.

AA increased the efficiency across its operation, including the use of its fleet - which is precisely why you don't see half of the revenue despite the fleet size being cut in half - or whatever percentage you want to use.
AA, like most other carriers, outsourced a significant amount of its flying to regional carriers. Again, like it or not, but DL is the only network carrier in the US that is changing that paradigm. No surprise that DL has no employees on furlough and is hiring - although their regional carriers have taken it in the shorts.

Yes, there are some airlines in the industry - the big one based in ATL for one - who said they are tired of everyone else making money except airlines. That is part of why they said they will not order billions of dollars in new aircraft but will figure out how to make decade old airplanes work. You are indeed right that the industry mindset has been that government and everyone else makes money but airlines seem rarely to be able to..... it takes changing that mindset for employees to benefit - and in all honestly, AA has not shown they understand that principle.

Yes, Bob, part of the reason why AA's out of court restructuring was unsuccessful was because AA was paying lease rates for aircraft that were far above market value. I said years ago that AA didn't get out of BK what other carriers did.... and now that AA is getting those lease rates down, they are getting rid of the aircraft such as the M80s where they reduced the lease rates - or that is their stated plan w/ all of the aircraft they are buying. Again, their competitor 800 miles east on I-20 decided that they would keep the M80s that they won big lease payment cuts in BK.

You are also correct that AA kept maintenance and it cost them relative to other carriers - but my point has always been that AA didn't need to dump near as many of its mechanics and as much as of its maintenance infrastructure if it could figure out how to insource maintenance work. But AA mgmt has decided they would rather outsource and have the smallest workforce possible and forego the possibility of insourcing.

DO you not see how the traditional labor -mgmt relationship esp. at AA has created so much pain for employees?

Are you claiming that Delta employees didnt suffer? Delta is one of the few carriers (Eagle being the other one) where AA has been able to get mechanics.

Yes we know you love Delta and their non-union structure but as they show profits watch the drives for Unions start and watch Delta raise pay to try and stop them.

AA has been hiring off the street for several years now. In NY they had around 300 on the recall list, IIRC less than 20 came back. Delta more than likely experienced the same thing.

You claim that the relationship between the Unions and AA have been adversarial, OK lets take the TWU, cite examples where the Union has been adversarial and placed AA in an uncompetative position.

AA is banking on the new airplanes not breaking because they know that the lowest paid mechanics in the industry are not going to jump through hoops to get them fixed. They will be wrong. Again.
 
85%, Bob, 85%. Not half. 85%.

Less than half of $15billion WT. You said fuel at up 85% of the increased revenues, which was $7billion , what about the fact that a third of the operation was gone, and Revenue increased, a double bonus , one third of the costs was around $8 billion. You seem to keep forgetting that AA shed 300 airplanes and 40,000 employees and cut the pay of those who remained by 25%.
 
Pilots took a 20% cut, TWU took 17-19%, managers at my level took 17%, agents saw around 7%. Benefits were unchanged, and losing paid time off still doesn't affect your W-2.

So who exactly had their pay cut by 25%?

Better yet, who had an actual W-2 pay cut in this most current restructuring?
 
So, in other words, you're just throwing out 25% because it sounds nicer than 17%.

You make a great politician, Bob. Perhaps you should run for public office.
 
What Bob said is the truth. American pilots have always dictated the terms of their merger seniority. This will be different unless they are able to get an agreement before a merger. What my AA friend thinks is that they really do not fear an arbitrators decision. Their reason is that there will be a wall not a fence between AA and US pilots. No US pilot now on the list will ever make it to the left seat of a 777. That is their expectation and from previous AA mergers not far from what they got.

And, can you imagine for a second that the US pilots would stand for such an arrangement where their seniority would count for naught in staffing all those 777s and 787s we have on order? If they can thumb their noses at a binding arbitration decision that they demanded, why would they agree to a wall between them and the new a/c?
 
Arbitrators place walls and fences in their decisions. Both AA and USAir do not want any part of it. So if what Bob Crandall said is true then the USAir merger deal is NOT going to happen. A right seat pilot with AA has an opportunity to make it to the left seat of a 767 or 777 before he retires, but with a seniority integration deal he may end up flying domestic on a A320 doing four turns a day until he retires. Same goes for a USAir pilot. This info I acquired while having a long interesting conversation with a flight crew at work. So who do you believe? The people pushing this merger who are in denial of the major hurdles to be a successful airline as Bob Crandall suggested? Or the front-line workers who it directly affects?
 
So, in other words, you're just throwing out 25% because it sounds nicer than 17%.

You make a great politician, Bob. Perhaps you should run for public office.


So are you of the opinion that benefits and work rules are not a part of compensation? AA feels otherwise as they add that stuff in to our "total Value statement".
 

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