Dont think the message will have its desired affect.
As of today there are 9775 members, between Title I and Title II (8217 and 1558 respectively) in our contract group.
4329 members in Tulsa. The Line and AFW still outnumber Tulsa, by over 1100 but they are spread out among 6 mechanic dominated Locals and around 7 Fleet service dominated locals. If the ATD had consolidated all of T-I and T-II mechanics in 591 it would have been bigger than 514, but under Dons plan 591 they will remain spread out with Fleet Local representatives outnumbering the Maint local representatives, in other words it makes it worse for Line Mechanics. Clearly their plan is to divide and conquer. Putting all the T-II line mechanics in 591 would result in an equal number of representatives from both Title groups, 3 each, but Don could not have that.
There are more AMTs on the line now than there is in Tulsa, 3639 on the Line, all A&Ps and just 3234 AMTs in Tulsa. Line A&P Mechanics makeup 37% of the title group and Don and the ATD have done their best to alienate every one of them.. Most if not all the TWU projected additional loss of around 2000 more jobs will be from OH (that’s assuming the TAESL partnership continues, if not the losses will be even greater as that allows the company to increase the outsourcing percentage “accordingly”.). Despite the comments from the three guys they got to speak in favor of the TWU apparently 50% of Tulsa has signed cards for the IBT(thats what the IBT claimed months ago).
The fleet size is projected to grow, so line maint headcount should remain stable, attrition will drive hiring, and the company is not having an easy time recruiting suitable candidates. Currently the company really can’t afford to let many from Line Maint go, in NY they are still holding over 20 guys from the EO and SIS, and the company is hiring off thee street in several cities. (So by 2017 Tulsa, if it’s still open will likely number around 2700 to 2300, The AA headcount will likely go down by the 4000 they said it would if we did not agree to concessions even though we did agree to them, so much for saving jobs)
AFW saw half their base closed and work moved to Tulsa and Asia, the TWU cannot count on many votes from what remains of AFW.
By having the IBT in the race the TWU could stay in place with just 34% of the vote but more than likely they will not get that, and they know it. In a three way race the IBT will draw some votes from the TWU in Tulsa and Title II but more votes from the AMFA on the line. To me it seems that despite the very public efforts the TWU has resigned itself to losing the mechanics. The so called fight against the IBT is an effort to try and ensure that the IBT wins over AMFA. The IBT drive started three months after the AMFA drive, if AMFA files in May and the IBT still does not have the cards it would be an AMFA vs TWU vote. So by staging a fight in Tulsa they are hoping to win more support for the IBT on the Line where the members prefer AMFA and believe that the TWU and IBT are actually working together to keep AMFA out. If this was truly about saving the TWU then why would the TWU focus its efforts on Tulsa? The IBT claimed to have gotten 50% months ago from Tulsa, AMFA never got that, so its on the line that the IBT is lagging AMFA. If the TWU were really trying to win why would they treat the line the way they are? Instead they continue to make moves that push the line away from the TWU, to the point that they would vote for any union other than the TWU, and it apparent that Don and the ATD want that Union to be the IBT, not AMFA.
591 sealed the TWU’s fate on the line and also alienated many T-II guys on the line. If the TWU had decided one Local for the entire class and craft based in DFW and sent Bobby Gless and Don Videtich back to their boxes they may have had a shot but if they can’t inflate the numbers like in 2004 (22000???) and it sounds like they wont be able to, and a vote comes, in my opinion they will likely lose by wide margins. It’s a shame that Little, Gless and Videtich put so much effort into giving the company everything they want and screwing over the mechanics they claim they represent. Clearly they hate us, we are the only group that is so far away from our peers in the industry, other groups are actually close to UAL and DAL, we are even below USAIR, dead last by a wide margin. The only way the TWU was able to deliver the company what the company wanted was with the EO and SIS. That probably got them the 700 or so Yes votes they needed, but it removed 1700 people from the list that has kept the TWU in place, with the 2003 RIFs falling off the list in May that shrinks the list even more, leaving the people who voted NO on the contract clearly in the majority and the actions of TeAAm Videtich have only driven them further away from the TWU.
My prediction, if the IBT actually did get 50% from Tulsa and it gets to a vote, would be TWU getting 20%, IBT 37% and AMFA getting 38%, with 15% voting “No Union” or not voting at all. I believe that once the ballots are sent out the company will announce they are exiting BK and the TWU will claim that if members leave they are not entitled to their Equity stake which will be at least five figures. That of course would be challenged in court because the equity stake was given in exchange for the sacrifices made by the workers and not the Union which was already made whole. (If AA exits BK and is valued at $10 billion we would get around $24k each if divided among all groups equally, if they are valued at $5 Billion we would get $12k –UAL, which didn’t have $5 billion in cash and operated under DIP got around $40k. Keep in mind that even though we went into BK at the bottom of the industry we as a group are giving $2.2 billion for 4.8% of the company, so if the company is valued at $10 Billion we would be paying $2.2 billion for $480 million of equity. In order for us to get an equity stake worth closely to what we are giving, and thats from the bottom, the company would have to be valued at over $40 billion) The IBT will claim they have more money to fight this in court than the AMFA has but even then I think that if it gets to a vote AMFA would win because if the members decide to leave the TWU why would they chose the Union that Jim Little wants them to go to? Even Bobby Gless said in 2004 that if it got to a vote that the TWU would lose and we are much worse off now than we were then.
