I agree with those who think the number is "a lot". The senior folks are really going to screw the junior folks if they get their way on this.
I think it's a reasonable assumption that the layoffs would have been significantly larger in number if you hadn't agreed to those concessions. Not to mention that the court would have slashed your salary by more than you conceded.
Thats your assumption. I disagree. In the past we've seen layoffs with or without concessions and with wages being paid to workers being a smaller and smaller part of overall CASMs industry wide its doubtful that wages are a meaningful component in determining capacity. Capacity determines the need for headcount, not wages. SWA, JETBlue, AirTRan and Continental all pay more than AA, DL, UA or USAir but its the last four that have cut most of the capacity.
As far as what the court would have done thats another assumption. Prior to AAs massive pay cuts, which came out to an immediate 25% cut, the courts had only mandated a 14% cut. After AA got their cuts the BK carriers went back for more. So if AA had gone BK the best they probably would have seen was 14% like the others, the others would have lacked an arguement for a second round of cuts. Our "outside of BK" Bankruptcy concessions hurt every worker in the industry.