I don't want to see a merge, I want organic growth.
The only 'Big Red' I want to see is in the chewing gum rack at the news stand.
Truth be told, me too. Problem with "organic growth" is that it's gonna be a long, slow process to grow in Japan and China unless you acquire another airline having a presence there. More China frequencies become available in 2010, 2011 and 2012, but by then (when lots of new frequencies will be available), the serious profits may have already been made. Sorta like the land rush to Heathrow right now. CO has spent a reported $200 million buying LHR slots thinking it will print money once it lands there. Could be that the presses have run dry now that anyone can fly USA-LHR. Profits are made flying to those restricted destinations when almost nobody else is allowed to.
On the domestic front, there ain't gonna be any more "organic growth" for the legacies. That's what the '80s and '90s featured. About 20 years of unbridled growth. And it ain't gonna happen ever again for AA.
The unmet demand is for cheaper domestic seats, and the LCCs are probably gonna be the ones to provide that product. My crystal ball sees nothing but continued shrinkage in the domestic market as WN and B6 and FL and F9 continue to take delivery of new airplanes - dozens of them each year.
With jetA flirting with $3/gal this year, the pool of passengers able to afford higher-priced seats isn't growing, either. It's shrinking, and DL/NW and UA/CO appear poised to firm up their grip on those willing to pay more. And once they combine, those two will dominate the USA-China and USA-Japan markets, and AA can't simply decide to fly more flights to either. Authorities (and slots, to NRT) are scarce commodities.
Alaska? Great state. Great airline. But except for a couple of West-coast to DCA (or is it LGA?) slot exemption routes, they fly nothing that AA couldn't fly on its own. No Japan. No China. No South America. Some 737s? Boeing has agreed to deliver 23 of those to AA next year. AA can get as many of them as it desires/can integrate into its fleet. All AA has to do is write the check, and AA's price from Boeing for those 737s appears competitive with WN's price.
Even better, Alaska and AA already cooperate. I fly AS up and down the west coast already. AA doesn't have to spend money buying AS. They're already pretty tight.
Unfortunately, AS may be the only real target out there once the other four get hitched. Too bad.