Allowing Bk Carriers To Destroy The Industry

[uafa21]

It appears as though DL may be on the verge of bk. What will that do to the market? Then you'll have 3 majors in bk and all three cutting fares. I guess the slogan will be "Ride my plane it's freeer than their's and also get a free meal".

I will agree that bk is used completely wrong. It should be used in a manner to fix the problems associated with the operation to make the operation fuctional again. That doesn't seem to be the case with airline bk's.

This entire thing is getting out of hand and the sad thing is the government will probably come through with some kind of short term bailout when at least 4 companies are in bk. Then all the airlines will squander through the money all over again. I'm not seeing any fix short term here.

 

[Busdrvr]

"My mind keeps going back to the MD-80 prototype that lost it's tail in a "hard landing".

Hey now, as you know, I am a Douglas fan. So tell me, what was the rate of descent on that test?

[post="254290"][/post]​

I'm willing to bet that I've sat though higher......

 

[Busdrvr]

QUOTE(Bigsky @ Mar 10 2005, 10:58 AM)

OOOPS I didn't write the above. Was using a computer in a hotel business center and forgot to logoff. My bust. Sorry Bus. Cheers bigsky

[post="254347"][/post]​

No worries, apparently you share that hotel with the F/A's (Right NxN?). Didn't sound like you, but I'm also well aware that as paychecks get slashed, and lives crumble, people get a little testy, and they typically (rightly or wrongly) look for someone to blame for that plight. Best of luck to us ALL.

This entire thing is getting out of hand and the sad thing is the government will probably come through with some kind of short term bailout when at least 4 companies are in bk. Then all the airlines will squander through the money all over again. I'm not seeing any fix short term here.

I'm beginning to think more and more that this industry will collapse and consolidate, and who is or isn't currently BK is irrelevent. the moneyu will be behind the clean balance sheets, and Chapt 11 will be a prerec for merger (ala TWA). A DAL/UAL move (U is giving up too much market and morphing too much for the business plan), as well as a AMR NWA deal could be the route with CAL/U scrambling. Once it gets to three bigs, the industry will stabilze, and the LCC's won't be liking "stability".

 

[Dizel8]

Well, some of my "landings" may have felt like it, but really, on that video, it actualy looks like they lower the nose to get a higher rate.

 

[Dizel8]

"Once it gets to three bigs, the industry will stabilze, and the LCC's won't be liking "stability".

Heck, the big three will not like THE big one!

"A DAL/UAL". You mean Broke and Broker? ( Sorry, couldn't help it)

The seniority integration between NWA and AMR would be a show I pay to watch, maybe it could be a reality TV show: Survivor APA vs ALPA!

 

[North by Northwest]

It all boils down to...the primary target in the free for all, were and are the Unions of the airline industry. You will not see the U.S gov. do anything until the LAST major carrier is in BK and the dust settles from the ensuing battles between Labor and Mangament. It ain't gonna be pretty. P.S. So much for the Delta " Simply Stupid" Fares. Sounds like they are really working over there...aginst generating revenue!

 

[jimntx]

The seniority integration between NWA and AMR would be a show I pay to watch, maybe it could be a reality TV show: Survivor APA vs ALPA!

[post="254474"][/post]​

Oh, even better than a Survivor-type show. ALPA/APFA vs. APA/AFA in a tag team mud wrestling bout. No holds barred, no time limit. Last 40 year flight attendant and pilot standing! Can't you just see 'em all in string bikinis???

 

[North by Northwest]

Detroit/ Minniapolis FAs in one corner and Dallas/ Miami in the other....WHEW Doggie! I smell blood....

 

[aafsc]

Detroit/ Minniapolis FAs in one corner and Dallas/ Miami in the other....WHEW Doggie! I smell blood....

[post="254480"][/post]​

If this AA/NW scenario were to occur, in all probability it would be a dovetail. Why?
1. An AA/NW marriage would be a marriage of equals. AA has Latin America, the Carribean, Europe, MIA, DFW, ORD, SJU, and large operations in JFK, LAX, SJC, and STL. NW has the Pacific with hubs in NRT, MSP, DTW, and MEM. They also have a good freighter operation in the Pacific.
2. I highly doubt that the NW unions would relinquish their seniority protective provisions. And neither would the AA unions.
3. Northwest is a viable entity. It still has about $2 billion in cash. so it is not going to collapse anytime soon.
4. It would be a true merger (as apposed to purchasing assets for cash and leaving behind a corporate shell). One company would purchase the other in it's entirety as is. This can be done with cash for stock or stock for stock or a combination. Or it can be done as a pooling of interests.

Airline mergers are always problematic and difficult, but in a capitalist society they are unavoidable. The trick is to merge with a company that makes the gain far outweigh the pain. If another transaction happens, I fully expect my union to do everything to protect my interests. Of course, the employees of the other company will expect the same from their unions. It appears that the industry will go through changes here real soon. In my opinion, this year because the industry simply can not continue with very high fuel and dirt cheap tickets. Consolidation will happen either through outright failures or mergers. The probability of either is 50%, in my opinion. And right now who will end up with whom is still just a guessing game.

 

[North by Northwest]

"guessing game" At this rate it'll be the "crying game".

 

[UAL_TECH]

"guessing game" At this rate it'll be the "crying game".

[post="254581"][/post]​

It's not a 'guessing game' nor a 'crying game'!
It 'IS' a race to the bottom!!!

We have seen concessionary employee contracts throughout the industry to 'save the company'!!! (Including the recent NWA ALPO concessions!!!)

What has been the outcome of these concessions?

Cheaper fares, fare wars, and yet more concessions by airline employees.
This is Bull$hitt!!!

Some are intelligent enough to understand that employee concessions will not save their company when their company (and industry) is functionally broken.

Shortly we (AMFA) at the 'Lazy U' will be facing 'Da Judge' once again and I have little doubt that when they ask for capitulation for our pensions that they will once again be shown our backsides!!! :mf_boff:

JMHO,
B) UT

 

[Bigsky]

It's all about pricing. If you're loosing your a$$ selling lemonade at 5 cents a cup you don't lower the price to 4 cents so that you can loose even more. For some reason the airline management teams have yet to figure out kindergarten level economics. Their answer has been to buy cheaper cups and paint them a different color. Ted and Song are prime examples. Then Delta comes out with Simply Stupid fares. NWA isn't immune from the follies either as in recent months when everyone tried to jack up fares to stop the bleeding, NWA stayed firm and did not not match several attempts to increase fares brought on by CAL and others. Finally, although too little too late, they raised fares 20 bucks.

The legacy management teams continully shift the blame to those evil LCCs. Southwest is the main culprit. The greyhound express who only flies to 50 cities and can't even take you to Mexico or Canada. Southwest isn't the problem. Frankly, I am thankful for their existance. There are only so many Jethro's and Zeek's that I could handle on my plane at once and Southwest seems to accomodate most of them keeping the Clampits and the 'Git 'er Done fan club' well clear of our redtails.

In other words, the legacies like UA and NWA still have pricing power as they offer a service that the LCC's do not. Try flying Jetblew to from Missoula to Mumbai.

Add another 50 to 100 bucks on to the fare prices to these places where the LCCs are no where to be seen and let's get back to making money. BTW, I think you'll all find the LCCs only compete on fraction of the legacy routes so there's plenty of pricing power left.

cheers

bigsky

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

If this AA/NW scenario were to occur, in all probability it would be a dovetail. Why?
1. An AA/NW marriage would be a marriage of equals. AA has Latin America, the Carribean, Europe, MIA, DFW, ORD, SJU, and large operations in JFK, LAX, SJC, and STL. NW has the Pacific with hubs in NRT, MSP, DTW, and MEM. They also have a good freighter operation in the Pacific.
2. I highly doubt that the NW unions would relinquish their seniority protective provisions. And neither would the AA unions.
3. Northwest is a viable entity. It still has about $2 billion in cash. so it is not going to collapse anytime soon.
4. It would be a true merger (as apposed to purchasing assets for cash and leaving behind a corporate shell). One company would purchase the other in it's entirety as is. This can be done with cash for stock or stock for stock or a combination. Or it can be done as a pooling of interests.

Airline mergers are always problematic and difficult, but in a capitalist society they are unavoidable. The trick is to merge with a company that makes the gain far outweigh the pain. If another transaction happens, I fully expect my union to do everything to protect my interests. Of course, the employees of the other company will expect the same from their unions. It appears that the industry will go through changes here real soon. In my opinion, this year because the industry simply can not continue with very high fuel and dirt cheap tickets. Consolidation will happen either through outright failures or mergers. The probability of either is 50%, in my opinion. And right now who will end up with whom is still just a guessing game.

[post="254519"][/post]​

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
aafsc,
Brother, you "nailed it" right on the head.

Not only is AA, and NW the 2 strongest legacy's out there, they are 2 of the "shrewdest" carriers(characters) in the USA aviation history.

Anyone who doubts the ability of these 2, to recognize that they can obtain more "$$Gain, than $$Pain, does'nt know ####, about this industry.

The detractors can talk about the unorthodox hubs and fleet "uncommonality" UNTIL THE COWS COME HOME, but that does'nt mean that these 2 competiters, cannot become allies, if it's done just the right way.

I'm going on record, "RIGHT NOW, and "RIGHT HERE" on this thread, and saying that:

"AA, NW and WN, WILL NEVER SEE THE INSIDE OF A BK COURT" !!!!!!!!!!!!!

"I DID"NT STUTTER BOYS AND GIRLS",
NOW,,
"PROVE ME WRONG" !!!!!!!!!! I'll be here, or on AA waiting for anyones proof !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NH/BB's

 

[mweiss]

Once it gets to three bigs, the industry will stabilze, and the LCC's won't be liking "stability".

[post="254471"][/post]​

Not this time. There's too much airport capacity for that strategy to support three majors under the strategy of 15 years ago.

 

[mweiss]

What has been the outcome of these concessions?
Cheaper fares, fare wars, and yet more concessions by airline employees.

[post="254589"][/post]​

You're drawing a causal relationship where there's only a correlative one.