Airlines/Liquididity.Strongest..to..Weakest

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LGA Fleet Service said:
You know Bears, if we actually DO file that is going to be one honkin' big Crow sandwich you're going to be eating...
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As usual LGA,.........you are correct.

But perhaps like you, with AA having the pension fund nearly fully funded, it "goes against the grain' of seeing AA go BK/11, as a FIRST resort.

Which is why I put a LOT of Faith in FWAAA's logic of "outlasting" the competition of re-entering BK again...(AND some may be looking at the "unlucky - 7", like in BK/7).

WN, obviously doesn't have the "B" word in their vocabulary.
Having said that,.........AA is one ol' "Wiley Coyote", and has been for a long-long time.

Our dear friend eolesen virtually guaranteed we'd have "gone in" at $100 Oil, something FWAAA is quick to remind him of. :shock:

"E" still has a lot of Inside Info/contacts, and still carry's a decent "batting average."

But when it comes to PURE logic, FWAAA, (who we all know is NOT an employee), outshines "E" in THAT catagory.

As always,..........Time will TELL !

peace bro'
 
NewHampshire Black Bears said:
FWAAA..stated....(in an earlier post),...........Right now is all about ...outrunning the Other airlines,.....NOT the...."BEAR" !!,

And I couldn't Agree More.

Between Arpey's most recent comments(to Merrill Lynch),......coupled with.......Over "5"..$$..Billion.."Smackeroo's" instantly available,.....(besides WN)... AMERICAN Will be the LAST one up the BK courthouse steps,...... :up: if in fact they EVER do,...(a journey known ALL to WELL, to carriers like DELTA...ua, and us...)


To AMERICAN's ...MOST ardent Detractors(as it pertains to A BK filing)......Remember to..."HOLD your BREATH",...until AA climbs the BK courthouse steps !!!

(While Holding your breath,.....Beware of turning ..BLUE,.....or becoming Dillusional, in the process) :wacko:
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This is excellent news, now that AMR is doing so great, they should have no problem giving employees a few bucks back right? Right? hmmmm... I would be mad as a hornet, if the company does in fact turn a profit and then refuses to give me some.... But hey who am I???
 
FrugalFlyerv2.0 said:
Is there any chance of DOT not approving CO-UA codesharing? I'd guess pretty low. This is definitely great news for * alliance as now they have North America pretty much covered, including NY.
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My question would be... Would the DOJ and DOT allow UA to keep its antitrust immunity with US considering this deal with CO? UA/CO/US would be significantly larger than CO/NW/DL.
 
People seem to forget that a lot of AMR's restructuring was with creditors as well. Yes, you took pay cuts...so did creditors. Do you think a creditor was going to fund you not taking a cut? They're a business with employees too. How do you think their employees would feel if their CEO came and said we have to cut your pay and some of your jobs because AA can't pay what they have been. To be a good employer though, AA is going to continue paying its employees the same wages. Just how do you think that would fly? The reality is, creditors say, ok we'll take a cut to continue some revenue stream as opposed to none. In exchange however, you have to change some. One thing I see as a creditor is that on average, you pay your workers more than your competitors. If you're that challenged, there's an area you're going to have to change otherwise I see no benefit to cutting you a deal for me, my employees and shareholders. AMR did it by sitting at the table instead of the courtroom. I think it makes them better and smarter than the competition. Many of you disagree. Oh well.

The biggest hope AA has right now is to hope that creditors aren't willing to fund airlines any longer. Demand around the world is pretty good overall. With that said, if UA goes into CH 11 again, do creditors feel they can place their aircraft with other airlines at the same or better rates? If so, I think it will be hard for UA to recapitalize the business and thus exit. If they do exit, it will likely be much smaller as I'm guessing they may have to shed some core assets which then begs the question of whether they get rid of fat or muscle and bone. If the latter, then you'll see them likely die the same death dealt to some of the other great names in the industry...PanAm after selling Pacific and LHR rights, TWA after selling LHR rights, Eastern after selling Latin American rights. Nobody wants to buy your money losers but by selling your money makers you're really not doing anything but delaying the inevitable.
 
flyhigh said:
If so, I think it will be hard for UA to recapitalize the business and thus exit. If they do exit, it will likely be much smaller as I'm guessing they may have to shed some core assets which then begs the question of whether they get rid of fat or muscle and bone. If the latter, then you'll see them likely die the same death dealt to some of the other great names in the industry...PanAm after selling Pacific and LHR rights, TWA after selling LHR rights, Eastern after selling Latin American rights. Nobody wants to buy your money losers but by selling your money makers you're really not doing anything but delaying the inevitable.
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"All of this has happened before, and all of this will happen again."

In 30 years will JetBlue be selling its pacific routes to stave off liquidation?
 
flyhigh said:
People seem to forget that a lot of AMR's restructuring was with creditors as well. Yes, you took pay cuts...so did creditors. Do you think a creditor was going to fund you not taking a cut? They're a business with employees too. How do you think their employees would feel if their CEO came and said we have to cut your pay and some of your jobs because AA can't pay what they have been. To be a good employer though, AA is going to continue paying its employees the same wages. Just how do you think that would fly?
Click to expand...
Hmm, it didnt seem to bother the creditors that the top execs didnt take much of a hit.


The reality is, creditors say, ok we'll take a cut to continue some revenue stream as opposed to none.
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Yep, better to settle for $900 dollars for a toilet seat than hold out for $1000.
 
eolesen said:
To answer the original poster, liquidity is a sticky wicket. You can look at the financials to figure out available cash and short-term securities, but they don't typically disclose other relevant things like encumbered/unencumbered aircraft & assets.


I don't see UAL being in a Ch.7 -- they still have a valuable franchise that someone will try to acquire. Likewise for AS, HA, and to a lesser degree, B6.

US? Forget it. They'll rot on the courthouse steps. Likewise for YX, F9, FL, and NK. They're disposable capacity and not exactly unique networks.


If UAL tries to sell MP for billions, they seriously risk having someone's ass hauled into court for perjury, because they claimed a far lower value when they were dumping their pensions on PBGC. And it's not out of the question that the PBGC would try to attach the proceeds of a sale to UAL's claim...

UAL did wind up with about 100 unencumbered aircraft following their emergence from bankruptcy, but as mentioned, if they're the 2nd gen 733's and 735's, they're not exactly marketable. It just means they're free and clear. Nothing more than that. If they still have a few 777's which are unencumbered, they might be able to get into a sale/leaseback to generate cash, or they might be able to sell the shell. But as you said, burning the furniture has consequences.
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Don't bet against US they have 9 lives....I have rarely seen a flight below 85 % capacity in months...
 
TWAnr said:
:)
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Good luck to the TWA folks ..AA really screwed them...I worked for EA in MCI....and knew alot...I got the weennie from EA but landed with US...all's good ....the airlines just are'nt like the good'ole days....I wish ALL career airline folks the best....
 
flyhigh said:
People seem to forget that a lot of AMR's restructuring was with creditors as well. Yes, you took pay cuts...so did creditors. Do you think a creditor was going to fund you not taking a cut? They're a business with employees too. How do you think their employees would feel if their CEO came and said we have to cut your pay and some of your jobs because AA can't pay what they have been. To be a good employer though, AA is going to continue paying its employees the same wages. Just how do you think that would fly? The reality is, creditors say, ok we'll take a cut to continue some revenue stream as opposed to none. In exchange however, you have to change some. One thing I see as a creditor is that on average, you pay your workers more than your competitors. If you're that challenged, there's an area you're going to have to change otherwise I see no benefit to cutting you a deal for me, my employees and shareholders. AMR did it by sitting at the table instead of the courtroom. I think it makes them better and smarter than the competition. Many of you disagree. Oh well.

The biggest hope AA has right now is to hope that creditors aren't willing to fund airlines any longer. Demand around the world is pretty good overall. With that said, if UA goes into CH 11 again, do creditors feel they can place their aircraft with other airlines at the same or better rates? If so, I think it will be hard for UA to recapitalize the business and thus exit. If they do exit, it will likely be much smaller as I'm guessing they may have to shed some core assets which then begs the question of whether they get rid of fat or muscle and bone. If the latter, then you'll see them likely die the same death dealt to some of the other great names in the industry...PanAm after selling Pacific and LHR rights, TWA after selling LHR rights, Eastern after selling Latin American rights. Nobody wants to buy your money losers but by selling your money makers you're really not doing anything but delaying the inevitable.
Click to expand...

Very good post. I wish more AMT peeps would see it your way, but all that I hear on this board is how the compan(for which they are employed) owes them more than what the competitors give there employees. Just remember bashers of this company. One day something might come to your doorstep, and guess what you may have toget a job that pays you fifteen dollars an hour to fix a plane, and you will take it to feed your family. YOU ARE NOT ENTITLED TO ANYTHING IN THIS JOB.

And do not give me the attitude that we gave this or we gave that in 2003. You have a job that makes money to pay the mortgage and feed the family. Be happy because other people do not have that luxury, oooh wait, you guys are AMT's and can not be replaced. Get a grip and face reality, it is not about you, it is about the success, of the company you work for and that pays you, Oh wait again, no I will stop and let the bashing begin, because I know it will happen. Where are you Ken Mr. AMT of the world, looking for another union or job. :angry:
 
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