AE Pilots say NO.

[eolesen]

Please be concise and to the point.

Now that's funny.... WT concise? Good luck.

 

[WorldTraveler]

So WT, what are the differences in regional feed strategies between DL and AAG going forward--- especially in view of the RAH vote?  Does DL have one locked in whereas AAG is stymied by virtue of timing and circumstance?  Please be concise and to the point.

DL planned years ago for the shrinkage of the regional airline industry, acquired larger mainline aircraft (717s) to facilitate the transition of flying to mainline, dramatically reduced flying at two heavily RJ dependent hubs in order to justify the gauge, and DL has no RJs with less than 50 seats.

AA has to close hubs, order a whole lot more large RJs or add mainline flying to make up for the inefficient RJ capacity it flies, and deal with the fact that it is now last in line looking for replacement carriers to hold onto what it does have.

UA is more exposed that AA in small RJ flying but is in front of AA in obtaining long term commitments to keep what UA has flying or better control the wind down process.

 

[RJcasualty]

DL planned years ago for the shrinkage of the regional airline industry, acquired larger mainline aircraft (717s) to facilitate the transition of flying to mainline, dramatically reduced flying at two heavily RJ dependent hubs in order to justify the gauge, and DL has no RJs with less than 50 seats.

AA has to close hubs, order a whole lot more large RJs or add mainline flying to make up for the inefficient RJ capacity it flies, and deal with the fact that it is now last in line looking for replacement carriers to hold onto what it does have.

UA is more exposed that AA in small RJ flying but is in front of AA in obtaining long term commitments to keep what UA has flying or better control the wind down process.

Then DL serves 3rd tier cities with only 76+ seaters which are outsourced?  Have those places seen a reduction in frequency also?  Granted costs might have been reduced, but has it impacted revenue?  Is the valued business traveller happy to arrange his schedule in order to accommodate DL's quest for more profits?  Since Parker's in a pinch with the feed, do you see him coming back to Envoy with E-jets and a better deal?  Conversely, do you see Parker willing to seriously hobble his feed in order to maintain his intransigence with Envoy pilots?

 

[WorldTraveler]

in most cases, DL's capacity has indeed been neutral while frequencies indeed have been reduced. DL's philosophy is also that having a FC cabin has allowed DL to gain revenue premiums since it extends the value of the Skymiles program to more cities.

Travelers want the best value for their money... time and schedules matter but if two carriers offer similar flight times and costs, you can bet the carrier that has a better onboard product will receive a disproportionate amount of the premium revenue - it is no different that the philosophy AA is using by putting 773s into GRU, LHR, NRT and other markets.

I can't know what Parker will do but if AA's partners are offered the same thing to fly RJs that other carriers are now paying and other carriers already have contracts - many of which at DL and UA do tie the ability to fly large RJs to continued service on the small RJs - then AA is in a pickle .
AA either needs to offer more money - which messes up the economics even more - or prepare to shrink its regional carrier system such as DL started with CVG and MEM and UA is now doing at CLE and in the west.

There simply are not enough pilots to fly current schedules and what is projected to be added by large RJs at AA/US. Large RJs can replace small RJs in some markets but part of the whole idea behind the large RJs at AA was to be able to return AA to some markets such as ORD where UA has been using large RJs and where AA has had to compete with small RJs or leave the market because mainline aircraft are too large and too costly.

As much as people want to resist it, AA will shrink some hubs for a number of reasons. the RJ industry meltdown just provides one of the best excuses to accelerate what was part of the justification for mergers in the industry anyway.

 

[dfw gen]

he's baaack.... and its all delta again.

 

[WorldTraveler]

it's about the regional carrier segment of the industry.

AE's pilots are the ones that have precipitated another challenge for AA mgmt. How AA is positioned relative to the rest of the industry and what other carriers have done to head off the challenge which AA now faces is absolutely relevant.

which hubs do you think AA will have to sacrifice in order to create the mass to justify mainline aircraft to a number of cities that see multiple RJ flights/day from multiple cities on the duplicated AA/US network?

 

[FWAAA]

he's baaack.... and its all delta again.

Sundays just don't last long enough.   

 

[swamt]

dfw gen and FWAAA,  There a reason he is back, just read all the other threads he has invaded, and you will see why...

 

[WorldTraveler]

because it is an important business issue. just because the facts of the discussion don't happen to make some people comfortable doesn't mean I am going to sit on the sidelines and not address them.

 

[RJcasualty]

Sundays just don't last long enough.   

Sure WT has a bias, but it's good to know what the friends of the competition are thinking. The turmoil at the regional level will have ripple effects up the line.

 

[eolesen]

Yes, because the world just wouldn't be wright without everyone knowing WT's view on all the important business issues facing every airline in the country...

 

[700UW]

Maybe we should send him to the Middle East to solve the Israel-Palestinian Conflict, then Syrian Civil War, then onto Crimea.

 

[mstrmoe]

With the vote and promised downsize, why are they opening a CRJ base in Dallas later this year? Loss of EV/consolidation?

 

[FWAAA]

With the vote and promised downsize, why are they opening a CRJ base in Dallas later this year? Loss of EV/consolidation?

I'm just guessing but the Eagle CRJ700s will probably be moving to DFW as ORD becomes saturated with the new Republic-operated E175s.   I recently read a rumour that Mesa would eventually operate all LAX regional flights, likely with CRJ900s.    So DFW is the logical home for many of the 47 CRJ700s.     
 
The EV CRJ200s were a stopgap measure to tide AA over while the 37-seaters were returned to the lessors, and with the small numbers of new applicants and the resulting tight supply of new first officers at the regionals, the EV CRJ200s will disappear quickly.   

 

[WorldTraveler]

sounds good but something has got to give somewhere. The total number of large RJs coming into the system isn't close to being enough to allow AA to grow AND replace the uneconomical flying that will be lost by small RJs, including by RJ contracts that can't be met.

The whole purpose of getting the large RJs was to grow AA's network- now it is hard to imagine how AA will even cover its existing network with the new large RJs, let alone grow.