AE Pilots say NO.

[Kev3188]

Maybe.
 
...Or maybe parent companies (and M/L carriers) will recognize that the wage floor needs to be raised.
 
Never a dull moment in this gig...

 

[WorldTraveler]

the economics of RJ flying don't work with the current wage rates. given the confluence of maintenance expenses, higher fuel prices, and now labor turmoil in the regional carrier industry, the industry will have no choice but to absorb the resulting reduced capacity.

Those carriers that have a plan for dealing with reduced regional feed will be able to adapt while others will be hurt.

If it were only a matter of labor turmoil, then the regional carrier pilots would see higher rates. But they know full well that anyone with any kind of experience is headed to a mainline carrier so why would they stick around in the regional carrier industry and lose out on the career progression they have all been waiting for anyway.

 

[Kev3188]

I'm not saying a large-scale "correction" won't happen, but at the same time it's hard to see that much capacity nation-wide simply going "poof." carriers need feed, even if it's from a place like LNK. The question is how much are they willing to pay out to get it?

 

[WorldTraveler]

it will take time for these adjustments to take place - the mainline carriers can only hire so fast and many don't even have a fleet plan to support rapid growth.

But it is a given that there will be a loss of regional carrier feed and those carriers that have prepared for that eventuality will be able to adapt while others will be most impacted. For the record, I believe UA will be most impacted by the regional carrier fallout just as analysts seem to think they are beginning to make revenue-related improvements post-merger.

cities like LNK will quite simply have less air service and pay more for it if they can't support more efficient types of aircraft.

 

[eolesen]

I see a few alternatives emerging... and they're not mutually exclusive.

1) Some of the majors may have to start flying their own large RJ's (not the worst option if the top end of regional pay starts approaching the entry level on their own book)

2) Serious loss of service to third tier cities over the next 24 months, including the final nails in the coffin on EAS

3) A few of the more fragile regionals imploding under their own weight

4) Rolling back the dial on the ATP requirement for all pilots

 

[RJcasualty]

Per Flight Global:         American CEO: No plans to sell regional affiliate Eagle
American Airlines CEO Doug Parker said the company isn’t looking to spin off affiliate American Eagle even after the regional airline’s pilots voted to reject an amended labor contract that would have allowed Eagle to operate Embraer E-175 aircraft. “We have no plans to do anything with Eagle at this point other than to own it and have it provide services for American,” Parker told ATW this week on the sidelines of the TAM/US Airways oneworld joining event in Sao Paolo.

 

[eolesen]

Notice that he simply said there are no plans to do anything. That can be brutally honest if you think about it..

1) By doing nothing, Envoy will shrink as every aircraft being returned or retired leaves the property

2) By doing nothing, there won't be as much of a need to replace pilots on a 1:1 basis as they leave

It's not as elegant as saying that they'll be wound down, but it sure does look that way.


In reading PlaneBusiness last week, there was a comment made about Piedmont and PSA possibly getting some of the new RJ's. Apparently that's also been the topic of discussion at an industry conference this week.

Since PDT's fleet is largly older turboprops at the end of their economic life, the notion of replacing their Dash-8's with E-Jets may not be too far fetched.

 

[mwa]

It is not practical to build these large RJ programs from scratch. much easier to take them to mainline where they have the training capacity
Besides, my rumor sources say that they have turned down the rfp

 

[swamt]

If I am reading the articles correctly, it sure is nice to see a group stand up for their careers.  AE pilots voted no as well as the Republic pilots voted no.  When the pilots know there will a shortage of pilots in their industry, they vote accordingly.  Whishing all the other groups could do the same, and yes, I am also talking about our groups the mechanics.  Sorry for the interruption, just like seeing pilots standing up to their employer (like the AA pilots did at first offer).  Tired of seeing the caved yes votes just "because the company said so" votes;-  that's all...

 

[Bob Owens]

RAH pilots also say no.

The regional airline industry will either disintegrate in labor turmoil or as fast as their mainline partners can pull the plug on the RJ industry.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/republic-airways-4-year-pilot-labor-contract-rejected-by-ibt-local-357-2014-04-04?reflink=MW_news_stmp

And they wont be able to do that faster than the demand for Pilots will increase. So for the RJ pilots it accelerates their move into the majors. Have you ever seen a 20 year regional pilot? The only 20 year mechanics they have are guys who don't want to move out of secondary cities. At the majors the average tenure is in excess of 20 years. I doubt the pilots will be concerned about threats of liquidation of $20k a year pilot jobs, Home Depot pays better. They know that if they keep the wages low it keeps it economical to fly smaller planes instead of bigger ones, smaller planes with smaller wages, why should they subsidize their own demise? Do I see a lot of turmoil? No, they will pay, or close, in time they will fade away anyway. Sure there will be some, but not along the scale we see today. 

 

[WorldTraveler]

sure, the regional airline industry is in the cross hairs of accelerating mainline retirements due to pilots now reaching the 65 year old threshold, FAR 117, and pilot demand outside of the US that is draining resources from US airlines... on top of the poor economics of much of the US RJ fleet.

But not every airline -regional or mainline - is going to be impacted in the same way by the RJ pilot shortage. Some airlines have been expecting this and preparing contingency plans - if not ensuring that they gain an upper hand in the whole process - while others are being caught flat footed.

Specific to your interests, I am very bullish that the mechanic shortage is about ready to prove beneficial in pay for US airline mechanics and in new hiring. The mechanic shortage is real and it will result in a resurgence of the industry - but not as fast or at the same time as for pilots.

 

[eolesen]

It is not practical to build these large RJ programs from scratch. much easier to take them to mainline where they have the training capacity
Besides, my rumor sources say that they have turned down the rfp

I don't know that PDT or PSA have the latitude to turn down the RFP, should Mesa, Skywest and Republic say no.

 

[Bob Owens]

sure, the regional airline industry is in the cross hairs of accelerating mainline retirements due to pilots now reaching the 65 year old threshold, FAR 117, and pilot demand outside of the US that is draining resources from US airlines... on top of the poor economics of much of the US RJ fleet.

But not every airline -regional or mainline - is going to be impacted in the same way by the RJ pilot shortage. Some airlines have been expecting this and preparing contingency plans - if not ensuring that they gain an upper hand in the whole process - while others are being caught flat footed.

Specific to your interests, I am very bullish that the mechanic shortage is about ready to prove beneficial in pay for US airline mechanics and in new hiring. The mechanic shortage is real and it will result in a resurgence of the industry - but not as fast or at the same time as for pilots.

One thing you fail to take into account is that other industries compete for Aircraft mechanics. The MTA has what seems to be permanent postings on A&P help wanted sites and they offer better pay and much better benefits. The Young leave as fast as they can hire them. Cheap airfares makes an airline job less appealing. Tell a 20 something kid he will get one Friday and one Saturday night a year off for the first five years and you know he is gone. I saw that back in 86 when we had two weeks of vacation and the real pay was nearly double what it is now. 

 

[WorldTraveler]

I do understand that, Bob. An aircraft mechanic can get hired in non-aviation locations but not the other way around. That is precisely why the airline industry has to fix the salary problem for mechanics or they will never be able to retain good talent.

I'm on your side on this one, Bob.

 

[RJcasualty]

So WT, what are the differences in regional feed strategies between DL and AAG going forward--- especially in view of the RAH vote?  Does DL have one locked in whereas AAG is stymied by virtue of timing and circumstance?  Please be concise and to the point.