Acquisition By Another Airline Best Solution

[Busdrvr]

"I figure UA and AA are really hoping for a break up, rather than a merger between U and HP."

Can't speak for AA, or UAL management for that matter, but the UAL employees hope for a U recovery. Hopefully the positive revenue trends and strengthing economy will get the revenue numbers where they need to be and U can continue as a great airline, with a minimum level of pain.

 

[Winglet]

Nothing in the industry is going to get better until the supply goes down and the price comes up. The economy is still crap and rapidly evolving into either $7 an hour jobs or $200k jobs, despite Mr. Bush putting lipstick on the pig. Oil and jet fuel is going up and going to stay there. Inflation is gaining steam and a horribly expensive war in Iraq is heading south in a hurry now. Al Qaida is reorganizing and the rest of the west is cowering.

Other airline CEOs may not mind a merger between U and HP. The straights that U's in might cut the legs off HP.

If anyone thinks this isn't going to implode sooner or later, you're dreaming. For all the major airlines to survive, all this would have to reverse itself double-quick. In order of demise, I would predict:

1. US Air
2. UAL
3. DAL - AMR dead heat
4. CON
5. NWA

 

[deltawatch]

In order of demise, I would predict:

1. US Air
2. UAL
3. DAL - AMR dead heat
4. CON
5. NWA

Spoken like a loyal AA employee!

 

[Busdrvr]

"The economy is still crap and rapidly evolving into either $7 an hour jobs or $200k jobs, despite Mr. Bush putting lipstick on the pig"

Median incomes in the US have risen steadily since the 1950's. The only component that has slowed it down is the lower wages earned by immigrants.

"Inflation is gaining steam"

Not hardly, the US is arguably in the best economic condition of all the developed world

http://www.economist.com/markets/indicator...tory_id=2656109

"Oil and jet fuel is going up and going to stay there"

Then I'd think you'd want an administration willing to drill in Alaska and reduce our dependance on the middle east.

"In order of demise, I would predict:"

I think you should take a closer look at the items that would lead to an airline collapsing, ie liquidity. Make special not of airlines that have HUGE debt priciple payments due, in addition to remarkably old jets that MUST be replaced at some point. Even DC-9's are prohibitively expensive to keep in the air once a rework of the pressure bulkheads comes due...

 

[RWerksman]

I really dont know about the AWA talk... it seems really, really, really unlikely.

It would be cool though. Can you imagine the route network that would create?


Hold on....

How about that?

 

[Busdrvr]

All I saw was a BUNCH OF RED INK on the map.......

 

[RWerksman]

All I saw was a BUNCH OF RED INK on the map.......

They're routes!

really....

 

[jimntx]

Median incomes in the US have risen steadily since the 1950's.

I've always loved the "median income" lie. If Dave Siegel makes $4.5 mil and you are making $15,000/yr, then we can say that the median income at US Airways is $2,257,500! So, I don't know what you people are complaining about with your supposed concessions. All median income means is that half the salary amounts being paid in the U.S. are below the median and half are above. But income does not necessarily mean salary which is what the majority of workers in this country receive.

"Inflation is gaining steam"

Not hardly, the US is arguably in the best economic condition of all the developed world

Well, if oil stays above $40/bbl, I think you most definitely will find the economic condition to be arguable. But then, pilots seldom see that there is a problem paying the bills, or educating the kids, or buying the prescription medicine. It's obvious that the rest of us are lying.

"Then I'd think you'd want an administration willing to drill in Alaska and reduce our dependance on the middle east.

Hate to burst your bubble, but if we covered the ANWR in drilling rigs, we would not produce nearly enough oil to replace the Middle East sources. I worked in the oil business for over 20 years. There ain't that much oil in the ANWR. The U.S. appetite for oil is not going to be sated anywhere but the Middle East. They are the only ones with sufficient oil to keep your Hummer on the road.

 

[PITbull]

Just as an example: Cockpit pay rates (A320) at JetBlue and America West are in average US$20 lower than at U. Just calculate the savings in that category.

JetBlue outsourcers more and I can’t speak for other groups but I think that their wages are lower than @ U too. So if it takes to get to the level of JetBlue in pay scales and to outsource some additional work and just concentrate on the core business (flying aircrafts from A to B in a safe, efficient and reliable way) I think U can pull it off.

At the end there are people who are not going to be happy but the majority will have a job.

Oh, goodie we got a job.

 

[Busdrvr]

"I've always loved the "median income" lie."

Oh, and poverty rates have fallen consistantly also. Less poor people, and the "median" income goes up. hmmm... The way the wacky left portrays it is that Bill Gates got richer while everybody else got poorer. simply not true. Median income ALSO assumes HALF of all wage earners made MORE than the median income.

"Well, if oil stays above $40/bbl, I think you most definitely will find the economic condition to be arguable."

Did you check the link, or are you just spouting off? Highest projected GDP growth in the developed world for the next two years, plus low inflation.

"Hate to burst your bubble, but if we covered the ANWR in drilling rigs, we would not produce nearly enough oil to replace the Middle East sources. I worked in the oil business for over 20 years. There ain't that much oil in the ANWR."

Really? How much is there? you a geologist? concensus estimates of anwar indicate that within 5 years it would be producing more than Iraq.

http://www.anwr.org/

BTW, the wacky left predicted there wouldn't be much oil at the other north shore site. 1.5 million barrels a day would cut US oil imports by approx 15%, and provide a slew of good paying union jobs

 

[LGA Fleet Service]

Answer 2; TWA didn't have the language.

From what I remember all scope and successorship language in all of the labor contracts at TWA had to be dropped as a precondition by AMR in order for the deal to proceed.

The unions balked at that,and TWA filed a S1113 motion to void the labor agreements altogether.It was at that point that the unions agreed to lift the S&S language from their respective contracts.

 

[deltawatch]

The unions balked at that,and TWA filed a S1113 motion to void the labor agreements altogether.It was at that point that the unions agreed to lift the S&S language from their respective contracts.

I see, big mistake by TWA unions. They should have made them do it, there must be a downside to S1113. Remember what AA did to them shortly there after. CWA leaders you better do your home work on this issue!

"The odds of US receiving 1113 approval to abrogate contracts borderlines on zero. The payscales and benefits currently enjoyed by most US workgroups are not out-of-line with industry-standard compensation; the fact that most US employees top out in their contracts due to seniority does not inherently make the contract voidable."

 

[TomBascom]

Nothing in the industry is going to get better until the supply goes down and the price comes up.

Speaking of crap...

Go ahead and believe that "excess capacity" myth if you'd like. Continue to cut capacity and raise prices. Eventually you'll be publishing million dollar walk-up fares on the one remaining flight between PHL & DCA. Meanwhile the LCCs, who know what a customer is and how to run a business, will continue to grow, and grow and grow and the legacy carriers will hand over the traffic to someone who's willing to carry it.

The only excess capacity in this industry is an excess of heavily restricted advance purchase and astronomically high walk-up fares. The legacy carriers are basically telling people that they don't want their money. And then scratching their heads when it isn't handed to them anyway.

"The Southwest Effect" is all about the overall increase in traffic when they enter a market. It isn't about stealing that traffic from other airlines -- although they're happy to take it. All boats can rise in that tide. And it can happen without them if anyone cares to try -- it's what the other LCCs have done and it's what HP is doing. Rationalize fares and traffic increases. At a profit. What a concept.

 

[jimntx]

Median income ALSO assumes HALF of all wage earners made MORE than the median income.

No, it does not mean that "half of all wage earners" make more. It means that half have more income. Quit saying that income and salary are synonyms. That is a lie. I'm not working now, but I still have an income (counted in the govt. median income reports) that is close to the median income.

Highest projected GDP growth in the developed world for the next two years, plus low inflation.

Is this the same source that predicted that the Bush tax cuts would eliminate the deficit? And, developed world doesn't mean just the U.S. or necessarily include the U.S. It wasn't all that many years ago, that the U.S. economy was in the tank and Japan's economy was white hot. During those years, the "GDP of the developed world" continued to grow as more and more U.S. businesses disappeared and more and more people were thrown out of work.

Really? How much is there? you a geologist? concensus estimates of anwar indicate that within 5 years it would be producing more than Iraq.

Oh, and which "consensus" is this? Did these estimates come from our friends at Shell or El Paso Energy after they "estimated" their own reserves? Funny, just night before last, the chairman of ExxonMobil (a well-known "wacky left wing" organization) said in a TV interview that "there was no source of oil in the world that would make an appreciable dent in the U.S. dependence upon Middle East oil for the foreseeable future." He did add that if we could separate Iraq from OPEC, we could flood the world with cheap oil because Iraq is second only to Saudi Arabia in oil reserves.
Have I just uncovered the real reason for the Iraq war?
"Your share (and your children's share and your grandchildren's share) of the war cost is $50,000 each. So when making out your check, remember that Halliburton is spelled with 2 L's." David Letterman

 

[deltawatch]

In order of demise, I would predict:

1. US Air
2. UAL
3. DAL - AMR dead heat
4. CON
5. NWA

Winglet if U and HP hook up your list will look like this.

Order of demise
1. UAL
2. DAL - AMR dead heat
3. CON
4. NWA

Thats why I beleive UAL must work a deal with U!

If they do then the list looks like this.

Order of demise
1. DAL - AMR dead heat :blink:
2. CON
3. NWA