Of course I am ranting since we are talking about AA/US. We're best buds since we're talking about UA and I happen to agree with your assessment.
It isn't a question of whether DL is #1 or not.
The question is that the whole merger has been one of glossing over the huge difficulties while making promises that were well beyond what could be expected to occur in anyone's wildest dreams.
I am just dumbfounded by the sheer lack of any intelligent questioning either by AA/US, the analysts, or their fans (including here) about the real cost of what divesting 44 slot pairs is going to have on the resulting entity.
The reason why the Wall Street analysts don't ask the question is because they want the deal to happen and will make money on it.
No one makes money by saying the tough words no matter how real they are. Why didn't anyone ask questions when the mortgage scandal was unfolding? Do you think no one thought thru the implications of what was happening?
The reality as much as you and everyone else want to believe otherwise is that the divestitures will enormously change the US airline industry and the focus will be felt the hardest in AA/US' key markets. Add in the fall of the WA, the coming of Open Skies in Latin America, and the beginning of the DL/VS JV which is the largest competitor AA/BA has had, and there are more revenue challenges coming to AA/US than there have been for any other merger.
Someone who I disagree with often on online forums has noted on another site that there are significant exceptions allowed in the clauses regarding new AA's requirement to keep their current hubs. Many of us have said all along that the revenue and cost benefits from this merger won't come as long as AA and US maintain as much capacity as they currently have. They need to find a reason to get rid of more than 10,000 employees because they have at least that many more than DL or UA have for networks that won't be that much different.
There will be so many attempts to back out of the statements that were made to get this merger passed it will make your head spin.
And yet we continue to hear people worrying about my underwear instead of asking the tough questions about how the math can work when the industry has just changed dramatically underneath new AA.
This forum will become almost exclusively frequented by AA and US people who are now one airline. Who knows how much real discussion will take place.
One thing is certain and that is that there will be a whole lot of people who will wake up one day and realize they have been sold a bill of goods even while trying to forget that there were people who told them repeatedly that a day like this would arrive.
