A single fare search doesn’t say what is happening on a large scale basis for any airline.
That is why the DOT uses a statistically valid sample of virtually all tickets on US airlines in order to know the big picture of an airline’s performance.
You simply will not be able to look at unpublished fares such as with corporate travel managers but that goes into how the overall average in a route.
While you and others seem to think that I am always beating up on AA, let’s keep in mind that AA’s decision to not restructure in BK sooner left it for a number of years with costs well above other carriers, including DL which at various points enjoyed a CASM advantage of 10% or more relative to AA.
At the same time, DL’s mega merger which was the first in the industry, gave it the opportunity to focus on what it needed to gain strategically beyond what its merger could deliver. Every merger left a certain amount of things on any carrier’s to-do list.
DL realized that LHR and Latin America was a weak point so invested in 3 foreign airlines that gave DL an inside track at those companies and the ability to cooperate exclusively with them. DL’s investments in those companies have yielded solid growth in those markets. DL also moved aggressively to get rid of those things in its network that do not meet minimum financial targets.
UA has done far less of this but is moving more aggressively now to fix what is broken, with less focus on building what it still doesn’t have.
WN is taking a fairly balanced approach to cutting what doesn’t work and growing into new markets.
Even before the merger, AA started expanding into key markets that it strategically needed. AA has done a lot less cutting. US had already gone thru both the cut and grow phase and was working fairly well within its size restrictions. And there is evidence that AA is finding more success in its DFW-Asia growth than it has seen in LAX, ORD, or NYCCC.
Thus, AA realizes well that it has to catch up with what other carriers have done or are doing, and “neutralize” other carriers’ growth into key AA markets including DL in LHR and Latin America and LCCs into Latin America. Further, AA, whether you want to hear it or not, is having to face the consequences of DL’s aggressive growth and AA’s retreat in NYC which has effects on a number of markets around the world.
You may see these conversations as me picking on AA but they reflect much larger and longer-term significant strategic changes that are taking place in the industry.
