EastCheats said:
Wye
me a river
Wye River: ALPA’s Last Stand
The hunkering down at Wye River this past February was ALPA’s last ditch effort to reach a “consensual” agreement and hopefully save the Mother Ship in the process. Wye River failed, and here’s our take on why.
We all know what happened. Both sides claimed to be right, and that the other side was wrong. They couldn’t find any common ground. This was despite all of ALPA’s “resources” and Garland Jones’ “Elephants in the Room” speech. Not much more to say.
We believe Wye River was doomed by an ALPA miscalculation, not just the resolve of the West to hold the line on the NIC. ALPA shot itself in the foot. We at U-Turn can’t hold the West MEC entirely responsible for what we believe was bad information that led to their decision. We believe ALPA’s misinterpretation of the Wilson Polling was their fatal mistake. ALPA thought the vote was going to be a near tie. The Wilson Poll presented both sides with the same polling information (Source: 3 West pilots and 2 East pilots who were actually there).
The West MEC approval rating was over 70%, with 90% firmly committed to vote for ALPA, 9% voting “other” and only 1% voting for USAPA.
The East MEC approval rating was >20%, with 40% firmly committed to vote for USAPA and 11% for ALPA. 20% were undecided. Add the two sides proportionally and you get close to a tie.
But East responses only added up to 71%, because 29% refused to take the poll. That 29% is the key to an obvious ALPA mistake. ALPA never understood their voting power. That polling was before Wye River and a month before ALPA’s February 29th “Friday Night Massacre” fired the elected PHL Reps and put them into trusteeship.
ALPA had plenty of clues that they were in deep trouble last fall. USAPA got 3,000 signatures in two months. The West propaganda machine pooh-poohed the card campaign, saying it would fall flat on its face. It didn’t.
Then ALPA misread an accidental event which occurred while Wye River was being planned, USAPA’s chopped up ballots. While the West MEC ridiculed the error with a cartoon in their February 5th MEC Update (“If you can’t trust USAPA with a pair of scissors, how can we trust them with our careers?”), USAPA put out a notice through their communications network to resubmit cards. They got 3,100 returns in ten days. If ALPA even noticed, they certainly didn’t react.
Back to Wye River. Did West Merger Attorney and West MEC advisor Jeff Freund really walk out of talks because the MEC refused to give on the NIC or did West MC Chairman Ken Stravers chase him out? Did the West MEC shut their MC out? Did the West LCC members ever get down to nitty-gritty negotiations, which included throwing the West FOs under the bus? Did the East MEC ever come off DOH? And were there really five elephants in the meeting room? Or were there six?