1st Q Numbers look great!

[WorldTraveler]

this thread has been used as a general catchall about WN's statistics. and if the mods don't think this is the right place, I can start a separate thread.

WN's operational performance does indeed matter although some like you don't want to see them if they don't tell the story you want to see.

 

[swamt]

From the article,
 
"...Southwest has the potenial to meet and exceed what investors are looking for and keep pushing its share price higher as a result..."
 
Under promise and over deliver?
 
Good article swamt, and here's to the stock price hopefully going up. 
 
I seem to recall that SWA usually liked anounce new ciites a couple of days before quartly reports.  Still waiting to hear what the last new city announcement will be.  I'd love to hear PTY or CTG.  Stopped at CTG and was amazed at what a beutiful city it was, espcially the older district.

But isn't always typical of SWA stock to dip on good news and dip on bad news?  Some are predicting 200%-300% increase YOY.  Our luck, the day we announce 1Q, fuel prices will skyrocket up near 80's to blow the possibility of stock moving up as we report record numbers again, know what I mean?  Guess we will all find out come 4-23-15...

 

[WorldTraveler]

200 to 300%? no, just no.

the whole stock market is tied to the global economy fears and today global economic fears are hammering stock markets around the world.

Airlines are doing better than the market as a whole which shows how well Wall Street perceives the airline industry after consolidation.

The global economy is just not strong enough and no airline not independent enough from the global economy for WN or any established airline to be able to push up their stock that much in one year.

Wall Street has a pretty good idea on what airlines will report and their expectations are baked into the stock price.

 

[swamt]

The YOY increase is about profits moron not stock. If you would have read my previous posts you would have gotten it. Everyone else did except you, wonder why that is?

 

[WorldTraveler]

since WN's profit margin for the last 12 months was only 6.11%, WN should be doing far better. 3X better? we'll see

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=LUV+Key+Statistics

 

[FWAAA]

First quarter profit last year was $126 million, excluding special items. While it's a given that WN will report higher profits this year in the first quarter, I'm skeptical that WN can pull off a 250% to 300% increase on the profit number, year over year. A 100% increase equals a doubling of profits, and a 200% increase equals a tripling of profits, and a 300% increase equals a quadrupling of profits.

The earlier estimate of a 250% increase would mean that WN would have to report first quarter earnings of $441 million for this year's first quarter. Not impossible, but I'm skeptical. I haven't followed Southwest's fuel hedging situation, so I don't know what kind of penalty WN owes its counterparties for out-of-the-money hedges.

DL management disclosed earlier this week that it expects to pay a fuel hedge "penalty" of about $2.05 billion this year, giving up approximately half of this years' fuel savings resulting from lower oil prices. Settled fuel hedge contracts don't constitute "special items" (they're added to the fuel cost, as they made the fuel more expensive than the pump price).

My WAG is that WN reports first quarter profits of about $250 million, excluding special items. That would equal a 100% increase over last year's record profit for the first quarter.

 

[swamt]

First quarter profit last year was $126 million, excluding special items. While it's a given that WN will report higher profits this year in the first quarter, I'm skeptical that WN can pull off a 250% to 300% increase on the profit number, year over year. A 100% increase equals a doubling of profits, and a 200% increase equals a tripling of profits, and a 300% increase equals a quadrupling of profits.The earlier estimate of a 250% increase would mean that WN would have to report first quarter earnings of $441 million for this year's first quarter. Not impossible, but I'm skeptical. I haven't followed Southwest's fuel hedging situation, so I don't know what kind of penalty WN owes its counterparties for out-of-the-money hedges.DL management disclosed earlier this week that it expects to pay a fuel hedge "penalty" of about $2.05 billion this year, giving up approximately half of this years' fuel savings resulting from lower oil prices. Settled fuel hedge contracts don't constitute "special items" (they're added to the fuel cost, as they made the fuel more expensive than the pump price).My WAG is that WN reports first quarter profits of about $250 million, excluding special items. That would equal a 100% increase over last year's record profit for the first quarter.

I am skeptable as well. But it was posted that SWA could. I would be ecstatic if they do...

 

[swamt]

Here's a little example of what I read before.  Maybe not reaching the full 250% but still a very large increase of at least 3 times earnings same time last year.  Hoping we at least hit these estimates...
 
U.S. airlines reaching new and profitable heights

 

[WNMECH]

Here are the numbers.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/southwest-airlines-reports-record-first-122000225.html?.tsrc=applewf

This represented a 266.7 percent increase from first quarter 2014 and exceeded the First Call consensus estimate of $.65 per diluted share.


These superb results earned our 47,000 hard-working and dedicated Employees a first quarter record $126 million profitsharing accrual, up 334.5 percent from first quarter 2014.

 

[WorldTraveler]

indeed outstanding.

for the company.

any word on progress on contract negotiations?

also further validation that WN is kicking butt at DAL.
"The Customer response to our new Dallas Love Field service, which represents the majority of 2015 year-over-year ASM growth, is very strong, and first quarter 2015 Dallas traffic has increased 145.5 percent from year-ago levels.

DOT market level data for 4th quarter 2014 will be available soon and it is certain to show share shifts to WN and average fare reductions in the market.

 

[WNMECH]

The earlier estimate of a 250% increase would mean that WN would have to report first quarter earnings of $441 million for this year's first quarter. Not impossible, but I'm skeptical. I haven't followed Southwest's fuel hedging situation, so I don't know what kind of penalty WN owes its counterparties for out-of-the-money hedges.


My WAG is that WN reports first quarter profits of about $250 million, excluding special items. That would equal a 100% increase over last year's record profit for the first quarter.

Thanks for playing.

Try again next quarter.

 

[does this plane go to paris]

Outstanding news and for the Employee's a record Profit Sharing, of what? 128Million for 45,000 Employees is a nice little present.
 
SWAMT, you've got some good info there bro.  Puts other rantings and wishful litiagations to shame.  Good news for me, is that it's been over 2 months of IGNORE and the boards are getting better.  I see that ANOTHER topic was closed.
 
Wishful thinking on my part but waiting for the Conference Call and hopefully the next city announcement.

 

[WorldTraveler]

I have consistently said that WN runs a very good airline and these financial reports show it.

WN is transitioning well to the new merged environment and is taking advantage of every opportunity it has to grow.

As has been noted elsewhere, WN's flat RASM growth is the norm with other airlines given the lower fuel environment. AS' RASM dropped considerably and they still increased profits.

The closed thread was a wise call by the moderators to cut off the endless "DL will be out of DAL" posts until something is positively decided one way or another.

 

[robbedagain]

congrats to all the WN frontline folks!

 

[swamt]

Here are the numbers.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/southwest-airlines-reports-record-first-122000225.html?.tsrc=applewf

This represented a 266.7 percent increase from first quarter 2014 and exceeded the First Call consensus estimate of $.65 per diluted share.


These superb results earned our 47,000 hard-working and dedicated Employees a first quarter record $126 million profitsharing accrual, up 334.5 percent from first quarter 2014.

I come with a different number than what your article states.  I took 152,000,000 (Q1-2014) X 298% and came up with 452,960,000 mil.  It is just shy of tripling the profits which would be a 300% increase.  But either way we look at it it is still a fantastic Q1 and more profit sharing for all to enjoy.
Another way is to take 453,000,000 divided by 152,000,000 = 2.98 move 2 positions to convert to % = 298%.  
 
Southwest Airlines earnings nearly triple in first quarter
 
Southwest tops Street 1Q forecasts