Will AA sit this one out?

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

It is POSSIBLE, that the Initial shake-out could be....US/DL = "DL".....and UA/CO =...."UA"....followed by a "stand alone".."AA".....and a "stand alone"...."NW".


NH/BB's

 

[groundcontrol]

It is POSSIBLE, that the Initial shake-out could be....US/DL = "DL".....and UA/CO =...."UA"....followed by a "stand alone".."AA".....and a "stand alone"...."NW".
NH/BB's

I don't think there will be any such thing as "stand alone". It would push an AA/NWA merger.

 

[eolesen]

My guess is UA/CO, US/DL, and a standalone AA. NWA sells off their Pacific routes and becomes a regional.

 

[groundcontrol]

My guess is UA/CO, US/DL, and a standalone AA. NWA sells off their Pacific routes and becomes a regional.

I can almost agree with you here.

Most airline problems today go back to low cost, while these mergers make the airline larger, I don't know that it will accomplish any of them being low cost.

While the rest are merging, jetblue and southwest will be buying up routes (still remaining low cost carriers).

AA would probably be better off stand alone, however merger fever is running rampant.

I think NW is the smarter of them all by hiring Evercore, which is why I don't think they'd waste the time and money if they were to become a regional.

Sad to say the farms outs will begin/continue, and the employees will continue to suffer.

 

[Barfbag]

HOW WILL NWA FIT?: As possible airline mergers create a new picture of the industry, pressure builds to find a partner.
06:37 a.m. 12/14/2006 Provided by


Dec 14, 2006 (Pioneer Press - McClatchy-Tribune Business News via COMTEX) -- The more airline merger proposals that pop up, the more likely Northwest Airlines is to jump in the game.

At least that's what industry experts think.

Two U.S. airline merger proposals are on the table and a third appears to be in the works, as AirTran Holdings said Wednesday it would continue to pursue a previously rebuffed deal with Midwest Air. More deals put more pressure on Northwest and other carriers to look at their options for a possible partner, analysts said.

Think of it as a puzzle, with airlines as the pieces trying to fit themselves together in an ever-changing picture of the industry.

Eagan-based Northwest, which is in bankruptcy reorganization, is keeping quiet. Company spokesman Roman Blahoski wouldn't say whether Northwest is talking with another carrier. Last week, the airline said it plans to hire investment bank Evercore Group to explore "broad strategic alternatives," including a merger or acquisition.

The merger pace has picked up since US Airways' $8.7 billion hostile bid for Delta Air Lines last month. United Airlines also is said to be in preliminary merger talks with Continental Airlines. In the race to cut costs, no one wants to be left behind.

Analysts see the industry as ripe for consolidation: Airlines must cut their operating overhead and reduce overcapacity to become more competitive global players. Analysts also say mergers would help improve profit margins. For example, AirTran said its deal would generate more than $60 million in cost savings, while US Airways said its merger would save $1.65 billion a year. The U.S. airline industry is expected to post a modest profit this year after years of cost cutting and losses.

"I think what Northwest has done is shown they can't just sit on the sidelines," said Brian Nelson, an airline analyst for Morningstar Inc. in Chicago. "Obviously, there's still a lot of uncertainty as to who they'd be interested in. I really wouldn't be able to rule out any carrier at this point."

Even airlines named in other deals are fair game, because no pairing is a sure thing. Delta, which also is in bankruptcy court, is fighting US Airways. A code-share partnership with Continental allows Northwest to block certain merger transactions involving that airline and could complicate any potential deal.

Roger King, an airline analyst at CreditSights, sees Northwest's and United's lucrative Asian routes as key attractions. He thinks Northwest could partner with American Airlines, Continental or Delta. If Continental's merger with United goes through, it would force American to look at Northwest. Continental, which is strong in Europe and Latin America, also could pursue a deal with Northwest, he said.
Northwest's bankruptcy status also makes it an attractive acquisition target because the company has more leeway to renegotiate contracts and aircraft leases and cut unprofitable routes. US Airways CEO Doug Parker has said that half of the expected cost savings from its bid for Delta would disappear outside of bankruptcy. Both Northwest and Delta plan to emerge from bankruptcy by mid-2007.

Analysts say Northwest could survive on its own -- though details of its bankruptcy reorganization plan and its new cost structure have yet to be seen -- but merging might make more financial and strategic sense.

In a recorded message to employees on Tuesday, Northwest CEODougSteenland tried to downplay a possible merger: "We need to be prepared because of the current industry environment ... things can change quickly and it's important that we have ongoing access to advisers who are experienced in these sorts of things," he said. "Evercore will help us evaluate the entire industry and developments affecting other carriers and if there's anything that affects us."

But some of Northwest's labor groups are getting ready, just in case. This summer, the pilots union at Northwest set up a merger committee to negotiate the integration of pilot seniority lists if a deal occurs. The flight attendants union is considering a similar move.

 

[L1011Ret]

Let's face it, AA cannot merge or acquire anyone. The APA and APFA have set the ground rules for merger or acquisition by insisting all pilots and F/As be treated as new hires with seniority date equal to the merger or acquisition date. That leaves AA with only one option to pick over pieces of some failed carrier.

 

[RobertD]

That leaves AA with only one option to pick over pieces of some failed carrier.

Ya, that sounds like NWA.

 

[twaokc]

What AA did to the TWA employees is going to come around and bite them good. When all is said and done, AA will be aquried by another airline. But wait, it will not affect the TWA employees that were able to hold a job a AA. With their seniority, they will all be retired.
I am waiting for the DAY. I already retired, so I could care less. I am on Medicare, so do not need the expensive insurance, nor have I or will I use their passes.

 

[aafsc]

What AA did to the TWA employees is going to come around and bite them good. When all is said and done, AA will be aquried by another airline. But wait, it will not affect the TWA employees that were able to hold a job a AA. With their seniority, they will all be retired.
I am waiting for the DAY. I already retired, so I could care less. I am on Medicare, so do not need the expensive insurance, nor have I or will I use their passes.

I doubt another airline will acquire AA. But IF it were to happen, the AA unions would NOT surrender the labor protective provisions in their contracts like the twa unions did.

 

[kirkpatrick]

Yes, they would.

MK

 

[Bob Owens]

Yes, they would.

MK

I agree.

 

[Hunter]

I doubt another airline will acquire AA. But IF it were to happen, the AA unions would NOT surrender the labor protective provisions in their contracts like the twa unions did.

Really? You actually think APA, APFA and most of all the TWU would not surrender whatever was asked of them if they were facing the abrogation of their entire contact, including the $ union security clause $? I want some of what you’re smoking.

It is awfully easy to be filled with such false bravado in a hypothetical situation.

By the way, you might want to give the APFA LPP's a read. Right about the time of the hatchet job they did on the former TWA flight attendants, APFA ripped off our LLP's nearly verbatim. Talk about self serving.

 

[aafsc]

You are right, it is nothing more than a hypothetical situation started by an ex-twaer who is just dying for something bad to happen to nAAtives because they refused to step aside and let the twa people have full seniority from their cadaver of an airline which would have resulted in nAAtives being stapled under them. Unlike the desperate twa people, the nAAtives would not stand for the relinquishment of labor protections in their contracts.

 

[Hunter]

[...]Unlike the desperate twa people, the nAAtives would not stand for the relinquishment of labor protections in their contracts.

Buddy, you are so naive that it is almost refreshing. Actually, it is quaint how you believe that you or any other member has any sway in the business that is union representation. Let me assure you that if an action has any potential to disrupt the flow of dues dollars, it WILL be avoided.

I will not dignify your baseless personal attack on the former TWA employees except to urge you to seek out some counseling for what must be an overriding feeling of guilt.

 

[Wretched Wrench]

the nAAtives would not stand for the relinquishment of labor protections in their contracts.

The nAAtives will have no say in this. It will be decided by people who were not elected to their positions and have no stake in the issue.