Which of American’s Nine Hubs Are on the Chopping Block?

[WorldTraveler]

Took all of page one for Delta to be tossed into a thread about AA. 
What
A 
Shock.

Took all of page one for Delta to be tossed into a thread about AA. 
What
A 
Shock.

you do realize that every thread about AA in LAX is about what they can do that no one else can, don't you?

as much as you want to believe otherwise, AA execs look at and are continually reminded of other airline performance and metrics.

The fact that AA is underperforming the industry in RASM production and has a market value that is considerably lower than DL's is why Parker has to fix AA's revenue performance.

Wall Street knows it and is valuing AA accordingly.

Valuation for airlines, like airplanes, is based on the market.

 

[Kev3188]

Took all of page one for Delta to be tossed into a thread about AA. 
What
A 
Shock.

Indeed.

In other news, water is still wet...

 

[jimntx]

If it's any consolation, when I was recalled from furlough in November, 2004, I picked assignment to STL over LGA or DCA.  I live in Dallas and lived in Houston for 30 years; so, taking 1.5 hours to get to work was no big deal to me.    I was told with rock-solid assurance that I had made the wrong choice because STL would be closed as a hub and possibly as even a station within 2 years.  I spent 6 years at STL before I got my transfer back to DFW in Feb. 2011.  STL is smaller than it was when I first went there, but it's still chugging along.  The flight attendants even have an international flight on their bid sheet now.  STL-MIA-CUR-MIA-STL.
 
I wouldn't put the PHX house on the market until you get official confirmation and a closing date for the hub.

 

[cubs_in_2012]

Thoughts on BOS anyone?

 

[MetalMover]

you do realize that every thread about AA in LAX is about what they can do that no one else can, don't you?
 

ARE YOU SERIOUS?
 
No one posts about how wonderful, great and the best Delta is more than you.
 
You have got to be kidding with a remark like this.

 

[WorldTraveler]

I post the truth.

If the truth happens to include a disproportionate amount of good vs. bad, then maybe it is you and others that can't stand that DL is running a better business and airline.

IN the case of this discussion, people here continually seem to think that AA will be exempt from hub cuts and closures despite the fact that DL, as the first megacarrier merger, did exactly that and UA is in the process of it right now.

I have never denied that it has happened at DL but I also say that the justification for the AA/US merger was based on network rationalization and htat has yet to happen. AA is underperforming the industry even though it is posting record profits.

AA mgmt. can either continue to remain in the shadows of more profitable companies or fix their network issues which are causing lower profits.

It ain't personal. it's not even prophetic. it is business and it will happen.

to pretend that it will not can only come from those who are disconnected from reality.

 

[700UW]

WT's Fabricated Facts ARE NOT the TRUTH!

 

[Albert]

I post the truth.

If the truth happens to include a disproportionate amount of good vs. bad, then maybe it is you and others that can't stand that DL is running a better business and airline.

IN the case of this discussion, people here continually seem to think that AA will be exempt from hub cuts and closures despite the fact that DL, as the first megacarrier merger, did exactly that and UA is in the process of it right now.

I have never denied that it has happened at DL but I also say that the justification for the AA/US merger was based on network rationalization and htat has yet to happen. AA is underperforming the industry even though it is posting record profits.

AA mgmt. can either continue to remain in the shadows of more profitable companies or fix their network issues which are causing lower profits.

It ain't personal. it's not even prophetic. it is business and it will happen.

to pretend that it will not can only come from those who are disconnected from reality.

Reading your posts are like reading the transcript of a six hour C-Span session

 

[WorldTraveler]

and yet they come from the DOT.

ANYTHING you don't like is fabricated; we know that full well.

if it goes over your head, then have the guts to admit you don't understand it and walk away.

calling someone else a liar because you don't understand it says way more about you than me.

 

[Jester]

Thoughts on BOS anyone?

 
I posted over a year ago that BOS was a logical station to see expanded flights as it was once an AA focus city and part of the (former?) US shuttle service between LGA and DCA.  The FF base would be there and the income level of area and business traveler would appear to be a natural choice.
 
I have heard *RUMORS* that BOS is being considered for additional flights to non-hub stations, but hey, whadda I know....

 

[strangiatotheme]

I don't expect AA's market share in PHX to fluctuate much in the nearish-medium future; there may be an upgauging of equipment with a reduction in frequencies but from what I'm seeing and hearing it looks like PHX is being better primed to do what it does already, which is accommodate a large number of tight, narrowbody connections.  A lot of money is being spent to this end and other improvements in tech, equipment, and facilities.  Most of the gates on the N1 and N2 concourse are going to be re-aligned to allow nearly all of them to take A321's (and possibly 757's) so that we can service even more of those at a given time.  What I've been hearing and what I believe Kirby said at the last town hall was that PHX will be seeing a lot of A321 and B737-8 activity with A320's and A319's being reduced over time.
 
The key to PHX is scalability with demand for domestic air travel.  We already see this with the calendars consisting of FLEX, regular ops, and reduced-ops days.  When demand is high PHX runs on all cylinders, almost bursting at the seams; when demand is low operations are limited to reduce costs.  This makes staffing a huge pain the the butt but it's a profitable practice as it allows PHX to grab the demand when it's there and retract when it's not.
 
According to the route map, DFW serves nine markets in California, LAX serves seven, but PHX serves fifteen.  I just don't see LAX and DFW being able to as efficiently provide the coverage, frequency, and volume that PHX does to California.  Let LAX focus on perfecting O&D offerings there and let PHX do the heavy connecting in the West.

In total agreement here. With regards to LAX, while it appears that there will be some room to grow that operation, I don't see it coming at the expense of PHX necessarily. Pushing some of the connecting flows LAX currently handles to PHX will play on each stations strengths; LAX will have more available inventory to cater to the O&D traffic while PHX handles more connecting volume with less constrained resources. Seems like a win-win for everyone.

I also see the trend of upgauging continuing...seems to be an industry wide thing these days but PHX has been experiencing it for quite some time, ever since the arrival of the first new A321s in 2008. It's clear to see in the numbers what's been happening since then; comparing 2007 to 2014, yearly mainline departures are down about 14.6% yet yearly mainline emplanements are up roughly 1.6%. This will be critical to managing the increased cost structure that the merger is bringing with it.

Interesting that you bring up Flex. I recall a conversation with a coworker when they had added a grand total of 3 extra flights to the last complex following Thanksgiving a few years back. We discussed how it could be expanded to include other peak travel times of the year. Low and behold, 6 months later that's exactly what happened as they began to ramp that operation up for Memorial Day. Today, I believe that schedule accounts for over 100 days of the year. Not only has it been expanded within the network beyond PHX, but UA and DL have recently begun emulating this practice as well at DEN and SLC, respectively.

Also, just something I noticed recently now that Sky Harbor has been posting more detailed traffic statistics. There was always this long held belief that while standalone US was the dominant carrier at PHX, their share of the local market was eclipsed by WN. Apparently not so; if their worksheet breakdowns are to be believed, WN is being edged out consistently in local pax emplanements. The split appears to be about 50/50 between connecting and local. If you include AA that ratio skews local even further,, although as the LAA operation has been slowly merged into the hub flow, I'd expect it to settle back a bit.

Any idea what the final gate configuration will look like? Will some gates be lost? I find it hard to believe they can do it without losing at least one; that's assuming of course that they're sizing for 117.5-ft wingspans. If they're going with the standard Airbus wingspan, that's going to create a huge issue when more 737s start showing up. Already experiencing this issue over at the hangar. The gate redesign in 2011 was not without its problems either. Putting 321s on the end gates caused issues with PBB slopes, and some of the gate spacing on N1 is ridiculously tight.

 

[commavia]

I have heard *RUMORS* that BOS is being considered for additional flights to non-hub stations, but hey, whadda I know....

 
I continue to believe that with AA's combined, substantially larger presence at BOS (now a close #2 at the airport overall), it can support additional - non-hub - flying.  In my mind, the three obvious "low hanging fruit" opportunities for AA to strengthen its presence at BOS in markets where it also now has a very strong presence are RDU (3-4x daily 2-class RJs), YYZ (2-3x daily 2-class RJs) and SFO (2-3x daily mainline).

 

[Jester]

Any idea what the final gate configuration will look like? Will some gates be lost? I find it hard to believe they can do it without losing at least one; that's assuming of course that they're sizing for 117.5-ft wingspans. If they're going with the standard Airbus wingspan, that's going to create a huge issue when more 737s start showing up. Already experiencing this issue over at the hangar. The gate redesign in 2011 was not without its problems either. Putting 321s on the end gates caused issues with PBB slopes, and some of the gate spacing on N1 is ridiculously tight.

 
I think it is pretty obvious there will need to be some loss of gates with the addition of more AA B737s on N1 and N2, especially away from the end gates.  The shorter Airbus wings are already pretty tight at the gates, and the winglets on B737 are over 5 feet longer to the overall wing length.  I don't know if the catering trucks could even fit through two B737s wingtips as the wings are substantially lower. If I had a preference, I would eliminate the gates closer to the connecting terminal walkways (as those aren't available for A321s), and space the gates out evenly up to the end gates.

 

[ChockJockey]

I watched the same townhall and heard Kirby say the Airbus would be leaving over time and the 737 coming in to replace them. He did say the A321 specifically would be going to other places like DFW. He also stated the 737-8 MAX would take over the PHX-Hawaii flights eventually. So after watching the same townhall I took away that the A321 and the 757's were on their wAAy out of PHX. Maybe we both need to re watch it as we got totally different information from the meeting.

 
I re-watched it and I think you are right about what he said re: A321's in PHX, but I didn't hear him mention flying 738 MAX's to Hawaii.  My understanding is that a number of former US East 757's were going to be put on the PHX-HI routes to replace the old HP birds that are really starting to show their age.
 

I also see the trend of upgauging continuing...seems to be an industry wide thing these days but PHX has been experiencing it for quite some time, ever since the arrival of the first new A321s in 2008. It's clear to see in the numbers what's been happening since then; comparing 2007 to 2014, yearly mainline departures are down about 14.6% yet yearly mainline emplanements are up roughly 1.6%. This will be critical to managing the increased cost structure that the merger is bringing with it.

 
Yep.  We continue to see 321's placed on routes they'd never been used on before, such as PHX-IAH and PHX-RNO.  One of the largest complications we have with the PM Flex operations is lack of 321-capable gates.
 

Any idea what the final gate configuration will look like? Will some gates be lost? I find it hard to believe they can do it without losing at least one; that's assuming of course that they're sizing for 117.5-ft wingspans. If they're going with the standard Airbus wingspan, that's going to create a huge issue when more 737s start showing up. Already experiencing this issue over at the hangar. The gate redesign in 2011 was not without its problems either. Putting 321s on the end gates caused issues with PBB slopes, and some of the gate spacing on N1 is ridiculously tight.

 
I haven't seen any visuals, but word is that at N1 gate A17 will be unchanged while one gate (possibly A28) will get squeezed out, and all the rest will be re-aligned.  So a net loss of one gate for N1 and N2.  The word was they wanted as many gates as possible to be able to hold 757's, short of that I'm guessing they want as many 737-capable gates as they can get.
 
FWIW, the idiotic jetways on A12 and B12 are slated to be replaced, but I'm not sure when.

 

[strangiatotheme]

If I had a preference, I would eliminate the gates closer to the connecting terminal walkways (as those aren't available for A321s), and space the gates out evenly up to the end gates.

  

Agreed, especially 17. Give more room to T-point at least, or finally acknowledge the de-facto CONX parking lot that 17/19 inevitably morph into by the end of the day.
 

My understanding is that a number of former US East 757's were going to be put on the PHX-HI routes to replace the old HP birds that are really starting to show their age.

Makes the most sense. I doubt that any version of the MAX or even the 321LR can make PHX-HI comfortably.
 

Yep.  We continue to see 321's placed on routes they'd never been used on before, such as PHX-IAH and PHX-RNO.  One of the largest complications we have with the PM Flex operations is lack of 321-capable gates.

Nice adds. Remember saying the same thing seeing them put on routes like DEN and PDX. Hard to believe that just a few years ago routes like ORD were all 320s.
 

I haven't seen any visuals, but word is that at N1 gate A17 will be unchanged while one gate (possibly A28) will get squeezed out, and all the rest will be re-aligned.  So a net loss of one gate for N1 and N2.  The word was they wanted as many gates as possible to be able to hold 757's, short of that I'm guessing they want as many 737-capable gates as they can get.

Interesting that they'd want to control the layout with 757s. Wonder if that's saying something for the near future, or if they just prefer the extra space and flexibility.  I'd probably go with the latter.  It's an extra 9 feet or so on either side, or nearly the recommended wingtip clearance margin between gates, so that can eat up a lot of space over the length of the concourse. If they can do it with one less gate that would be great, though even making them all fully ADG-III capable is a big step up from what it is now.
 

 
FWIW, the idiotic jetways on A12 and B12 are slated to be replaced, but I'm not sure when.

Good riddance. I've never held such a deep-seated hatred for an inatimate object like those teleradials. They'd be great as legs for The Man at next year's gathering...