What Cities Are Next?

[More Facts and Less Emotion]

Now that Southwest is up to 28 flights and several more cities, what cities will they launch next - and when?

 

[oldiebutgoody]

My guess is PIT, DCA or CLT. Maybe all three. Then we can have another webcast about how well this latest plan has been working!

 

[More Facts and Less Emotion]

My guess is PIT, DCA or CLT. Maybe all three. Then we can have another webcast about how well this latest plan has been working!

I would think that they would fly to cities they already serve. And since PIT, DCA and CLT are not served today, that would be a new city on both ends.

I was wondering about places like New Mexico.

 

[oldiebutgoody]

I would think that they would fly to cities they already serve. And since PIT, DCA and CLT are not served today, that would be a new city on both ends.

I was wondering about places like New Mexico.

Huh? SW owns Albuquerque. To my knowledge they DON'T yet go to those three UAIR cities, but they've got to smell blood now.

 

[mga707]

I was wondering about places like New Mexico.

I would think ABQ-PHL is a definite future possibility, as there already is an ABQ-BWI nonstop.
ELP-PHL is much less of a possibility (Yes, I know ELP is in Texas, but it's catchment area includes plenty of New Mexico real estate.)

To me, the two most obvious ommissions (so far) are PHL-BNA and PHL-MCI.

 

[GadgetFreak]

I would guess STL. They have a pretty large operation there. It would get them another place mid-country. May be too close to Chicago though. It would certainly annoy AA however.

 

[robbedagain]

i would think orf would be a choice since most of the phl-orf flts are now done on the commuters with may be a couple of jets

 

[sfb]

Well, these are the top 100 markets out of PHL as of 2Q03 (with daily pax counts, apologies if I made a mistake):

Orlando/Kissimmee, FL 2128.9
Chicago, IL 2084.94
Atlanta, GA 2039.23
Boston, MA 1404.61
Ft. Lauderdale, FL 1383.62
Los Angeles, CA 1268.13
Tampa/St. Petersburg/Lakeland, FL 1132.96
Las Vegas, NV 1123.18
San Francisco, CA 980.65
Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX 949.12
Denver, CO 689.12
Houston, TX 683.95
Phoenix, AZ 650.54
Minneapolis/St.Paul, MN 598.02
West Palm Beach, FL 594.61
Miami, FL 583.73
Detroit, MI 567.25
Pittsburgh, PA 535.49
Ft. Myers, FL 521.86
Raleigh/Durham, NC 508.57
New Orleans, LA 506.59
Seattle, WA 455.93
San Diego, CA 453.51
Jacksonville, FL 404.72
Kansas City, MO 372.41
St. Louis, MO 371.64
Charlotte, NC 354.17
Columbus, OH 334.17
Milwaukee, WI 297.58
Indianapolis, IN 288.79
Cincinnati, OH 269.34
Cleveland, OH 253.29
Memphis, TN 246.59
Santa Ana, CA 220.32
Greensboro/High Point, NC 207.8
San Antonio, TX 189.12
Nashville, TN 187.91
Salt Lake City, UT 171.53
Portland, OR 167.14
San Jose/Palo Alto, CA 164.5
Albuquerque, NM 144.72
Savannah, GA 140
Hartford, CT/Springfield, MA 134.83
Austin, TX 128.02
Charleston, SC 124.72
Dayton, OH 124.5
Portland, ME 121.53
Sacramento, CA 119.34
Providence, RI 116.26
Louisville, KY 114.94
Buffalo, NY 110.98
Norfolk, VA 109.12
Manchester, NH 102.08
Des Moines, IA 100.54
Madison, WI 100.1
Pensacola, FL 99.67
Grand Rapids, MI 99.45
Omaha, NE 99.23
Richmond, VA 94.28
Tucson, AZ 93.62
Myrtle Beach, SC 88.35
Greenville/Spartanburg, SC 85.49
Rochester, NY 84.39
Ontario, CA 81.64
Reno, NV 78.79
Burlington, VT 72.74
Columbia, SC 69.23
Lexington/Frankfort, KY 67.14
Knoxville, TN 64.28
Birmingham, AL 63.84
South Bend, IN 63.51
Oakland/Berkeley, CA 62.08
Oklahoma City, OK 62.08
Tallahassee, FL 59.34
Tulsa, OK 56.59
Key West, FL 56.04
Colorado Springs, CO 55.38
Albany, NY 53.95
Wichita, KS 53.73
Cedar Rapids/Iowa City, IA 52.3
Gulfport/Biloxi, MS 47.47
Little Rock, AR 45.71
Huntsville/Decatur, AL 45.16
Moline, IL/Davenport, IA 44.94
Hilton Head Island, SC 42.52
Baton Rouge, LA 41.75
Valparaiso, FL 39.78
Chattanooga, TN 38.57
Ft. Wayne, IN 37.36
Indio/Palm Springs, CA 37.03
Mobile, AL 36.81
El Paso, TX 36.37
Syracuse, NY 36.04
Spokane, WA 34.72
Charleston, WV 34.5
Roanoke, VA 33.18
Daytona Beach, FL 33.18
Fayetteville, AR 31.64
Boise, ID 31.42
Toledo, OH 29.78

I wish you could do HTML tables with this BB software.

To engage in some amateur analysis of the top cities:

• MCO and MDW were announced with three flights each in the first wave.
• ATL is not a WN station and has DL/FL.
• BOS is served via WN's surrogates of PVD & MHT.
• FLL and LAX were announced today.
• TPA was announced in the first group and got another flight today.
• LAS was announced in the first group.
• SFO is unserved by WN but OAK or SJC would work for them.
• DFW can't be served by WN from DAL.
• DEN is unserved by WN and will have UA/F9.
• HOU was announced today.
• PHX was announced in the first six cities.
• MSP is unserved by WN.
• PBI was announced today.
• MIA is served by WN via FLL.
• DTW is possible but is a NW hub.
• PIT and RSW are unserved by WN.
• RDU and MSY were announced today.
• SEA, SAN, JAX, MCI, and STL could all be added in the future, as could CMH, IND, CLE, SAT, and BNA.
• CLT, MKE, CVG, MEM, and GSO are not WN cities.

I'd also add that ALB, BUF, and BDL are possibilities as WN builds up at PHL, though I think ISP is unlikely.

 

[usairways85]

i would definitely think more frequencies on all those routes with only 1 daily flt. Also i think STL will become a destination sooner rather than later

 

[ktflyhome]

I wish we still flew to San Antonio. I never understood why we stopped service there, when flights were always full. You could never non-rev. The River walk was a dream.

 

[mweiss]

I wish we still flew to San Antonio. I never understood why we stopped service there, when flights were always full. You could never non-rev. The River walk was a dream.

SAT's a fine town for a RON. So is AUS, though I haven't been there since they moved to the new airport.

I still strongly believe that PIT would make a great deal of sense for WN to target soon. I know US's O&D in PIT has been low, but knowing what I do about WN's pricing model, they could singlehandedly double the O&D market in less than six months.

 

[BoeingBoy]

My guess (crystal ball is in the shop) is that they will initially concentrate on the cities they currently serve - just like the flights they've announced so far.

I think mweiss is right about PIT, though I would put it a little further down the road.

I would also expect them to add as many longer flights as shorter ones - Florida, midwest, and far west. Why? JetBlue - who enjoys a 1.5 cent unit cost advantage over WN mostly because of their longer average stage length. Wn needs to clsoe that gap and the easiest way by far is long haul.

Jim

 

[mweiss]

I think mweiss is right about PIT, though I would put it a little further down the road.

Ya know, that brings me to something I've wondered for a while about WN. They're certainly methodical about expansion, for which I cannot fault them. But I wonder what's the critical path for WN's expansion to a new city. Is it aircraft purchases? Do they do extensive, detailed market analysis, and, if so, is that what holds them back?

Jim, any thoughts?

 

[BoeingBoy]

mweiss,

Just some guesses...

Planes are a factor - can't add flying without adding planes. Otherwise you're just moving flying around.

I doubt that it's possible to have their 30+ year record without market research - no throwing darts at a map, I presume.

As for market research, a tidbit of what could be called trivia. You can send people to the airport parking lot to look at tags - that tells you where they're from but not where they're going. You can have "spys" in the boarding area - that tells you how many are going where but not where they're from.


For the complete detailed picture, you get the BTS collected data. The detailed info on fares paid, O & D of the passengers, etc comes out about 6 months after each quarter ends, however - kinda like propiatary (sp?) business data.

Jim

 

[ClueByFour]

As for market research, a tidbit of what could be called trivia. You can send people to the airport parking lot to look at tags - that tells you where they're from but not where they're going. You can have "spys" in the boarding area - that tells you how many are going where but not where they're from.

Supposedly, that's one of the ways (cruising the parking lots at BWI) that they decided on PHL.

I personally think most of those plates were from Central PA (MDT country), but LUV's analysts are clearly better at this than I am...