US-Japan agree to daytime slots at HND

[strangiatotheme]

The below reference "..to significantly expand the number of U.S. cities that can support commercially viable Haneda service.." will IMO be an important factor in the final DOT decision. My bet is that submissions with JFK/LAX/SFO as the orign will have a lessor weight on an award decision than secondary cities - particularly those with no current Japan service, such as PHL and MIA. 
 
"Daytime access to Haneda has the potential to significantly expand the number of U.S. cities that can support commercially viable Haneda service, in contrast to what is economically viable with nighttime slots. Considering the substantially changed circumstances, the Department believes that the public interest warrants a completely fresh look at the U.S.-Haneda market to determinewhich allocations would best serve the public interest."

JFK is currently unserved isn't it? And MIA/PHL don't have any existing Asian nonstop service to begin with; those would be DOA. I tend to think that airports like JFK/EWR, ORD, or DTW stand a better chance with a new daytime slot than any west coast gateway or a city with no existing Japan service.

 

[zethya]

JFK is currently unserved isn't it? And MIA/PHL don't have any existing Asian nonstop service to begin with; those would be DOA. I tend to think that airports like JFK/EWR, ORD, or DTW stand a better chance with a new daytime slot than any west coast gateway or a city with no existing Japan service.

NYC is served by ANA, JAL, DL and UA (EWR) non-stop to Tokyo. The DOT has in the past favored cities with no existing services over those with. The ? is, will AA think outside the box and submit an application for anything other than LAX/JFK? 

 

[strangiatotheme]

NYC is served by ANA, JAL, DL and UA (EWR) non-stop to Tokyo. The DOT has in the past favored cities with no existing services over those with. The ? is, will AA think outside the box and submit an application for anything other than LAX/JFK?

This is HND we're talking about; no service to the U.S. exists outside of HNL/SFO/LAX and to date, all of the HND awards have gone to cities with existing NRT service. It also is much more logical considering there are three airports - JFK, DTW, and SEA - that all tried and failed with nighttime slots, and the DOT specifically cites the advantageous economics of daytime slots. Plus, do you really think the DOT would award HND slots to a city pair that has no proven record of service to Japan? If MIA or PHL could sustain flights to Japan, the door is wide open through NRT, and yet no such service exists. Is it possible? Of course. But I don't see why any airline would make such a proposal when there are larger markets still left unserved to HND.

 

[eolesen]

HND will go to the highest O/D markets. LAX alone accounts for ~21% of all Asia originating traffic according to DL's latest route authority filings.

East coast to HND is a pipe dream for now.

 

[FWAAA]

 
The below reference "..to significantly expand the number of U.S. cities that can support commercially viable Haneda service.." will IMO be an important factor in the final DOT decision. My bet is that submissions with JFK/LAX/SFO as the orign will have a lessor weight on an award decision than secondary cities - particularly those with no current Japan service, such as PHL and MIA. 
 
"Daytime access to Haneda has the potential to significantly expand the number of U.S. cities that can support commercially viable Haneda service, in contrast to what is economically viable with nighttime slots. Considering the substantially changed circumstances, the Department believes that the public interest warrants a completely fresh look at the U.S.-Haneda market to determinewhich allocations would best serve the public interest."
 

You may be correct, but I doubt it.  Like the others who have weighed in above, I see NYC, CHI, DFW, ATL and DTW as a "significant" expansion of the US cities that can support commercially viable HND service, and the airlines and the DOT all agree that the only viable cities today are on the west coast due to the current HND operating restrictions.  
 
My assumption is that the HND daytime slots end up in the cities with the highest Tokyo O&D, and that list is comprised of (in order),  LAX, NYC, SFO, CHI and SEA,  ignoring LAS, as no airline has a viable hub there to help fill its HND flights.
 
The US government didn't negotiate with Japan to open access to HND for the benefit of cities lacking flights to Tokyo - access to HND was obtained on the premise that business travelers would prefer HND over NRT.   If a city has never before featured a flight to NRT, there's not much justification for allocating a scarce HND slot to that city.  

Yes, HA was able to waste one of the four HND slots for its new entrant HNL flight so it could compete for Japanese beach tourists, but that allocation made no sense.   DOT sort of said that when HA fought to take away DL's SEA flight along with AA's attempt.  I think that was some strong evidence that DOT may agree with UA, AA and DL when those three gang up on HA in the next few weeks and argue that HA should not get a daytime slot valuable for business travelers but should be given the one new overnight slot for its tourist flight (95%+ of whom originate in Japan).   
 
If a flight to Tokyo from PHL or MIA makes sense, then airlines are free to start such a flight to NRT, and slots are available there.    
 
Although UA and AA have big hubs at IAH and DFW, respectively, I doubt that either airline will apply for those hubs because of the low Tokyo O&D at both.  Maybe ORD, but I'd bet that JFK and EWR are the new airports that AA, UA and DL will ask for, in addition to their current flights at LAX and SFO.  
 
One wild card is that ANA (NH) is getting several more flights than is JAL, so maybe UA can ask for IAH, IAD and/or EWR, knowing that ANA will fill in the gaps.   With JAL getting several fewer than ANA, that puts AA at a disadvantage, albeit a better spot than Delta, lacking a Japanese partner.  
 
As for AA, I predict it files to keep LAX and add ORD and JFK.   I think AA will win on LAX and lose on ORD and JFK.   

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

I like   AA/ORD.........'coming from behind and crossing the finish line first'   !

 

[eolesen]

And this just in... or at least it was in a couple hours ago, and already being discussed in the DL forum (please keep the discussion about DL there):

DL is ending LAX-NRT, now that LAX-HND can launch as a daytime service ---> http://www.airlineforums.com/topic/59783-is-dl-ending-lax-nrt/#entry1229839

So far, AA has kept both HND and NRT, but it wouldn't surprise me to see some similar moves.

 

[FWAAA]

The airlines all filed their answers on Thursday; here is AA's answer:

https://www.regulations.gov/contentStreamer?documentId=DOT-OST-2016-0048-0021&attachmentNumber=1&disposition=attachment&contentType=pdf

Here is the docket if you want to read all the other answers:

https://www.regulations.gov/#!docketDetail;D=DOT-OST-2016-0048

HA was the only applicant for the nighttime frequency and is almost guaranteed to get it.

 

[eolesen]

Some entertaining reading, indeed.

 

[FWAAA]

Some entertaining reading, indeed.

No kidding. According to DL, almost everything in AA's application was untrue.

I don't think that DoT will take away UA's SFO or the two LAX frequencies of AA and DL. Both have great O&D and both can support competition. SFO has JAL and UA while LAX has AA, DL and NH.

This proceeding was a great mechanism for taking away HA's daytime frequency.

 

[700UW]

https://www.runwaygirlnetwork.com/2016/05/10/haneda-snark-ramps/

 

[FWAAA]

Replies were filed yesterday; here is AA's reply:

https://www.regulations.gov/contentStreamer?documentId=DOT-OST-2016-0048-0037&attachmentNumber=1&disposition=attachment&contentType=pdf

Here is the entire docket:

https://www.regulations.gov/#!docketBrowser;rpp=50;so=DESC;sb=postedDate;po=0;dct=N%252BFR%252BPR%252BO;D=DOT-OST-2016-0048

Plenty of entertaining reading. Enjoy.