US Airways Shares Slip Despite Merger Chance, Strong Demand
- Thread starter USA320Pilot
- Start date
Move2CLT
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- Banned
- #17
AOLs track record is fine. We stopped your DOH cramdown and the Nic is ready to be used.Ah yes, It seems that both AOL and USAPA have the same track record to date. Both sides have held the other one to a stalemate. Looks like both sides have seem to have met some of their goals. Too bad the two sides could not meet in the middle somewhere huh? That might be quite the successful venture. Oh wait...I forgot that whole NIC or nothing thing.
USAPA was formed to put DOH on the property. Even with a majority, you failed to do so.
Negs are over and USAPA has no one to meet in the middle with. The Nic is the list accepted by the company.
End of story.
You want to move forward, you do it with the Nic.
nevergiveup
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- Nov 30, 2010
- 2,125
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rrrrrrr
Keroseneuser
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- Aug 9, 2011
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The APA would win even without any US pilots' votes. AA still has far more mainline pilots than US, counting both east and west. And you'd have to be on crack to think that any AA pilots would vote for USAPA. APA may not be perfect, but the USAPA looks to be pilots pretending to be a union. APA has almost 40 years of relative success representing its pilots compared to the history of USAPA and its predecessors at ALPA.
While that may be true, consider this possible chain of events:
AA and US merge/combine/etc (become one airline).
APA, just like it did with the TWA pilots, strives to integrate them fairly, consistent with the new post-TWA federal law (McCaskill/Bond).
APA submits the integration to arbitration. The arbitrator says, well, another aribitrator has already done the heavy lifting with respect to the US integration, and his name is Nicolau. And here's his list. It's even better if Nicolau is the arbitrator. Rather than reinvent the wheel, the arbitrator sets about combining the APA list with the Nic list, which at one time represented the product of agreed-upon binding arbitration of the US pilots, before one group decided to attempt an end-run around the result they deemed unfair and unfavorable.
So the arbitrator combines the APA list and the Nic list. No group is truly happy with the end result, a sure sign that the arbitrator did his job.
Sure, the cut-their-nose-off-to-spite-their-face USAPA East crowd would file lawsuits and fight it for years. But meanwhile, the pilot group would be combined.
I'm not saying that US and AA should get married so US can solve its pilot integration quagmire. But it's possible that a merger with AA could result in a combined list that renders moot the current East v West dispute.
PullUp
Veteran
- May 22, 2010
- 820
- 736
Almost correct. Sure, the battle would be over, seniority finalized, and everyone would be not truly happy, but better off nonetheless.
However, the Nic would not be used; the east, west, new hire, and fuloughed lists would be used to combine with AA.
The transition agreement would be superceded by a new agreement, and Nic would be moot.
Everyone must realize however, that the result may not be better than what you have with the Nic - it could actually be worse!
Cheers.
Said the guy posting on these boards.
My life is not wasted if I can give an eastie a clue. I've done that already.
Everything else is gravy.
A clue of what you are made of, that's all you have given us.
cactusboy53
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- May 9, 2007
- 2,649
- 7,407
Do you have a law degree or special education in labor law? Have you read ALL legal documents including the Arbitration Transcripts, the Addington Case, and the Declaratory Action? Have you sat down with any lawyer (other than SSM&P), and did they advise you that you could easily dodge the final & binding arbitration that is the Nicolau Seniority List?
My guess is a resounding NO. Your argument is the same old emotional, uneducated opinions of yourself and the USAPIAN faithful. You only believe what USAPA spoon feeds you (ie the most recent USAPA legal update regarding the NY case vs. the actual ruling). USAPA was just "spanked" (again) by the courts and arbitrators this past week (2X). Judge Silver is giving USAPA's legal team enough rope to hang themselves (again).
Delay is all that you have bought. It has cost us all HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS and time off that you will never recover.
USAPA = Don't hate me because I'm inept.....
Move2CLT
Veteran
- Banned
- #27
Not even close. Please don't mix your wishful thinking in with fact - doesn't work.
The APA is in receipt of a letter from AoL regarding the Nicolau and its use in the next integration. The integration is between USAPA and the APA with the only list representing our ENTIRE pilot group being the Nicolau.
With the latest filing by the company its obvious Parker understands this as well. The list is in possession of the company and nothing but the Nicolau will be used to integrate with APA should that ever happen.
The Nic is it. There is no getting out from underneath it.
OP
USA320Pilot
Veteran
- May 18, 2003
- 8,175
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- Thread Starter
- Thread starter
- #28
APA News Digest: March 9, 2012
Analyst's "Observations" on AMR/US Airways Merger
This week Rodman & Renshaw's airline analyst, Dan McKenzie, issued an investor note with the following observations regarding the speculation of a US Airways (LCC)/AMR merger and acquisition (M&A):
Given M&A drumbeats over a LCC/AMR combination, we make a few observations:
1.We like the combination (assuming no overpayment);
2.Naturally, we haven't seen AMR's complete restructuring plan, but based on what we have seen, we're concluding AMR's growth of 20% over 5 years is enough to destabilize industry pricing (e.g. capacity drives pricing; and growth + highly unstable & presumably higher fuel prices = toxic combination).
3.M&A in Ch. 11 is preferable to M&A outside of Ch. 11.
4.A merger could provide LCC a path to resolving the seniority dispute b/w its East & West pilots (e.g. the divisive Nicalau award was predicated on a single collective bargaining agreement between the East / West pilots at LCC; if LCC merges with another airline, we presume a new collective bargaining agreement would be negotiated among the 3 pilot groups).
5.Many LCC pilots are set to retire, a factor that could also smooth seniority integration. Some quick facts: about 2/3rds of LCC's pilots are East (former US Airways); 1/3 West (former America West); in 6 years, about 755 (or 34%) of the East + West pilots retire; & about 1800 (or 55%) of LCC's pilots retire over 10 years.
Note: a change of control provision in the pilots contract is a separate issue for LCC management.
Analysts on AMR's Business Plan and Mergers
Since management has provided more details on their "business plan," several airline analysts have provided investors their thoughts on AMR's plan and its revenue and network deficiencies. They also commented on merger speculation. The following are excerpts from their commentary:
Hunter Keay, Wolfe Trahan:
•"We think AMR believes high costs and restrictive labor contracts were and are the main drivers of, if not the only reasons for, its revenue deficiency. We believe differently."
•"The cost/labor argument as a facilitator of a revenue deficit was probably true when AMR competed for price sensitive customers against low cost carriers but less true when AMR competed for corporate contracts against other network carriers with more powerful networks."
•"Given that AMR is apparently intent on winning back large corporate customers predominately by restructuring labor contracts but operating a network that closely resembles the network that it had entering bankruptcy we see a low probability of success."
•"We continue to believe that AMR has a low likelihood of emerging from bankruptcy as a viable standalone airline."
•"Network connectivity often drives a convenience premium, in our view, particularly with travelers willing to pay more for non-stop or one-stop service to international destinations - and AMR's strategy still appears focused on targeting high-yielding travelers. Low costs matter more for price-sensitive customers, in our opinion, but network scale matters more for corporate customers."
•"We don't see the standalone plan as sustainable in the long term if AMR's network resembles what it was prior to its restructuring -- and that appears to be the strategy."
Helane Becker, Dahlman Rose:
•"Given the current environment for the airlines, we believe further consolidation is likely."
•"We continue to believe it may be difficult for American Airlines to emerge from Chapter 11 as an independent, standalone company."
•"American's cornerstone strategy (focusing on New York JFK, Miami, Chicago, Dallas/Ft. Worth, and Los Angeles) has not worked for the past five years, and frankly, we do not see how it works going forward."
•"While American is the industry leader in Latin and South America, it has a limited route network in Asia Pacific, and that cannot be solved solely through joint ventures with Qantas, Cathay Pacific, and Japan Airlines."
Analyst's "Observations" on AMR/US Airways Merger
This week Rodman & Renshaw's airline analyst, Dan McKenzie, issued an investor note with the following observations regarding the speculation of a US Airways (LCC)/AMR merger and acquisition (M&A):
Given M&A drumbeats over a LCC/AMR combination, we make a few observations:
1.We like the combination (assuming no overpayment);
2.Naturally, we haven't seen AMR's complete restructuring plan, but based on what we have seen, we're concluding AMR's growth of 20% over 5 years is enough to destabilize industry pricing (e.g. capacity drives pricing; and growth + highly unstable & presumably higher fuel prices = toxic combination).
3.M&A in Ch. 11 is preferable to M&A outside of Ch. 11.
4.A merger could provide LCC a path to resolving the seniority dispute b/w its East & West pilots (e.g. the divisive Nicalau award was predicated on a single collective bargaining agreement between the East / West pilots at LCC; if LCC merges with another airline, we presume a new collective bargaining agreement would be negotiated among the 3 pilot groups).
5.Many LCC pilots are set to retire, a factor that could also smooth seniority integration. Some quick facts: about 2/3rds of LCC's pilots are East (former US Airways); 1/3 West (former America West); in 6 years, about 755 (or 34%) of the East + West pilots retire; & about 1800 (or 55%) of LCC's pilots retire over 10 years.
Note: a change of control provision in the pilots contract is a separate issue for LCC management.
Analysts on AMR's Business Plan and Mergers
Since management has provided more details on their "business plan," several airline analysts have provided investors their thoughts on AMR's plan and its revenue and network deficiencies. They also commented on merger speculation. The following are excerpts from their commentary:
Hunter Keay, Wolfe Trahan:
•"We think AMR believes high costs and restrictive labor contracts were and are the main drivers of, if not the only reasons for, its revenue deficiency. We believe differently."
•"The cost/labor argument as a facilitator of a revenue deficit was probably true when AMR competed for price sensitive customers against low cost carriers but less true when AMR competed for corporate contracts against other network carriers with more powerful networks."
•"Given that AMR is apparently intent on winning back large corporate customers predominately by restructuring labor contracts but operating a network that closely resembles the network that it had entering bankruptcy we see a low probability of success."
•"We continue to believe that AMR has a low likelihood of emerging from bankruptcy as a viable standalone airline."
•"Network connectivity often drives a convenience premium, in our view, particularly with travelers willing to pay more for non-stop or one-stop service to international destinations - and AMR's strategy still appears focused on targeting high-yielding travelers. Low costs matter more for price-sensitive customers, in our opinion, but network scale matters more for corporate customers."
•"We don't see the standalone plan as sustainable in the long term if AMR's network resembles what it was prior to its restructuring -- and that appears to be the strategy."
Helane Becker, Dahlman Rose:
•"Given the current environment for the airlines, we believe further consolidation is likely."
•"We continue to believe it may be difficult for American Airlines to emerge from Chapter 11 as an independent, standalone company."
•"American's cornerstone strategy (focusing on New York JFK, Miami, Chicago, Dallas/Ft. Worth, and Los Angeles) has not worked for the past five years, and frankly, we do not see how it works going forward."
•"While American is the industry leader in Latin and South America, it has a limited route network in Asia Pacific, and that cannot be solved solely through joint ventures with Qantas, Cathay Pacific, and Japan Airlines."
Helane Becker really should check her facts.
AA announced the cornerstone strategy (focusing on flights to/from NYC, ORD, DFW, LAX and MIA and eliminating most non-hub point to point routes) about 30 months ago, in September, 2009, not "for the past five years." Oddly enough, AA has increased its revenue quite nicely since September, 2009 with the new Cornerstone strategy. What hasn't been working are labor costs and the inability to fly anywhere near as many 70-90 seaters as UAL and DAL are permitted by their pilot agreements.
Yes, AA has no Asian hub, but it has joint ventures in place with QF and JAL, two of the best carriers in their respective regions. Additionally, extensive codeshares with CX help fill in the gaps. AA has 10 77Ws on order for delivery starting later this year, which should enable more long-haul Asian flights to places like ICN and more China frequencies.
The bottom line is this: a combination with US would add nothing in Asia. Zero. Nada. Not a damn thing. Sure, a huge connecting hub at CLT and a decent international gateway at PHL, a stone's throw from NYC. Oh, and the remaining slots at LGA that Parker didn't give away to Delta. And a bunch of slots at DCA. Yea!! Plus a connecting hub at PHX.
If reducing costs substantially and modifying the pilot scope provisions aren't enough to compete against UA or DL, then it's game over, because combining AA and the dysfunctional US won't solve the AA weaknesses.
I think the point the analyst was trying to make is AA has been focusing on those five cities for many years, not just since 9/2009.
And, US is not dysfunctional. The pilot dispute is between two pilot groups who don't see eye to eye on seniority integration; there is little the "company" can do to resolve this at this point -- it's a union matter. The rest of the airline is actually running quite well, and their strategy of focusing on their core strengths (PHL, DCA, CLT, PHX) and streamlining the flight (will finally be all narrowbody Airbus in a few years, with the exception of the E190s) makes them an attractive merger partner.
