US Airways offer for Delta now $8.867 billion

Absolutely, Non Rev. And LCC stock is prone to bigger movements than most other network carriers (at least those not in BK) to external factors that drive daily fluctuations.

That's why it's foolish to make much out of daily, much less pre-market trading patterns. As you saw yesterday, the pre-market rise reversed itself during regular market hours.

Jim
 
(USA320Pilot)

"Today’s price action saw the stock price decline on lower than average volume, which is an indication there were not a lot of buyers".

Is it possible the increase in oil prices and OPEC's announcement of production cuts in Feb had anything to do with the drop in stock price?

Hmmmmm

-----------------------------------------------------------

Dec 14 4:04pm ET †
MARKET
CLOSE 57.08 -2.17 / -3.66%

Dec 14 4:01pm ET †
Open: 58.69 Volume: 4,266,000
High: 59.00 Volume Avg: 2,147,700

Thats a mighty steep drop for one day. And the volume was double that of a normal day. Can we therefore assume, based on your earlier comments, that there are a lot more sellers than buyers??? Or do they know something we don't?

Hmmmmm
 
  • Thread Starter
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  • #49
BoeingBoy:

As I indicated above, “I started this topic to indicate the value of the offer had changed due to pre-market electronic trading. If the price of US Airways’ security goes up the proposed merger offer goes up and if the security goes down the proposed offer goes down.â€

A one-day price or after/pre-market price move was used as an illustration, but instead you try to twist the information, which is exactly my point about trying to twist information. Finally, my technical analysis comments about volume showing sentiment are true. Volume supports the move. Yesterday when I glanced at a stock table the volume was trading at about 600,000 shares with an average volume of about $2 million shares per day, for the time period used, which was my point. Non-Rev’s point that “Is it possible the increase in oil prices and OPEC's announcement of production cuts in Feb had anything to do with the drop in stock price?†is accurate, but again some of the comments above are part of the “twisting†that BoeingBoy and other people who support ALPA’s RC4 or what some people call ALPA’s “darksidersâ€.

What I do not like are people who are a chameleon and two-faced with one personality on a private message board and another personality on a public message board. It’s just plain wrong to misrepresent or twist information.

We all know BoeingBoy does a lot of research and he most likely saw an article like the one hyperlinked below:

See Story

However, why did he not comment on the affect of this fundamental change, which affected the entire industry? Because he feels it is better to twist information to try to discredit an individual and that is more important than having mature discussion.

In fact, if a person purposely leaves out key information from a discussion is that not a form of misrepresentation (By the way, that is a common trait of ALPA's RC4 and one reason why they have often been confused of misrepresentation by two MEC chairman's and the communication committee chairman)?

BoeingBoy, let me make this a little more clear. The column of the article above is "AIRLINE STOCKS - Sector slumps with oil above $62 a barrel." Can you tell us how that may be germane to the discussion? Furthermore, how would this issue affect US Airways' offer to acquire Delta, either on a daily, weekly, or monthly timeframe?

Walmartgreeter:

Walmartgreeter said: “"When," you ask? You could not even garner (don't you love that word!) enough votes, in one of the smallest bases in the airline, to carry the votes of U pilots to the MEC. Copilots and F/As avoid you like the plague, and you make fun of one our most loyal, newly retired pilots by questioning HIS comments on this board.â€

USA320Pilot comments: That’s an interesting comment, coming from a man who won an ALPA election in a small Western PA base because he ran unopposed and nobody else had an interest. In addition, how long did you have to have hold two different LEC positions because nobody cared enough to volunteer to help in your base? How aobut tha for apathy that nobody cares to have leaders in their base?

Walmartgreeter, what’s interesting is that you always try to bring up an identity first and then wine about it when the same thing happens to you? Hypocritical?

As a member of the RC4 your true union member attitude got us into a position to now have to fight for the AWA contract, which was offered to ALPA at the beginning of bankruptcy II and was rejected by the RC4's hand picked NC and then the MEC. Brilliant. Who was in control of the MEC at the time and made that decision against the advice of every ALPA financial and legal advisor? If this was not so sad because it hurt so many people it would be laughable.

Finally, the damage that people like BoeingBoy and Walmartgreeter have done to this pilot group during LOA 93 discussions by supporting and then being a part of ALPA’s RC4 is well documented. Moreover, to make a comment that “That's why it's foolish to make much out of daily, much less pre-market trading patterns†is foolish when the point to start this topic was an illustration to simply point out when the security price goes up the proposed merger offer price goes up and when the security goes down the merger offer price goes down.

By the way, interestingly today the merger offer price is higher than when it was made on November 15, even with energy prices dramatically higher. BoeingBoy, since you regularly do not answer my questions, let me ask you one again. Can you tell us why the merger offer has more value today than on November 15?

Best regards,

USA320Pilot
 
USA320Pilot said:
What I do not like blah-blah-blah. . .

In fact, if a person purposely leaves out key information from a discussion is that not a form of misrepresentation (By the way, that is a common trait of ALPA's RC4 and one reason :wacko: why they have often been confused of misrepresentation :wacko: by two MEC chairman's[sic] and the communication committee chairman)?

Blah-blah-blah, ad infinitum. . .
Click to expand...

Perhaps it does escape your intellectual range, but most people here aren't interested in what you don't like.

Regarding the chameleon/misrepresentation/twisting: There are enough :wacko: quotes and instances on various boards, historically, that were someone honestly in possession of a conscious, they would be perpertually ashamed of themselves.

What a piece of work.
 
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  • #56
700UW quoted USA320Pilot from months-and-months ago (not in the recent comments, which I believe is another form of misrepresentation): "BoeingBoy, I'm not going to continue with "mud slinging", emotional comments, or to try and discredit the messenger. If you choose to do so, so be it."

USA320Pilot comments: With all due repsect, I do not believe indicating that a person is a chamelon (with two different demeanors on two different websites), is politcally aligned with the dysfunctional ALPA RC4, or misrepresents information is mud slinging. In my opinion, my comments were not insults and the information I presented was done in a respectful manner. If I wanted to be inflammatory, disrepsectful, or lack decorum I could have used the word "liar".

BoeingBoy said: "I rest my case..."

USA320Pilot comments: Me too.

USA320Pilot adds: The point of this topic was to illustrate how US Airways' stock price may or may not influence Delta, the company's creditors committee, and the bankruptcy court to either reject or accept US Airways' merger offer. For example, today in early morning intraday trading US Airways' security jumped over 2% to $58.40 per share, which increased the merger offer stock price by $7.47 per share since the November 14 closing price.

US Airways offer provides Delta's unsecured claimholders 78.5 million shares and at the price indicated above would increase the November 15, 2006 offer by over $586 million, if my math is correct.

My point: If the security goes up it will place more pressure on Delta's Board to accept the offer because the value of US AIrways' offer will increase.

Best regards,

USA320Pilot
 
USA320Pilot said:
700UW quoted USA320Pilot from months-and-months ago (not in the recent comments, which I believe is another form of misrepresentation): "BoeingBoy, I'm not going to continue with "mud slinging", emotional comments, or to try and discredit the messenger. If you choose to do so, so be it."

USA320Pilot comments: With all due repsect, I do not believe indicating that a person is a chamelon (with two different demeanors on two different websites), is politcally aligned with the dysfunctional ALPA RC4, or misrepresents information is mud slinging. In my opinion, my comments were not insults and the information I presented was done in a respectful manner. If I wanted to be inflammatory, disrepsectful, or lack decorum I could have used the word "liar".

BoeingBoy said: "I rest my case..."

USA320Pilot comments: Me too.

USA320Pilot adds: The point of this topic was to illustrate how US Airways' stock price may or may not influence Delta, the company's creditors committee, and the bankruptcy court to either reject or accept US Airways' merger offer. For example, today in early morning intraday trading US Airways' security jumped over 2% to $58.40 per share, which increased the merger offer stock price by $7.47 per share since the November 14 closing price.

US Airways offer provides Delta's unsecured claimholders 78.5 million shares and at the price indicated above would increase the November 15, 2006 offer by over $586 million, if my math is correct.

My point: If the security goes up it will place more pressure on Delta's Board to accept the offer because the value of US AIrways' offer will increase.
And if the security goes down?
Best regards,

USA320Pilot
Click to expand...
It "jumped", but where did it close? Doogie Parker is just issuing paper on this transaction to eliminate a competitor that is going to be a significant player upon exit from BK. DAL has close to $4 B in cash on hand and is nowhere nearly in as much "trouble" as you say. Lastly, if the security continues to go down, the value of the offer is dropping.
 
dalad said:
It "jumped", but where did it close?
Click to expand...
After posting the day's high of $58.40 at 9:47 this morning, the stock drifted lower to close at $56.50 (down $0.58). The intraday low was $56.38.

Since the announcement of the merger proposal and the immediate run-up in LCC share prices, the value of the offer has been as high as over $9 Billion ($63.27/share intraday on 11/24) and as low as $8.3 Billion ($55.30/share intraday on 12/1).

As something of an aside, here's why these daily share price fluctuations make little/no difference in the long run - using the last US bankruptcy as an example...

Approximately $40 Billion worth of claims were filed against one or more of the debtors in the US case. Of those, almost 3/4 (about $28 Billion) were the subject of motions by US to dismiss the claim - about 10 of these "Omnibus" motions in all. All but one of those "Omnibus" motions are still the subject of hearings before the BK judge. This does not include claims that were settled by agreement between the creditor and US during and after BK. For comparison, DL and it's divisions have had about $84 Billion in claims files, so using the same ratio about $60 Billion can possibly be thrown out.

So, over a year after exiting bankruptcy, the holders of approximately $28 Billion in claims against US or one of it's divisions still don't know if they will share in the distribution to unsecured creditors or get nothing. Do they care what the price of HP stock was a few weeks after the US/HP merger was announced?

At the end of the day, the unsecured creditors will have to predict (another way of saying "guess") which offer will be the most rewarding - the US offer with the uncertainty of when and how much stock they'll get and how much it will then be worth, or the DL offer with the same unknowns. The price at 9:47 this morning means little if anything.

Jim
 
BoeingBoy said:
After posting the day's high of $58.40 at 9:47 this morning, the stock drifted lower to close at $56.50 (down $0.58). The intraday low was $56.38.

Since the announcement of the merger proposal and the immediate run-up in LCC share prices, the value of the offer has been as high as over $9 Billion ($63.27/share intraday on 11/24) and as low as $8.3 Billion ($55.30/share intraday on 12/1).

As something of an aside, here's why these daily share price fluctuations make little/no difference in the long run - using the last US bankruptcy as an example...

Approximately $40 Billion worth of claims were filed against one or more of the debtors in the US case. Of those, almost 3/4 (about $28 Billion) were the subject of motions by US to dismiss the claim - about 10 of these "Omnibus" motions in all. All but one of those "Omnibus" motions are still the subject of hearings before the BK judge. This does not include claims that were settled by agreement between the creditor and US during and after BK. For comparison, DL and it's divisions have had about $84 Billion in claims files, so using the same ratio about $60 Billion can possibly be thrown out.

So, over a year after exiting bankruptcy, the holders of approximately $28 Billion in claims against US or one of it's divisions still don't know if they will share in the distribution to unsecured creditors or get nothing. Do they care what the price of HP stock was a few weeks after the US/HP merger was announced?

At the end of the day, the unsecured creditors will have to predict (another way of saying "guess") which offer will be the most rewarding - the US offer with the uncertainty of when and how much stock they'll get and how much it will then be worth, or the DL offer with the same unknowns. The price at 9:47 this morning means little if anything.

Jim
Click to expand...
One more thing that needs to be noted is that this stock is drifting lower every day and not with a bullish finish. The stock is closing bearish every day which is not good from a technical standpoint.
 
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