US Airways Bullish on 2010

[ebwgs]

http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=18750

 

[BoeingBoy]

"Kirby was less hesitant, saying, "RASM will almost certainly turn positive in February and March and I think you'll see every month get better right through December.""

Barring anything happening to cause the economy to turn south again, he probably right.

However, what he didn't say is that it'll be almost entirely because of more a more favorable year over year comparison period due to the steep drop in RASM in 2009, not because RASM will be higher than it was before the drop began. You have to keep what was happening in the comparison period - by Feb/Mar 2010 the Feb/Mar 2009 drop in RASM was probably 20% or more compared to 2008. Being 10% above the 2009 RASM still means being 10% or more below 2008's RASM. What really matters is achieving a RASM that is profitable, not a favorable comparison to a terrible year.

Jim

 

[InternationalShannon]

ha ha ha, i read that as "Bullsh" like the other two letters are supposed to be implied missing. Then I realized it was a real story. US Airways Bullsh** on 2010 made more sense though. Just saying.

 

[freedom]

:angry:

No , 2010 will NOT be a good year for us airways , outside economic forces will hammer us down again , UNLESS the price of oil drops dramatically .

As you all know the unemployment rate for November dropped from 10.2 % to 10.0 % with only a net loss of 11k jobs , however if you look at real time reports for the shopping season you can see that consumers are spending even less than they did last year . I think we can expect December to look good as far as employment goes , but come January we will see massive layoffs as temporary workers are let go and inventories are adjusted , furthermore many companies big and small will reassess their chances of survival for the coming year and may end up declaring BK . The unemployment picture for the first several months of the new year will be skewed by the US governments hiring of census workers expected to total one million workers ( they will be hired in waves 100 k one month , 200k the next ect ) , but these workers are low paid and will not be flying anywhere soon .

Unemployment among young adults remains extremely high and with increased college tuition this will in turn affect that segment of the population that usually travels around the first half of the year .

Furthermore the local economy of PHX continues to deteriorate due to the housing crisis . The state finances of the Arizona government are maybe only second is severity of problems to California . This means local business will see reduced incomes and will cut their expenses .. (business travel etc )

so on and so forth , the picture for next year is very bleak ...

 

[does this plane go to paris]

that was phunny

 

[InternationalShannon]

:angry:

No , 2010 will NOT be a good year for us airways , outside economic forces will hammer us down again , UNLESS the price of oil drops dramatically .

As you all know the unemployment rate for November dropped from 10.2 % to 10.0 % with only a net loss of 11k jobs , however if you look at real time reports for the shopping season you can see that consumers are spending even less than they did last year . I think we can expect December to look good as far as employment goes , but come January we will see massive layoffs as temporary workers are let go and inventories are adjusted , furthermore many companies big and small will reassess their chances of survival for the coming year and may end up declaring BK . The unemployment picture for the first several months of the new year will be skewed by the US governments hiring of census workers expected to total one million workers ( they will be hired in waves 100 k one month , 200k the next ect ) , but these workers are low paid and will not be flying anywhere soon .

Unemployment among young adults remains extremely high and with increased college tuition this will in turn affect that segment of the population that usually travels around the first half of the year .

Furthermore the local economy of PHX continues to deteriorate due to the housing crisis . The state finances of the Arizona government are maybe only second is severity of problems to California . This means local business will see reduced incomes and will cut their expenses .. (business travel etc )

so on and so forth , the picture for next year is very bleak ...

....but good news!!! I JUST SAVED 15% BY SWITCHING TO GEICO!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Henderfuzz]

:angry:

No , 2010 will NOT be a good year for us airways , outside economic forces will hammer us down again , UNLESS the price of oil drops dramatically .

As you all know the unemployment rate for November dropped from 10.2 % to 10.0 % with only a net loss of 11k jobs , however if you look at real time reports for the shopping season you can see that consumers are spending even less than they did last year . I think we can expect December to look good as far as employment goes , but come January we will see massive layoffs as temporary workers are let go and inventories are adjusted , furthermore many companies big and small will reassess their chances of survival for the coming year and may end up declaring BK . The unemployment picture for the first several months of the new year will be skewed by the US governments hiring of census workers expected to total one million workers ( they will be hired in waves 100 k one month , 200k the next ect ) , but these workers are low paid and will not be flying anywhere soon .

Unemployment among young adults remains extremely high and with increased college tuition this will in turn affect that segment of the population that usually travels around the first half of the year .

Furthermore the local economy of PHX continues to deteriorate due to the housing crisis . The state finances of the Arizona government are maybe only second is severity of problems to California . This means local business will see reduced incomes and will cut their expenses .. (business travel etc )

so on and so forth , the picture for next year is very bleak ...

Not to mention the diastrous healthcare bill going thru congress. That keeps small bussinsess from expanading and spending.
However the one we should all keep our eye on is that stupid Cap and Tax bill that will nearly double if not triple the cost of our business. Everyone in the transportation industry should call or write your congressman to make sure that they keep that from passing.
The bad thing of course is the EPA may just inpose some of the restrictions anyway without any vote out of congress.

 

[BoeingBoy]

I guess I owe Kirby an apology. I just read the Philly Inquirer article on the conference where Kirby made his remarks and it includes quotes from him that flesh out what was reported in the ATW article:

"We are going to bounce back pretty significantly in 2010. This is not bouncing back to normal levels, but 2009 was so bad that just an anemic recovery means we have a large year-over-year increase in revenue."

Jim

 

[Dog Wonder]

if you reread my old posts you'll see that 1.5 years ago i did allude to the fact that we could be facing economic diaster around 2009 ... it's in the old IAM posts , feel free to recheck ...

and i've only been crying the "sky is falling the sky is falling " for the last 6 months

As far as "this ship " what ship do you refer to , our company US AIRWAYS , or do you refer to THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA , because my friend , THAT'S the ship that's going down , and we're all on deck now ..

Disaster is right around the corner, no not that corner, the corner over there, well maybe next year, or the one after the one after that.

Maybe Kirby should be advised of these expert opinions before he goes out on a limb and says things will get better.

 

[CSA007]

Change is coming for US Airways!


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