US, AA merger could cost Charlotte

Personally I'd be more concerned about PHX, PHL and DCA. CLT is central enough on the east coast and gets better... has less airport stopping weather. PHL might survive because of the international flights, but that will depend on the new airlines strategy. Assuming of course the merger happens (and I think it will).
 
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US Airways renews lease at Philadelphia International Airport, eyes improvements ...........

http://www.bizjournals.com/philadelphia/news/2013/01/22/us-airways-renews-lease-at.html
 
I diverge from the topic of CLT..but PHL is going to be the most interesting play going forward, merger or not. Mayor Nutter says he is going to impose a $30+ head tax on every pax to pay for the new 1.1B dollar expansion. Heard Parker is already shopping the NE for other airports to hub domestic traffic, if that actually happens. UPS says they will not be "moved" to Essington, in fact they are threatening to leave entirely. Jed Clampett just hit shale gas on the PIT property, the papers here said last week they MIGHT use some of those funds to bring down the head tax. Sure would be nice to get a few more flights here.

Greeter

Hmmm....shale gas on PIT? This may well trump Delta's oil refinery.

I wonder if they can figure out how to make Rjs run on shale gas?
 
Since DFW is a larger hub than CLT, there is every reason to believe that DFW will become the primary east-west hub along the southern tier of the US. It is also true that CLT's island service will become less necessary - at least at the same levels - as what AA carries thru MIA. OTOH, PHL is a larger hub than what AA has at JFK and US has little true hub competition. The chances are much higher than any that a combined AA/US will favor PHL over JFK and will be able to grow the operation based on the alliance. PHL is ripe for Latin America growth in a merger as well as a flight or perhaps two to Asia. With TATL gateways at DFW, ORD, CLT, and PHL, AA/US would be overhubbed to Europe. As for the PHL airport, a 2 year lease extension is not a whole lot - but US knows full well that billions of dollars in improvements make the hub unworkable. PHL government officials know the choices for a NE hub for US or AA/US are not great so they can put the screws on US.... the drama won't stop anytime soon.
 
Since DFW is a larger hub than CLT, there is every reason to believe that DFW will become the primary east-west hub along the southern tier of the US. It is also true that CLT's island service will become less necessary - at least at the same levels - as what AA carries thru MIA. OTOH, PHL is a larger hub than what AA has at JFK and US has little true hub competition. The chances are much higher than any that a combined AA/US will favor PHL over JFK and will be able to grow the operation based on the alliance. PHL is ripe for Latin America growth in a merger as well as a flight or perhaps two to Asia. With TATL gateways at DFW, ORD, CLT, and PHL, AA/US would be overhubbed to Europe. As for the PHL airport, a 2 year lease extension is not a whole lot - but US knows full well that billions of dollars in improvements make the hub unworkable. PHL government officials know the choices for a NE hub for US or AA/US are not great so they can put the screws on US.... the drama won't stop anytime soon.

Yeah. PIT kept putting the screws to US and it is a freaking ghost town now. Even the mice and stray cats have moved out.
 
Nooooo! Its just what AA needs !

LOL!!!
As usual, you are off the mark. PHL is a very strong market for US, as well as a money maker. The Airport facility itself leaves much to be desired, but as I said a lack of real estate won't allow for a complete new airport. Other locations such as PIT,ATL,DFW,DEN, just to name a few were able to build a complete new airport with minimal impact on the operations of the existing one.
What's the deal with your little old LOL, did you pick that up from the kids? What's next, a bunch of smiley faces?
 
Since DFW is a larger hub than CLT, there is every reason to believe that DFW will become the primary east-west hub along the southern tier of the US. It is also true that CLT's island service will become less necessary - at least at the same levels - as what AA carries thru MIA. OTOH, PHL is a larger hub than what AA has at JFK and US has little true hub competition. The chances are much higher than any that a combined AA/US will favor PHL over JFK and will be able to grow the operation based on the alliance. PHL is ripe for Latin America growth in a merger as well as a flight or perhaps two to Asia. With TATL gateways at DFW, ORD, CLT, and PHL, AA/US would be overhubbed to Europe. As for the PHL airport, a 2 year lease extension is not a whole lot - but US knows full well that billions of dollars in improvements make the hub unworkable. PHL government officials know the choices for a NE hub for US or AA/US are not great so they can put the screws on US.... the drama won't stop anytime soon.
Most of this was covered in Parker's presentation. MIA and JFK are saturated. Expansion comes using CLT. JFK isn't workable for connections which makes PHL even more important. Out west, even after the merger, the new AA would be #3 in terms of market share, which makes reducing PHX substantially a bad idea.
 
MIA is running at 70% capacity. JFK has room to grow the terminal, north of gate 12 and was ultimately pared back post 9-11. With a few more slots, JFK works fine.
 
Yeah. PIT kept putting the screws to US and it is a freaking ghost town now. Even the mice and stray cats have moved out.
And now Delta is the largest carrier there.. Intl service and mainline jets to LGA, with a much higher cost structure.



Go figure.... ;)
 
Most of this was covered in Parker's presentation. MIA and JFK are saturated. Expansion comes using CLT. JFK isn't workable for connections which makes PHL even more important. Out west, even after the merger, the new AA would be #3 in terms of market share, which makes reducing PHX substantially a bad idea.

Much of Parker's presentation to you was an oversimplification, and some of it is just plane false.

MIA is far from saturated. Giant brand new terminal and no capacity management system (slots). Lots of room to grow international flights. Saying that MIA is saturated is a fabrication. If I were you, I'd demand better from your career-drunkard CEO. He pays you substandard wages - don't accept lies as well.

JFK is tight, but not saturated. For enough money, B6 will gladly sell some prime-time departure slots. AA has a new palatial terminal that's about 40% utilized at the moment. NYC has far more international demand than PHL or CLT (I'm not suggesting that PHL or CLT will lose their international flights - only that they won't grow at the expense of JFK). NYC is the #1 city for international O&D. With AA-US having a bigger share of NYC business than either one has now, JFK will see more international flights, mostly surviving on the larger O&D that the combined airline will have, supplemented by some feed from key cities. Not every backwater small town in North and South Carolina will have nonstops to JFK, but the larger cities will.

Ever notice all those US LGA-PHL flights? In the 3rd quarter, the DOT stats said that daily O&D between those airports was five (that's right - 5) passengers each way. So what has US been doing? Offering lower connecting fares to attract people to fly overseas from LGA via PHL. I doubt that a combined US-AA will do as much as that in the future.

PHX is a market where WN has a huge market share (US has no fortress hub position there unlike CLT or PHL) and quite a few of the US PHX passengers will no longer need to connect there; see my earlier examples of the hypothetical TUS-JAX passenger. AA already connects them at DFW and thus, there won't be as large a demand for TUS-PHX commuter feed. Same thing with several other PHX spokes.
 
........ For enough money, B6 will gladly sell some prime-time departure slots. PHX is a market where WN has a huge market share (US has no fortress hub position there unlike CLT or PHL).....
That's like saying "lets count on owning the Empire State Building, cause for ENOUGH money we can".
Under the AA-JB Commercial Agreement, JB already traded 12 Slots to AA. Why should JB sell more of their primary asset to the new AA and risk eroding their JFK-X services/yields, particurly JFK-BOS, with the potential that once the US network is added to AA's, the Agreement may vanish? As I speculated before, the new AA will likely consider optimizing both JFK and PHL to maximize JFK O&D yields, by using PHL as the primary domestic-international connecting point. This strategy should also place the new AA into a much better position than DL(JFK) and UA(EWR) , since both face stiff competition from international carriers - wheras at PHL it would be limited. Of course, this is just IMO.

PHL, unlike CLT, is not a Fortress Hub.

BTW, here is the DOT Trans-Atlantic Yields summary for 3Q 12 (High Season):
AA - 16.16 - 15.93 - 13.77 - 1.4%
DL - 14.78 - 12.93 - 14.07 - 14.3%
UA - 15.53 - 13.75- 14.41 - 12.9%
US - 16.07 - 13.39 - 13.26 - 20.0%
 
Yeah. PIT kept putting the screws to US and it is a freaking ghost town now. Even the mice and stray cats have moved out.

I can tell 'ya that's not the case. We have more stray cats and mice than ever before. In fact, there have even been reported sightings of a fox or coyote, not sure how the rumor goes, roaming around on the closed end of "B".

Plus, with so many unused jetways out the 100 or so here, the starlings have found that old USAirways jetways make excellent places to raise brood after brood. Kinda' like our own little aviary in the summer.
 

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