Mrfish3726:
United's business plan indicates a fuel price equivalent to Crude Oil prices of $50 per barrel, about $14 less than today's price. If my memory serves me correctly, each $1 increase in the price of oil per barrel increases United's fuel expense by $5 million per month or $60 million per year.
Thus, United must convince its creditors, bankruptcy trustee, and the court that it can account for $840 million in energy price difference at today's prices or oil prices can be managed that will produce a profit.
In regard to an asset sale, which is permitted by both ALPA contracts, a United divestiture of TED would permit the two companies to execute a "fragmentation" and code share the flying. United would continue to receive incremental code share revenue and could lower some of its costs/domestic exposure, while it focuses on its international operation. If United is forced to sell assets, which has been discussed with US Airways before and code named "Porject Minnow", the only way United could still code share that flying is to sell the assets to the new US Airways.
Another reason the deal may proceed is that you can only sell what another airline desires to buy and the acquiring company must have access to capital, which is something the new US Airways has demonstrated.
Regardless, I can tell you this. The US Airways/America West ALPA MECs and their advisors believe there will be further industry consolidation and the new company could participate in further M&A activity in the not-to-distant future. There are many options, which by the way, could have Frontier become part of the new US Airways.
It will be interesting watching things unfold in the next few months.
Regards,
USA320Pilot