UAL's investors say: 'Show me'

[whlinder]

Uh...why don't you reread his and everyone else's posts.

All he did was post the article...no comment anywhere. All anyone else has done is attack the messenger.

Maybe you should re-read my post. I simply said we should ignore him and discuss the article.

 

[Borescope]

Oh puh-leazze! Consider the source.

The "source" being The Wall Street Journal.

You can take anything your read in ANY paper as being slanted one way or another. That's what they're in the business for...........to sell papers.

I would venture to guess that you wouldn't have gotten your panties in a wad had anyone else posted the same article here other than USA320pilot. He was just the poster, if you have a problem with the article send a letter to the editor at the WSJ.

 

[Bulscu]

The "source" being The Wall Street Journal.

Here's a little 'Razzle-Dazzle...'










..The truth is incontrovertible, malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end; there it is.

Winston Churchill Quote

 

[spacewaitress]

Oh puh-leazze! Consider the source.

The Wall Street Journal? That's all I read.

Maybe YOU should reread Cosmo's post. He did, in fact, make a number of comments.

Right on, he did. Sorry Cosmo.

 

[767jetz]

The airline's disappointing first-quarter results, its high unit costs and its middle-of-the-pack revenue performance seemed to stifle earlier enthusiasm.

Some think its strategy of offering a variety of services - from premium to budget - at a time when competitors are streamlining their operations is costly and flawed.

But will it be enough? Two weeks ago, the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial saw the company earning just five cents a share in the second quarter. Now the average earnings forecast is up to 46 cents a share. Prospects for the third quarter, seasonally UAL's best period, are better.

Well the preliminary estimates for Q2 are out. See the reports
here and

here.

Some particularly interesting quotes:

"Excluding a severance charge of $22 million, earnings are expected to be $141 million."

"The better-than-anticipated results come despite higher fuel costs that have hampered the airline industry."
(767jetz comments: But I thought UA's plan was flawed due to unrealistic fuel price assumtions? -sarcasm-)

"We expect to report results that exceed current second quarter consensus expectations because of the continuing benefits of our restructuring, strong revenue growth, and our cost control efforts,"
(767jetz comment: What's this?? Analysts were wrong again? How can that be?)

"The company has 28% of its fuel consumption hedged for the third quarter of 2006 at an average price of $1.66 per gallon, excluding taxes"

"Cash and short-term investments at the end of the second quarter are estimated at $5.1 billion, of which $0.9 billion is restricted, representing a total increase of $500 million from the end of the first quarter 2006."
(767jetz comments: Well, half a BILLION bucks improvement doesn't sound as gloomy as some predicted, does it?)

"for the second quarter ended June 30, 2006 indicate that basic earnings per share are expected to be approximately $1.01 and diluted earnings per share $0.93."
(767jetz comments: Hmmmmm... analysts predict zero to 46 cents, and UA achieves over double. How can that be? I thought these analysts were always right. - sarcasm-)

 

[magsau]

USA320,

Certainly hope that the UAL results answer the questions the analyst had. Also, I hope that you now take the information to your sources and let us know exactly what is happening within OUR company. I am sure your outsiders know more than anyone else.

Also, we all know you quit UAL after being hired as a 570. In case you don't have friends at UAL that will fill you in..... The 570 are now flying the 400 and 777 as Captains. Not sure where you fell in that group so it would affect whether or not you would be line holder or reserve. How close are you to holding Captain on the 330 at LCC?

 

[USA320Pilot]

Magsau:

I’m happy to see United exceed analyst expectations and the company is profitable. It’s been a long time coming and helps make employee sacrifices more palatable.

We at US Airways are feeling good too. For example, JP Morgan airline analyst Jamie Baker is predicting a $285 to $330 million quarterly profit for our company, but there are “whispers†emitting from Wall Street the Tempe-base airline could exceed airline analysts as well.

Meanwhile, thanks for asking about my career options.

I’m happy that the 570 are doing well after all they sacrificed. In regard to personal company comparisons let’s look at a couple of facts:

- I upgraded to Captain at US Airways in four year’s and it took my United colleagues over 8 year’s to upgrade.

- United pilots took a 25% pay cut for the ESOP and then had their investment whipped out. At US Airways pilot’s took a pay cut in the early 90’s, which was paid back a twice the concession plus stock options.

- At US Airways I spent two week’s on reserve until I upgraded to Captain and I have spent 4 year’s on reserve and 17 as a lineholder. At United I would have been a reserve longer. Because I was a lineholder more at US Airways than at United I was able to participate more with the Air Force Reserve earning more money and boosting my retirement than if I had been at United.

Interestingly, four year’s ago a 570 friend of mine and I did an income comparison and at that point I had earned $512,000 more at US Airways than if I had been at United. What’s even more “eye opening†was the difference in portfolio’s because of me being a Captain longer, not being a reserve as long and getting full month pay more often, my higher Air Force income, and not sustaining the huge pay cut due to United’s ESOP. In the past few year’s the total airline income disparity is closing, but due to 401(k), IRA, stock/mutual fund/bond, and real estate investments, which rode the wave of the markets climb, he will likely never surpass my total portfolio market value when we retire.

In the end either airline would have been a good option, but at US Airways I will have created more wealth than if I had stayed at United.

Best regards,

USA320Pilot

 

[magsau]

USA,

Being a lineholder or reserve does not affect ones ability to work in the AF Reserves.

Also, should you not snapshot and entire career versus the segment you chose to highlight? If the 570 is a 400 captain for many more years than you are a bus Capt/F/O would not the difference not take a turn in the opposite direction? Not like either company is building A-fund contributions but we do get 15% b/c funds.

You like to walk over to the UAL forum, that you also claim to never read or post, and copy a negative article because it somehow fuels your grudge. Hopefully the UA release and the factual reports will once again show your predictions and hopes for UAL demise as unwarranted.

 

[USA320Pilot]

Magsau:

I said I rarely post on the United forum, but I did not say I "never" post on the forum.

The WSJ does not post their columns on-line for free. I have access to the WSJ and I thought the article would be of interest to United message board readers.

I regard to my career, you brought it up not me and you first spoke of the "specific" part of a career, not me.

As far as the reserves I could fly work the Air Force the same day I flew a trip with US Airways, but you cannot do that on reserve with your or any other company. This enabled me to have the highest "participation rate and days paid" for my military work out of any officer in my squadron.

The big difference on why I will earn more at US Airways than United because I made about $50,000 more per year at US Airways than United for about 10 year's. The money was invested and compounded and I will always be ahead of my 570 friends, since you brought it up.

My interest in United has nothing to do except how it effects US Airways, just like your interest in US Airways is likely only how it effects United.

I told the US Airways MEC on March 3, 2000 in Special Session that there would be a merger with United announced shortly and it happened. I first publicly spoke about the UCT on this message board and David Bronner's/RSI's interest in buying United assists before Bronner spoke with Ted Reed and the Charlotte Observer on I believe February 7, 2003 and confirmed my report.

Then on two separate occasions the news media spoke of the United - US Airways corporate transaction code worded "Project Minnow" (ICT) where the news media said US Airways was going to acquire United.

I certainly understand how a discussion of a fragmentation of a company can affect the psychology of an airline pilot, but that does not mean I had any "special interest" or agenda other than how it would affect my company. Is that unusual? No, of course not.

I am no different than you and I do not have ESP. What I have done is made a lot of industry contacts on Wall Street, in the News Media, ALPA/other union leaders, and management personnel at all levels. I obtain information, connect the dots, and then try to analyze US Airways' direction – no more, no less.

I have no ill feeling towards United, its great employees, and I do not wish to work there. I work for a company that has become the "darling" of Wall Street, which is expected to post a second quarter income of about $300 million. The airline will have one of the highest earnings of any airline in the entire world.

This will undoubtedly help my profit sharing check and with the joint contract around the corner and the AWA pilots earning about %13 more than the US Airways pilots on January 1, 2007, I'm looking forward to getting our JNC work done, obtaining a combined contract, and getting a significant pay raise.

Finally, I wish you, every United employee, and everyone interested in the success of the business enterprise the best.

Best regards,

USA320Pilot

 

[boeing787]

The darling of what???? UM if there was a darling it would be LUV...right now not your LCC. You obviously have mental problems and I feel so sorry for you. Whether your a captain or 25 year FO either for real or a flight sim 2004 player please seek some help. You know there are EAP's out there for someone who is as out of touch as you. Thank you and I don't wish ill will on the AWA pilots but if you look at the past of USAIR pilots you will note how many airlines they destroyed such as PSA, PIEDMONT, and now they have got their fangs into AWA. It's such a crime.

 

[ClueByFour]

This will undoubtedly help my profit sharing check and with the joint contract around the corner and the AWA pilots earning about %13 more than the US Airways pilots on January 1, 2007, I'm looking forward to getting our JNC work done, obtaining a combined contract, and getting a significant pay raise.

Given that Doug Parker has already stated that the company will accept nothing less than zero-cost contract differences, I'd say you are going to be waiting quite some time for that pay raise. Until what, 2009 or thereabouts?

 

[USA320Pilot]

ClueByFour:

Like many people you only look at pay as a means to evaluate labor expense. Parker's comment's are true, but he has publicly said the US Airways pilots can have the America West contract at any time.

The two pilot contracts have about the same cost to the airline, but to get the new payrates the US Airways pilots may lose some items such as a reduction in sick time, 5 minutes per day vacation pay, the 75-hour option, and go to the America West monthly pay cap, etc.

None of these type of eschanges will effect me much.

What's important is the only way Parker can get the total revenue and cost merger synergies is to combine workforces, which will likely happen in the middle of 2007 after the joint "operating certificate" is issued by the FAA.

Later this year US Airways' employees will gain leverage and the America West pilot's will not take a pay cut, thus, most observer's expect a deal early in 2007, which will boost pilot pay at the pre-merger US Airways.

This will be good for all airline workers as employees begin to reverse the trend of concession contracts.

Best regards,

USA320Pilot

 

[TheLarkAscending]

Magsau:
I said I rarely post on the United forum, but I did not say I "never" post on the forum.

You absolutely know why this becomes an issue, :wacko:

History Lesson: Here Line #9 beginning: "Why don't we make a pact..."

Here. Line #1: "I have no interest in posting on the UA message board..."

Subsequent Results

 

[hp_fa]

Later this year US Airways' employees will gain leverage and the America West pilot's will not take a pay cut, thus, most observer's expect a deal early in 2007, which will boost pilot pay at the pre-merger US Airways.

Who exactly are "most observer's" (sic) and why are you wandering away from those who love you at the LCC message board?

Oh, I forgot, you don't bother to read most posts.

 

[Bulscu]

Who exactly are "most observer's" (sic) and why are you wandering away from those who love you at the LCC message board?

Oh, I forgot, you don't bother to read most posts.

Here's the thing, this is, the 'powers to be', first merger attempt.us/hp It has not only added value, it's allowed more control over industry capacity/ticket prices. Once the other, and then the rest of the mergers take place, it'll allow for more and more control over capacity/ticket prices. In those days, contracts will be opened and adjustments will be made, or at least it wouldn't surprise. Of course that is if'n there are more mergers, and if'n the industry consolidates to the point of real control. I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see usair open their contracts sooner, I'm thinking they've done a pretty good job at what here to fore was considered unworkable..\

..of course and as always, this is just one more 'stupid ass opinon', cause I sure as hell don't know noth'n.