The Golden Rule

[vaccumtube]

The harsh reality is that those who control the gold RULE.It will not be Tom Horton or Doug Parker who determines whether or not a AA-USAIR merger happens during C11 but the creditors.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-03/goldman-sachs-may-play-pivotal-role-in-american-s-fate.html

 

[Hopeful]

Here's other possible events that haven't been discussed.

-------If, either through consensus or abrogation, AA gets the cost cutting agreements it seeks, they can then give more favorable terms to the creditors.... Thus gaining their support AGAINST a US deal.

-------The creditor's committee pressures the judge to allow a US offer sooner rather than later...

-------If neither of the above, Delta and UA/CO and US want in on the action and AA becomes a fire sale giving the creditors the best deal. AA is then piecemealed out for routes only SANS the employees.

 

[Mach85ER]

"The harsh reality is that those who control the gold RULE."

If that were always true, the eastern part of today's US would be part of the commonwealth, and the center west would probably be in the EU or long since nuked because it was french.

 

[eolesen]

AA becomes a fire sale giving the creditors the best deal. AA is then piecemealed out for routes only SANS the employees.

There's another possibility that hasn't been mentioned much, Hopeful... You guys have long been worried about being owned by BA. Maybe it's time to start wondering about being owned by a sheik.

Your fire sale has probably a < 5% possibility, mainly because parting out AA would probably not yield as much as it did for Pan Am or Eastern.

Routes themselves have no value. Most international airport employees work thru ground handling companies. With all of the open skies treaties signed in the past 20 years, any airline can pretty much fly anywhere if they want, with few exceptions. There might be a few slots that could be sold, and AA has a few owned airplanes that might have some value. But the rest would be dispersed.

There are really just two non-employee assets AA has right now that have any meaningful value right now -- AAdvantage, and the JV's with oneworld partners. DL and UA know that there's no way the JV's would survive a transfer of ownership to either of them, and just about everyone of any value who belongs to AAdvantage also belongs to SkyMiles or MileagePlus.

But those two non-employee assets do hold value once you look outside of DL and UA. I've pondered whether or not WN would take a quantum leap and invest in AA, and the news this week that Emirates was considering investment in the US and India could also be a possibility. They don't care about being limited to a 25% control status if it would solidify their footprint.

 

[vaccumtube]

"The harsh reality is that those who control the gold RULE."

If that were always true, the eastern part of today's US would be part of the commonwealth, and the center west would probably be in the EU or long since nuked because it was french.

The rich ALWAYS rule over the poor and the borrower is ALWAYS servant to the lender. The Gold may have changed hands several times throughout history but those in possession of it have the real power over everyone else.The people who control the world's oil supplies rule over those who must buy it from them.The Federal Reserve rules over the U.S Taxpayer because they can print up money anytime they wish and have the politicians put the taxpayer in debt for it.
Back to the real topic at hand: The BIG MONEY PLAYERS are the ones who are going to determine the outcome of AA in C11 and that is not Tom Horton or Doug Parker.If the BIG MONEY PLAYERS like the US AIR merger plan then it will be a done deal unless someone else presents an even better plan for the BIG MONEY PEOPLE.In the end they [BMP] will have the final say.

 

[Mach85ER]

E.

I've been convinced for several years that that's the ultimate endgame. I don't care much about being owned and working for BA/IB through IAG, they're just another mindless corporation without any regards to borders like any other. What I am convinced of is the pressure to eliminate the foreign ownership rules.

I can see how well that plan is going to work out. Dealing with corporate hacks and attorney's using the RLA to their advantage to beat us in the ground is one thing, having a pedophile Islamic Dictator using the US goverment to hammer us at leisure will end up badly.