Southwest Purchase of Airtran and US/DL Slot Swap

[Travelpro72]

Won't the possibility of AA and B6 getting cozy cause a bit of a problem with Lufthansa invested in B6? I think a combo of US and B6 makes sense. Fleet is common, US is in Star with Lufthansa invested in B6. US would have a very big presence merged with B6 in JFK which coupled with Lufthansa and other Star carriers could really kick some butt. It would create a much larger domestic carrier though overlap would occur, still creating a larger domestic feed for all international out of JFK, CLT and PHL. The more customers you fly around domestically only helps boost the amount you'll carry internationally. Man I wish this were to pan out.

 

[signals]

There are a ton of variables in the equation.
How many flights can WN add
What cities do they pick
Are the high yielding fliers willing to give up their status and * alliance benefits to go to WN

WN can't compete with the number of non-stop destinations, nor can they immediately add a significant frequency to more than a handful of cities. The impact on the overall bottom line will be minimal until they are able to acquire more gates.

Seriously? I may not know much about the airline industry but let me give you a fictional scenario...

The equation is simple and there are only 2 variables.
1. WN goes after US and must compete with them on their most profitable routes that LUV now flies to. I predict WN will LS on this one because US profits from its other routes out of Charlotte.

but..

2. WN goes after other low cost carriers out of Charlotte. Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't Republic fly out of Charlotte and it codeshares with US??? I believe that WN has a bone to pick with Republic over the F9 deal. Anyway, if LUV goes after other carriers and drives them out, when the gates become available WN steps in! I have seen US give up gates in my area and B6 now resides there.

Once it has more gates it can go toe-to-toe with US and beyond.

But what do I know?

 

[Travelpro72]

WN couldn't go after Republic in CLT as they are a contract carrier for US. Republic couldn't care less about WN moving into CLT.

 

[Richard]

As this has veered a little off topic, we're going to close it. Discuss the slot swap and approval issues ONLY in the new thread.