My ONLY concern/curiousity about WN, is when the fuel hedge(s) runs out.
The way I figure, as the really lucrative hedges expire and are replaced with fuel at closer to market price, WN is still in the drivers' seat.
Soon it will have over 500 737s, and more than 300 of those will be fuel-efficient 737-700s. AA, on the other hand, still has about 300 less efficient MD-80s. Those 737-700s are about 25% more fuel efficient than AA's MD-80s.
Oh, and on top of that, WN will have over 500 airplanes and almost zero debt. You can buy a lot of fuel at market prices when you don't pay anyone any interest on billions of debt.
Those 500 737s still fly primarily short hauls, with relatively high yields, even at WN's non-gouging prices.
Some people like to claim that WN has squandered its fuel hedge savings by undercutting competitors and that with higher fuel prices, it will suffer. To that, I say "nonsense." WN has always undercut its competitors when undercutting them made sense. The fuel hedge savings helped WN buy those hundreds of brand new 737-700s for
cash just as AA's daunting MD-80 replacement project is looming.
So one of these days, WN will buy fuel for market prices. But for a long time, it will buy a lot less fuel per 137 seats than AA will. Same with all the other legacies that need to buy new fuel efficient airplanes. Add to that the legendary vague "efficiency" at WN - it flies more ASMs with fewer employees at higher wages than most other airlines. Its management seems to know how to make money when others can't.
I don't fly WN a lot, but nothing beats BUR-LAS/SJC/PHX/ABQ both on price and convenience. Saves me from driving all the way to LAX and flying in a 50 seat lawn dart Eagle RJ to SJC. AA doesn't fly from LAX to places like PHX or ABQ. High frequency and low fares. I get enough AAdvantage miles/status from long flights where upgrades make a difference, so one-hour flights across the southwest on southwest doesn't cause me to miss out on status qualification. You won't find me on 4-stop WN transcons.
To be certain, the expiration of the ultra-cheap hedging contracts will make things a little more challenging for the WN team. So instead of running on a level playing field, WN will now have a 2% grade to climb. All while the competiton is trying to run the same distance on the same 12% incline it's been on since 1978. I predict another 35 profitable years. B)