American didnt "beat" earnings they lost less then expected. Little bit of a differnce in terminology there.
New early out offer coming?
- Thread starter keepourpensions
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I hear ya. Pls share what ya find out.
CremaDiLimone
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- Jun 8, 2016
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i'll be nice about it, but it's probably worth explaining.
example - let's say 9 analysts from 9 different investment banks say aal will lose $4.00 a share for the quarter. if you know that aal has, say, 500 million shares outstanding - you know they are talking about aal losing $2 billion in a quarter.
if aal ends up losing $3.98 a share in that quarter - it's a beat. they beat on the bottom line. they 'beat' the street. the street said $4 a share loss, company ended up losing $3.98 a share.
they beat by .02 cents. doesn't matter that they lost money in the quarter..they beat. in that context, which is universally accepted by the investment world, my statement stands.
if those same analysts said that aal would rake in $5 billion in revenue in a quarter and aal says they pulled in $5.1 billion in revenues for that quarter - then, that's called a beat on the top line.
i throw bags for a living and i know that. i'm just trying to help out and talk about issues that the airlines and employees are dealing with. i'll temper it down a few notches.
i used the term 'beat' because they did beat - money-wise and in the context of more pax flew than expected; without a vaccine and a therapuetic for the virus.
this tells me that the american public is itching to travel when the virus is judged to be under control, by the powers that be.
V.O. Reason
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- May 3, 2019
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The one thing I did read is that the airlines have a lot of cash on hand right now thanks to the payroll support
They say this is what will get them through which is why there pushing for more help
They say this is what will get them through which is why there pushing for more help
i understand the concept, as an investor. as an employee its a whole different ball game. in the example above if "beating" expectations by 1 penny means it comes from my benefits, rest assured they will do it.
Your last statement I too agree with. I think the American public is itching badly to get back to travels. They too have been putting back lots of $$$ during this pandemic. I foresee a mad rush in the travel industry as a whole once the parameters are safer for travels. Now rather that is summer of 2021 or fall, or maybe not until spring of 2023 only the American public will determine that.
And they are one step closer to a third PSP coming to the airlines again.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-house-committee-approves-another-025947758.html
So AA is now looking hard at their deep, deep debt issues square in the face. Some may even say a bit late. After reading this article below I had two questions pop up. Is this a type of last minute desperate move prior to a possible BK filing or at least thoughts of filing? OR is it more of a smarter move to take advantage of the lower pandemic rates on the special gov. loans being offered to keep businesses afloat, and to help lower the cost of their outstanding very large debt load. I ask these two questions because as I read this article you could ask yourself either question and both could seem to fit easily. And maybe even a third one of, are they cleaning up the debt faster in order to get approved and move into a merger/combination easier with less cost of debt outstanding? Interesting to say the least IMO.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/american-airlines-weigh-refinancing-treasury-020818450.html
V.O. Reason
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- May 3, 2019
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This just seems like they are preparing for what happens when the payroll protection ends, plus taking advantage of the friendly banks and refinancing options.
I still don’t think bankruptcy is coming. Yes it still could happen and not just to AA, but I at least think that is a last resort
Kev3188
Veteran
BK is coming if AA doesn't make some tough decisions soon. The right thing to do would be offer Early Outs people will actually take. My guess is they'll take the easy way out and just drop the hammer on furloughs.
Yup. That is the m.o. i would love to take the early out at 57 there has to be some kind of assurance they will actually pay what they promise. the idea of deferring most of the benefits for a year just does not give a warm and fuzzy. let me collect my vacation, sick and compensation and what ever else you offer then collect my pension and ill go. the 150K in medical needs to be a deposit not a "notional" account. until that comes around or i turn 62 ill ride it out till the end. what is more concerning for maintenance and related is the quality of management they are promoting. there is no one with any inspiration, with all the changes and how difficult they are making it to accomplish your job even the most dedicated are starting to throw their hands up in frustration. every pay period that goes by i strengthen my financial position. at this point if it shuts down tomorrow i wont have to go to walmart and ask for the cat food section.
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Hope you can do it. we will see when the time (offers) come. I was in hopes to take the Southwest offer on their EO package, but a bit too early for me by about 6-8 years too early before my original early retirement age.
Hopefully a new relief aid will come thru for the airlines one last time to help fend off the layoffs/furloughs as well as possibly BK filings for some.
JREwing
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- Feb 11, 2014
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There are some divisions of all the airlines that are simply overstaffed and eventually they will have to layoff. Airline travel will not be fully back after the next round of federal handouts ends this fall and they CAN NOT keeping bailing out certain businesses while others fail.
I for one am polishing up my resume'
I for one am polishing up my resume'
Agree 100% i have started a second career part time, not sure if ill be successful enough to make it work. If they actually came out with an early out where i can seperate with some cushion i would feel comfortable trying
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eolesen
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- Jul 23, 2003
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Not sure why any of you think that an early out will help anyone avoid bankruptcy.
The problem at AA or any of the other airlines right now doesn't appear to be headcount.
The problem is whether or not the growing piles of debt can be serviced while business travel is non-existent and international traffic is a fraction of what it was 18 months ago.
Huh. Every time I can think of over the past 50 years that airlines have managed to have been profitable for a few years, some outside event happens that "nobody could have imagined" and traffic dries up. 9/11, SARS, terrorism, a global economic meltdown in 2008....
Yeah, this is bad, but if the airlines could have cut staff last March to what was actually needed to keep the operation running, I suspect they'd be approaching cashflow neutral by now. That's how all those earlier events were survivable.
The problem at AA or any of the other airlines right now doesn't appear to be headcount.
The problem is whether or not the growing piles of debt can be serviced while business travel is non-existent and international traffic is a fraction of what it was 18 months ago.
Huh. Every time I can think of over the past 50 years that airlines have managed to have been profitable for a few years, some outside event happens that "nobody could have imagined" and traffic dries up. 9/11, SARS, terrorism, a global economic meltdown in 2008....
Yeah, this is bad, but if the airlines could have cut staff last March to what was actually needed to keep the operation running, I suspect they'd be approaching cashflow neutral by now. That's how all those earlier events were survivable.
