New AA is going to grow in NYC.

[WorldTraveler]

in terms of the LOCAL NYC market, no they do not.

UA carries more passengers THRU NYC than DL does.... but DL uses its slots to serve a higher percentage of local NYC passengers per flight than UA does. Given that LGA is the preferred airport for short-haul traffic from NYC and JFK is the preferred airport for long-haul traffic, it is easier for both AA and DL to maximize their position in the local market over UA which relies on a lot of connecting traffic to fill their flights.


And as has been noted inother topics, UA's network is much more vulnerable to the staffing problems with the regional jet industry than other carriers. 48% of UA's flights from NYC (all 3 airports) are on 50 seaters or turboprops vs 13% for DL and 25% for AA.

Specific to LAX, DL flies no 50 seat RJs to/from LAX. AA and UA are both around 28%, AA a percent lower, UA a percent higher.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

No one is denying that DL didn't recognize it had to invest a lot of money and patience to grow to the position they now have in NYC - but DL has handedly asserted itself as the largest domestic airline in NYC as well as the largest total airline by passengers in NYC. Their revenue position is not at the same proportionate level but they are the solid #2 airline in revenue and revenue is growing at a very healthy rate.

 

UA carries more passengers in the EWR, JFK, and LGA combined than Delta.

 

in terms of the LOCAL NYC market, no they do not.

 
WT is never wrong      and DL is the best-airline-ever

 

[WorldTraveler]

sorry but these are basic facts. Either DL does or does not carry the largest number of passengers in the NYC local market.

DL realized that there was a unique opportunity to build NYC into a carrier at which LGA and JFK could be dominated by a legacy carrier. CO recognized the opportunity at EWR and built it into a hub but EWR is not the preferred airport for either short or longhaul NYC originating traffic.

DL flooded NYC with RJs when AA wanted to eliminate slots, DL did the slot deal, and DL is now in a position to grow NYC using larger aircraft and new markets and DL is positioned to be the long-term leader in NYC.

I'm not sure how some people can argue about the structural advantages that AA has at LAX but not recognize the same thing exists at NYC for DL. I have never said that AA can't grow at NYC but rather that they will always have a structural disadvantage in a market that is a true hub no different than ATL or DFW - but with a much richer local market and fewer flights.

DL has growth potential at LAX and they will use it, just as I expect that AA will wring every ounce of revenue it can out of its gates. That is what well-run businesses do.

No carrier will ever approach the share levels at LAX that DL and UA have in NYC purely because of facility restraints while AA cannot grow enough in NYC to overcome the structural advantages that DL and UA have.

But I am certainly not telling anyone that AA should give up or that they shouldn't try to use the assets they have to the greatest maximization of revenue.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

sorry but these are basic facts. Either DL does or does not carry the largest number of passengers in the NYC local market.

 
That's not the statement/claim you initially made.  When 700 pointed this out, you, being the sniveling brat that you are, requalified your statement to prove to yourself (and spectator) that you were right all along. Pretty pathetic.
 

 

[commavia]

Some want to continue living in a fantasyland where Delta cracked the code on sustained profitability and growth and then shut the door behind them, but this is demonstrably ridiculous.  It's becoming increasingly obvious that the gap in financial strength (and therefore freedom of motion and opportunities for strategic opportunism) is narrowing, not growing, between Delta and the industry.  Yes, Delta has been well-run in recent years, but it must also be said that Delta has had it relatively easy - merely not massively screwing things up would have put Delta comfortably ahead of its main rivals (AA, Southwest and United).  Delta has had a honeymoon period for the last five years where its three largest competitors were all materially weaker - financially, geographically, and/or otherwise - but that honeymoon period is rapidly coming to a close.  The advantages Delta built for itself were certainly visionary and lucrative, but don't appear to be particularly sustainable - other carriers are rapidly evolving and the results are speaking for themselves.
 
In short: whether some want to admit it or not, significant opportunities exist for Delta's competitors to grow and prosper - in New York, LA and elsewhere.
 
The constant need to draw straight line projections such that "because the competitive dynamic has looked like this for the last half-decade, so therefore it will continue looking like this forever" are obviously wrong, but also quite telling.  AA, arguably in particular, represents a major competitive threat to Delta if it's well-run, and the continuous downplaying and reality-twisting is just emblamatic of the fear some have of this threat.

 

[WorldTraveler]

and 700 and you have never seemed to be able to grasp that how many passengers an airline carries thru a city says nothing about how strong they are in that market.

I shouldn't have to keep making that qualification when talking with intelligent people who understand market dynamics.

Mark and Commavia and others get the context. 700 wants to argue.

The point remains that DL is the largest passenger carrier in the local NYC market.

the only pathetic is the depth to which some people are willing to go to try and avoid dealing with the realities that are part of the industry. They seem to want to get into discussions about them but not accept the facts.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

sorry but these are basic facts. Either DL does or does not carry the largest number of passengers in the NYC local market.

DL realized that there was a unique opportunity to build NYC into a carrier at which LGA and JFK could be dominated by a legacy carrier. CO recognized the opportunity at EWR and built it into a hub but EWR is not the preferred airport for either short or longhaul NYC originating traffic.

DL flooded NYC with RJs when AA wanted to eliminate slots, DL did the slot deal, and DL is now in a position to grow NYC using larger aircraft and new markets and DL is positioned to be the long-term leader in NYC.

I'm not sure how some people can argue about the structural advantages that AA has at LAX but not recognize the same thing exists at NYC for DL. I have never said that AA can't grow at NYC but rather that they will always have a structural disadvantage in a market that is a true hub no different than ATL or DFW - but with a much richer local market and fewer flights.

DL has growth potential at LAX and they will use it, just as I expect that AA will wring every ounce of revenue it can out of its gates. That is what well-run businesses do.

No carrier will ever approach the share levels at LAX that DL and UA have in NYC purely because of facility restraints while AA cannot grow enough in NYC to overcome the structural advantages that DL and UA have.

But I am certainly not telling anyone that AA should give up or that they shouldn't try to use the assets they have to the greatest maximization of revenue.

 
Hey, I'm just wondering, is there a forum (or a thread) where one can read and discuss new AA's potential growth plans for NYC?

 

[700UW]

The topic here is NYC and DL is already the largest carrier in NYC. Because of slot and facility constraints, there is very little likelihood of any reranking of carriers in NYC. AA might upgrade some flights and reallocate some slots but their basic size is pretty well fixed.

No where does it say local market, so once again you were wrong.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

and 700 and you have never seemed to be able to grasp that how many passengers an airline carries thru a city says nothing about how strong they are in that market.

I shouldn't have to keep making that qualification when talking with intelligent people who understand market dynamics.

The point remains that DL is the largest passenger carrier in the local NYC market.

the only pathetic is the depth to which some people are willing to go to try and avoid dealing with the realities that are part of the industry. They seem to want to get into discussions about them but not accept the facts.

 
I belive you're the one who touted, in post #59, how DL is the largest total airline by passengers in NYC.  If it doesn't matter, then an intelligent person would not be making statements with qualifiers / pre-conditions / fabricating definitions / etc. just to be able to either win an arguement or to prove to be correct all the time. 
 
Whatever dude.  As far as I'm concerned you can go 'grasp' yourself.

 

[WorldTraveler]

the reason why DL is in the discussion - as is UA - is because AA's desire to grow its NYC presence runs up against real competitive challenges and advantages- which no one has been able to explain how AA is going to overcome.

You and 700 once again demonstrate that you want to participate in market-based discussions but you can't deal with the reality that succeeding in the marketplace doesn't just happen because someone either at some airline's HDQ or on an internet chat forum decides they want to grow there. Whether you can accept it or not, there are people at AA's HDQ who truly grasp the competitive environment AA faces in achieving its strategic goals and those goals mean pushing against a lot of competitors who aren't about to give up what they have built.

No one is starting threads about AA's growth in Latin America where for now there is no doubt that AA has an advantage that no other carrier wants to challenge. Other carriers know the competitive situation and work to achieve their goals and bite off only as much as they can chew.

Yet, somehow, people here seem to think that AA can push into other key markets for other carriers.

I have absolutely nothing wrong with AA growing in NYC but they have given up huge amounts of share; their merger partner gave away 1/4 of the slots at LGA - and gave away is truly the accurate word to use; and DL has secured enough gates at LGA that it will be years before anyone has enough space to challenge DL - even if they had slots. The simple reality is that AA and US both squandered years in NYC while competitors grew. There is no going back to where they once were. Holding onto LAX and what they have is absolutely important but it will never undo the advantage that AA had at NYC and which is now gone.

DL has had a first mover advantage that it has used to its advantage. But there is no evidence that basic principles of the industry such as how hub dominance work will change or have anything to do with the timing of DL's merger.

 

[FWAAA]

Hey, I'm just wondering, is there a forum (or a thread) where one can read and discuss new AA's potential growth plans for NYC?

+1.
 
If ever there was a post that might motivate me to register half a dozen new usernames so that I could vote it up (ala WT's alter egos Spectator and Chucky, etc), this is that post.   
 
Note:  Unlike WT, I possess only one username on this site - this one.   

 

[Kev3188]

 

Hey, I'm just wondering, is there a forum (or a thread) where one can read and discuss new AA's potential growth plans for NYC?

Win.

 

[WorldTraveler]

on a private site where the users can regale themselves with whatever truth they want to believe.

Is not perfectly apparent that the same thing happens when someone bothers to post about AA's growth in LAX to Asia or NYC or any other position?

no fans of other airlines get worked up about the market realities that exist as the AA fan base does.

I'm not really interested in the pep talk or all of the hype about why AA will succeed where it hasn't before.

Nike is right.

Just do it.

And when you accomplish it, come back and gloat.

Until then, if you don't want to deal with reality, then keep your rah rah motivational speeches from mgmt. about all of the great plans to yourself.

 

[AirLUVer]

on a private site where the users can regale themselves with whatever truth they want to believe.

Is not perfectly apparent that the same thing happens when someone bothers to post about AA's growth in LAX to Asia or NYC or any other position?

no fans of other airlines get worked up about the market realities that exist as the AA fan base does.

I'm not really interested in the pep talk or all of the hype about why AA will succeed where it hasn't before.

Nike is right.

Just do it.

And when you accomplish it, come back and gloat.

Until then, if you don't want to deal with reality, then keep your rah rah motivational speeches from mgmt. about all of the great plans to yourself.

Don't be such an A$$hat.

 

[WorldTraveler]

and I will say the same thing to others.

I didn't have anything to do with US' decision to agree to a deal with DL that involved them giving up 1/4 of the slots at LGA and a whole terminal at LGA in return for the equivalent of AA's entire DCA slot portfolio which ended up getting divested (DL knew that the DOJ would never allow US to add any more slots at DCA in the event of a merger and that is exactly what happened), a few shekels, and a Brazil slot that anyone who even remotely understood the US-Brazil treaty knew would be replaced.

I didn't have anything to do with AA's decision to pull down dozens of markets from NYC including cutting out hundreds of seats as well as most of their cargo capacity on AA's number one JFK market - LAX in the name of cutting costs.


All I ever hear from AA fans whenever any strategic issue is discussed is why AA is going to overcome enormous disadvantages that they have never overcome in the past and why the advantages that other carriers have gained don't apply to AA, even though AA gains similar advantages in other markets.

When people here can accept that AA and US both made some enormous strategic failures from which they can never recover - and for which they will live forever with the consequences - then we can have an honest discussion of what AA can do in NYC.

and then when those AA fans resort to name calling and voting down posts just because they don't like what they hear or read, it becomes very obvious who are the ones who are incapable of dealing with competitive market-based discussions in the industry.

If they don't like being reminded of reality, then find a place to discuss it where they don't have to be reminded of the real world.