More Massive Layoffs for 2009 then? Even in Miami

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

Bon Temps,

With "9" years occ. seniority, going into MIA,...though I can't give you a guarantee, I don't think you've got anything to worry about.

If I may ask, where(station) are you at presently ?
(IF you prefer,..... a "PM"(private message) will do.)

 

[MAH4546]

One of the big concerns was that can the delivery of the 737's keep up with the retirement of the AB3? For the 3 year plan..probably..for the new 1 year plan...doubtful unless other stations see deep cuts again..meaning more big systemwide layoffs and bumping, at least that is what some of our (group of employees) thoughts were. Also if the oil goes back up again and then some??

Yes, they will keep up.

The 738s are not replacing the lost S80 domestic capacity. That capacity is gone and not coming back. The new 738s - one new 738 will be delivered every ten days for two years - will serve a new role in the network. They will expand Miami international flying; they will find their way to O'Hare eventually (starting with ORD-LGA/DCA/HPN); and they will take the place of some S80 domestic flying. In addition, they will replace some 757 flying, freeing up 757s to replace A300 flying.

MIA will continue to see growth. JFK will see some, too.

AA is trying to negotatie to eliminate the ridiculous 70-seat/25 plane clause. They want to bring in a contracted carrier flying 75-95 seat RJs to MIA ASAP. This will allow them to right-size capacity in some Miami-Carribbean markets (like MIA-SKB and MIA-CZM); replace some of the longer ERJ-145 flying (like MIA-PIT and MIA-ORF); resume MIA-BAQ; and expand into smaller niche markets that the 738 is too big for (like MIA-BON, MIA-BQM, MIA-CTG). In return, it frees up RJs to go back to Chicago/Dallas and frees up 738s.

Could you see any European Growth in the near future for MIA? e.g MIA-BCN/MXP

MIA-MXP would have happened this winter if it weren't for fuel doubling recently. MIA-MXP is definitley a question of "when," but right now everything is so delicate that AA does not want to double capacity to Milan so quickly. They will wait for JFK-MXP to mature, and then follow-up with MIA-MXP.

MIA-BCN is very likely when AA/BA/IB ATI is established, as is DFW-MAD.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

MAH4546,

I NEVER get tired of saying this,....."but YOU are GOOD..brother"


Marks correctly states that AA needs to "right size the Mia flying"

I'd take that Further, and say, That AA needs to "Right size the Airline", and believe it or not,...NOT necessarily shrink domestically(significantly), but establish More STRANGLEHOLDS on certain markets in the US.

IMHO, MIA is poised to overtake DFW as AA's #1 Hub.
ORD is at a (somewhat) disadvantage, due to UAL, but Imagine if DFW and MIA could have the O+D traffic that ORD has, coupled with their(DFW-MIA) connecting traffic.

 

[WingNaPrayer]

IMHO, MIA is poised to overtake DFW as AA's #1 Hub.

I believe it already does in revenue - or profit, one of the two.

 

[AC AA LA FA]

The 738s are not replacing the lost S80 domestic capacity. That capacity is gone and not coming back. The new 738s - one new 738 will be delivered every ten days for two years - will serve a new role in the network. They will expand Miami international flying; they will find their way to O'Hare eventually (starting with ORD-LGA/DCA/HPN); and they will take the place of some S80 domestic flying. In addition, they will replace some 757 flying, freeing up 757s to replace A300 flying.

West coast regional management has said that ORD-West (SFO-LAX-SAN-SNA-SEA-SJC) would be the 738 1st mission out of ORD, not east..?
Super80s ORD West has been a nightmare for all concerned.

 

[mrman]

IMHO, MIA is poised to overtake DFW as AA's #1 Hub.

I believe it already does in revenue - or profit, one of the two.

Add Love opens up in several years allowing WN to drive prices down may make MIA further profitable. WN will set fares in key markets of DFW-California, Florida, Chicago, Phoenix, Nevada and midwest. What will be interesting is the effect WN and Spirit operation will have on MIA. My uneducated thought is the dent won't be as bad as Dallas

 

[IORFA]

West coast regional management has said that ORD-West (SFO-LAX-SAN-SNA-SEA-SJC) would be the 738 1st mission out of ORD, not east..?
Super80s ORD West has been a nightmare for all concerned.

You can also add ORD management to that list. They have been saying it ever since the announcment about more 737's. Although some in MIA might disagree.

 

[MAH4546]

West coast regional management has said that ORD-West (SFO-LAX-SAN-SNA-SEA-SJC) would be the 738 1st mission out of ORD, not east..?
Super80s ORD West has been a nightmare for all concerned.

Currently it is first set for ORD-LGA/DCA/HPN, starting 31JAN09, but that can easily change. Putting them on West Coast makes more sense, but it's easier to rotate them through East Coast for scheduling purposes.

 

[CubsFanJohn]

Currently it is first set for ORD-LGA/DCA/HPN, starting 31JAN09, but that can easily change. Putting them on West Coast makes more sense, but it's easier to rotate them through East Coast for scheduling purposes.

ORD-HPN I am not surprise with that one coming back 1st
But instead of ORD-LGA/DCA I personally (I am not with AA or Airline Industry just using common sense) would have been ORD-LAX/SFO with maybe a turn or two to DFW to rotate planes thru. Also with the 75-95 RJ's would they be flown by AE?

 

[DFWFSC]

I know TUS is high on the 738 list for next summer, the MD-80s are very weight restricted TUS-ORD due to the heat and altitude/density..etc. When it's hot the captain has two options, leave 15-20 behind or accomadate everybody and stop enroute for fuel at ICT or IND or OMA, etc.. Lot's of missed connections on the ORD end.

 

[lpbrian]

Test question: what requires more maintenance; 20 year old A300's or brand spanking new 737's? Answer: A300's by a factor of 3.

 

[MAH4546]

ORD-HPN I am not surprise with that one coming back 1st
But instead of ORD-LGA/DCA I personally (I am not with AA or Airline Industry just using common sense) would have been ORD-LAX/SFO with maybe a turn or two to DFW to rotate planes thru. Also with the 75-95 RJ's would they be flown by AE?

It does make more sense to put them on ORD-West Coast and AA is working on doing it ASAP. It is because of scheduling conflicts that - as of now - it won't happen right away. They take up long block times.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

Add Love opens up in several years allowing WN to drive prices down may make MIA further profitable. WN will set fares in key markets of DFW-California, Florida, Chicago, Phoenix, Nevada and midwest. What will be interesting is the effect WN and Spirit operation will have on MIA. My uneducated thought is the dent won't be as bad as Dallas

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mrman,

WN doesn't Impact AA one bit into MIA,...not because they don't fly there,....but because MIA is "like" a State, within a state, with it's OWN..O+D traffic, plus massive connecting traffic.

BUT you ARE correct, that WN is KILLING everyone ELSE, flying into the FLL/MIA area(like DL/LCC) :angry:

Oh well ..........."in every life..a lil' rain must fall"

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As to the discussion of ORD-HPN,

For those of you who aren't aware,....HPN(being in Westchester county NY) is Abutted by Fairfield county, Connectucut.
Those 2 counties are on the top-10 list, of the MOST affluent counties in the USA, meaning that their is PLENTY of..."Do-Re-Mi" to be spent on High Priced Tickets, for the "chosen ones"($$$) who don't have to have ther Limo's driven to JFL/LGA/EWR !
(and closely related to this HPN subject), ..for the life of me, I CANNOT understand WHY, WN hasn't opened up shop in nearby SWF..(Stewart-Newburgh/NY) ?

 

[FWAAA]

As to the discussion of ORD-HPN,

For those of you who aren't aware,....HPN(being in Westchester county NY) is Abutted by Fairfield county, Connectucut.
Those 2 counties are on the top-10 list, of the MOST affluent counties in the USA, meaning that their is PLENTY of..."Do-Re-Mi" to be spent on High Priced Tickets, for the "chosen ones"($$$) who don't have to have ther Limo's driven to JFL/LGA/EWR !
(and closely related to this HPN subject), ..for the life of me, I CANNOT understand WHY, WN hasn't opened up shop in nearby SWF..(Stewart-Newburgh/NY) ?

Bears, I may be not remembering things correctly - but aren't those two airports surrounded by I don't want any airplane noise over my neighborhood NIMBYs? Those things tend to go hand in hand with high income and expensive property values. Even the clowns living in Long Beach have limited their airport to 41 daily mainline flights (most of which are flown by B6). And LGB isn't even all that high-income.

I agree that suburban NYC should be a terrific market for making money with 738s to ORD, DFW and MIA. Maybe even the west coast if the runways are long enough. But look at ISP. Eagle doesn't even fly there anymore, does it? I used to fly there from BOS on the SAABs. Fun flight. Great little airport in a nice suburban Long Island location. By all rights, AA should be able to fly a few daily 738s from ISP to the hubs.

Maybe you're right and AA can make a go of it at HPN. AA still flies three daily flights from BUR to DFW.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

Bears, I may be not remembering things correctly - but aren't those two airports surrounded by I don't want any airplane noise over my neighborhood NIMBYs? Those things tend to go hand in hand with high income and expensive property values. Even the clowns living in Long Beach have limited their airport to 41 daily mainline flights (most of which are flown by B6). And LGB isn't even all that high-income.

I agree that suburban NYC should be a terrific market for making money with 738s to ORD, DFW and MIA. Maybe even the west coast if the runways are long enough. But look at ISP. Eagle doesn't even fly there anymore, does it? I used to fly there from BOS on the SAABs. Fun flight. Great little airport in a nice suburban Long Island location. By all rights, AA should be able to fly a few daily 738s from ISP to the hubs.

Maybe you're right and AA can make a go of it at HPN. AA still flies three daily flights from BUR to DFW.

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FWAAA,..as always, an intelligent post !

Correct about "NIMBY", (BUT they still want the service, as long as they can COMPLAIN FIRST)

There is ZERO doubt, that AA could make $$$ out of ISP to.."somewhere"(PVD and my "Back Yard"..MHT.......... Additional........."HEAD SCRATCHERS" :unsure: :unsure:

Just some of those "HDQ things"..............we will "NEVER know", or Understand(about) .