More Hints About Merger

It looks as if the long talked about snowball, is about to be pushed down the consolidation hill. Once it starts rolling, goodness knows what this industry will look like in 5 years.
 
luv2fly said:
It will be interesting to see how the seniority lists end up. I would venture a guess that quite a few America west pilots are about to get furloughed.
[post="268762"][/post]​
Again..the average age of USAirways pilots is in the 53-55 range. That is over 2500 pilots retired in the next 5 to 7 years. Thats alot of movement in a very short time period.
 
She does not have an MBA or a degree from an Ivy League school -- her only education is a two-year program at the Becker Junior College in Worchester, Mass, where she trained to become a legal secretary.

Hey Dan, where the heck is Worchester?
 
Yes, stunned. By "Lay-zers"

The investor goes by Dr. E and pledges "one millllllion dollars"!






Sorry I just couldn't resist.
 
markkus757 said:
If the merger does take place, I'm curious to see the fleet and route network. I'm also very interested to see what will happen to the feeders. I can see AWAC and Republic join Mesa as the primary feeders with Trans States being "let go." Not sire what would become of the Piedmont's and Colgan's in the "new" airline...
[post="268880"][/post]​
Well, if anything, it has forced the legion of naysayers to shift their tune from " US Airways will be dead in a matter of weeks" that they have been chanting all year long... To " There is no way this deal will work".

As for the Feeders, I agree... Republic/CHQ, AWAC, and Mesa are my guesses.

TSA will be let go, Colgan will probably be let go, and PDT and PSA I still think will be absorbed into the either Mesa and/or AWAC as part of some deal to square away previous agreements, and to gather additional investment/acquire a stake in whatever operation this all becomes.

I would assume that all three would operate 50 and 70 seaters, while there is a good chance they will each operate 90 seaters as well (Republic in the E-170/190 and AWAC and Mesa in the CRJ-700/900's).

Whatever turboprop flying needs exist will be covered by Mesa and whomever acquires PDT... The days of J-41's and Saabs are probably limited...

Just my guess
 
You've got to be kidding. The President of Southwest Airlines doesn't drive a car. WOW!

I'm glad for you folks at US if this merger happens and I believe it will. HP has done a pretty good job of positioning itself to compete in a terribly competitive business. HP isn't much on quality, though, so those of you that have roots in the golden days of yore (such as at Piedmont) might think about moving on. Not only will outsourced stations not change but you might be surprised at all the other places where corners can be cut.

This merger also shows how badly investors believe there is money to be made by restructuring the industry. There are still lots of valuable assets and there are obviously no shortage of passengers. What's been needed is a management team that knows how to run an airline and is willing to take a chance. HP keeps a medium grade on the former and a high grade on the latter. Any other airlines that want to survive should take note. Cut your costs, run a reasonably reliable business, make money at least some of the time, and there will be plenty of investors ready to hand over money to acquire those carriers who can do none of the above.
 
Would the surviving company be permitted to operate HP's beyond perimiter slots from DCA? (PHX & LAS)???
 
in the past, beyond perimeter slots have had to be returned. Given that US carries more than 40% of passengers in/out of DCA, there isn't a compelling case for them being unable to serve the market... they just will have to develop enough long-haul flying from CLT to tap into HP's markets.

How does UA fit into all of this? Do you think they will sit by idly while US cozies up to someone with alot more to offer than UA - and someone that competes directly with UA in many markets?
 
If a holding company buys both HP and U, why can't they operate them separately indefinately vis a vis Wexford with Republic and Chautauqua?
 
qwerty said:
Would the surviving company be permitted to operate HP's beyond perimiter slots from DCA? (PHX & LAS)???
[post="268944"][/post]​

That will be intresting as AA was not allowed to fly the TW exemption slot DCA/SFO they were awarded prior to the takeover or so-called merger.
 
BoeingBoy said:
The number actually in furlough status decreases over time as those furloughed resign, retire, etc. The last count I did was in the vicinity of 1620, but the latest ALPA number (from the tag-line on the code-a-phone) is 1574. I don't doubt the accuracy of that number at the time it was determined. As time goes by, the number will shrink - assuming no further furloughs.

As to attrition, the present trend indeed indicates that 500 or there-abouts will be gone in the next two years or so. Of course, like any trend, predicting what will happen in the future bases on what's happening now is an uncertain endeavor. Coming events could increase or decrease that number.
[post="268853"][/post]​

This got me to thinking, so I wanted to update the numbers. Keep in mind that what I have are as of the last pilot permanent bid award which occured on 3/21/05, so any changes since then will affect the numbers below.

Furloughed list:

Of the 1711 pilots in the furloughed seniority range, 1572 were in furlough status on 3/21/05. The rest are retired, have resigned, and one, unfortunately, has died. As I said above, any changes since 3/21/05 will decrease the number of furloughed pilots.

Of the 1572 (minus changes since 3/21/05), 7 will reach the mandatory retirement age during the remainder of this year.

Active list:

Two notes first-

Note 1 - the seniority list for the pilots permanent bid is "cleansed" once a year in preparation for awarding the first bid of the following year. This "cleansing" removes those who have retired, resigned, etc, since the previous years "cleansing" plus those who will be retiring at age 60 during the remainder of that year. In preparation for awarding the first bid of 2005, this "cleansing" occured in late November of 2004, so any early retirements, resignations, etc, that occured later in 2004 are still included on the list.

Note 2 - again, this is as of 3/21/05. Changes since then will affect these numbers.

The active list contains 3537 pilots. Of these 159 have retired, 51 have resigned, and 2 unfortunately died since the late 2004 "cleansing" of the list occured. This means that 210 non-furloughed pilots left the employment of US between late November 2004 and late March 2005 - a period of 4 months - not including age 60 retirements in December 2004 (they were "cleansed" from the list). If my math is right, that leaves 3325 pilots.

Of these 3325, 367 are on long term medical/disability leave. Obviously, this number changes as pilots either return from or go on medical/disability leave, and is probably affected by the average age of the pilot group more than anything other than the size of the group. But using this number, we're down to 2958 pilots.

The next catagory is "supervisory pilots", predominately check airmen (instructors). There were 110 of these on 3/21/05, though once again the number can change as pilots either return to flying or enter the "supervisory" ranks. But taking this number, we're down to 2848 pilots.

Finally, we're down to two types of LOA - personal and military. As of 3/21/05 there were 53 pilots on personal leave and 13 pilots on military leave. As has been posted somewhere before, the company is requiring that those on personal leave either return or resign so this number (53) will shrink to 0 shortly, but only time will tell how many return vs resign. In the meantime, though, this brings us to 2782 pilots that were actually flying the schedule as of 3/21/05.

There should be a new pilot's permanent bid out later this month. It'll be interesting to see how some of these numbers have changed in 2 months.

Jim
 
Why haven't any DOJ objections been brought up? Surely they are going to object to some things.

What kinds of concessions are they going to require?
 
jack mama said:
Why haven't any DOJ objections been brought up? Surely they are going to object to some things.

What kinds of concessions are they going to require?
[post="268955"][/post]​


no concession
 
jack mama said:
Why haven't any DOJ objections been brought up? Surely they are going to object to some things.

What kinds of concessions are they going to require?
[post="268955"][/post]​


The two only compete on a handful of routes between PHL, PIT, CLT and LAS and PHX. Southwest has solved part of that problem with flts from both PIT and PHL to PXH and LAS. 6 flights a day betwen PHX and CLT won't require any concessions. The Trans Continental routes connecting traffic betwen cities East and West are heavily competed on by all airlines and AMR, UAL, and DAL will all still be bigger in Trans Con market share.
 

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