BoeingBoy said:
The number actually in furlough status decreases over time as those furloughed resign, retire, etc. The last count I did was in the vicinity of 1620, but the latest ALPA number (from the tag-line on the code-a-phone) is 1574. I don't doubt the accuracy of that number
at the time it was determined. As time goes by, the number will shrink - assuming no further furloughs.
As to attrition, the present trend indeed indicates that 500 or there-abouts will be gone in the next two years or so. Of course, like any trend, predicting what will happen in the future bases on what's happening now is an uncertain endeavor. Coming events could increase or decrease that number.
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This got me to thinking, so I wanted to update the numbers. Keep in mind that what I have are as of the last pilot permanent bid award which occured on 3/21/05, so any changes since then will affect the numbers below.
Furloughed list:
Of the 1711 pilots in the furloughed seniority range, 1572 were in furlough status on 3/21/05. The rest are retired, have resigned, and one, unfortunately, has died. As I said above, any changes since 3/21/05 will decrease the number of furloughed pilots.
Of the 1572 (minus changes since 3/21/05), 7 will reach the mandatory retirement age during the remainder of this year.
Active list:
Two notes first-
Note 1 - the seniority list for the pilots permanent bid is "cleansed" once a year in preparation for awarding the first bid of the following year. This "cleansing" removes those who have retired, resigned, etc, since the previous years "cleansing" plus those who will be retiring at age 60 during the remainder of that year. In preparation for awarding the first bid of 2005, this "cleansing" occured in late November of 2004, so any early retirements, resignations, etc, that occured later in 2004 are still included on the list.
Note 2 - again, this is as of 3/21/05. Changes since then will affect these numbers.
The active list contains 3537 pilots. Of these 159 have retired, 51 have resigned, and 2 unfortunately died since the late 2004 "cleansing" of the list occured. This means that 210 non-furloughed pilots left the employment of US between late November 2004 and late March 2005 - a period of 4 months - not including age 60 retirements in December 2004 (they were "cleansed" from the list). If my math is right, that leaves 3325 pilots.
Of these 3325, 367 are on long term medical/disability leave. Obviously, this number changes as pilots either return from or go on medical/disability leave, and is probably affected by the average age of the pilot group more than anything other than the size of the group. But using this number, we're down to 2958 pilots.
The next catagory is "supervisory pilots", predominately check airmen (instructors). There were 110 of these on 3/21/05, though once again the number can change as pilots either return to flying or enter the "supervisory" ranks. But taking this number, we're down to 2848 pilots.
Finally, we're down to two types of LOA - personal and military. As of 3/21/05 there were 53 pilots on personal leave and 13 pilots on military leave. As has been posted somewhere before, the company is requiring that those on personal leave either return or resign so this number (53) will shrink to 0 shortly, but only time will tell how many return vs resign. In the meantime, though, this brings us to 2782 pilots that were actually flying the schedule as of 3/21/05.
There should be a new pilot's permanent bid out later this month. It'll be interesting to see how some of these numbers have changed in 2 months.
Jim