My only comment would be that DL would have higher yields on DCA-MLB than US, and a higher market share than you'd expect, since DL offers a nonstop. That said, I think that both MLB and DAB make great sense to expand into. I'd also take a good look at markets we recently left like PFN, VPS and markets we left not so recently like MTH, AFP. APF is probably the only one of them that can only support one carrier, and they've got DL right now, so that's plenty, but who knows if DL will stick around there in their bankruptcy. Lord knows DL stole enough of US's markets during our two bankruptcies. MTH can support one carrier I think, and it currently has none, and I do recall reading that they're also offering a bunch of incentives, marketing money, waived landing fees to any airline that'll fly there. I think we could fly maybe 1x CLT-MTH, 2x FLL-MTH, with the short segments on the latter route, that wouldn't even tie up a single CRJ for a whole day.
The other place I think US should add nonstop Florida lift is not PHL, and certainly not LGA, but rather DCA. I know, it's got the big markets--MCO, TPA, FLL, PBI, RSW, JAX. And US does own those markets, they might be the last big Florida routes left in the system that US still dominates and hasn't ceded to another airline. In the last year or two, US successfully chased DL off of those routes, which is a huge accomplishment for US given its recent history in Florida, and DL's (completely opposite) recent history there. But those markets are also the low-yielding ones. US might not have the customers to fight AA on DCA-MIA (though I really think 1x or 2x will work after US moves into the new Star teminal, given all the connectivity at DCA). And there isn't room for two carriers on DCA-MLB. But that leaves several markets ripe for the taking by US. DCA-TLH would be a *great* market for 2x or 3x daily RJs, loads of government traffic there. DCA-PNS could easily support 3x E70 or 2x 319. DCA-SRQ might be a little lower yielding because of AirTran offering conx service, but 1x 319 sounds great for it. There were questions as to whether the E70 could handle either CLT-EYW or DCA-EYW, but if it can, those routes would be a cash cow, letting people make a single conx to get to EYW instead of once at the hub then again onto an Express plane in Florida, like almost all the other airlines offer. (DL offers a CR7 on ATL-EYW, but ATL is way more inconvenient than CLT or DCA, and the CR7 can't hold a candle to the E70, though it's painful to note that even lowly ASA beats out Republic in my book. And say you throw 1x RJ on DCA-GNV, and then you get to take out ads (remember them?) in DCA, talking about offering service to 10! or more different Florida markets, you want to get from anywhere in Washington to Florida, think US, they offer the most choices. The problem, obviously, is the slots. But I think they can be found. Most markets at DCA only have 3x frequencies, and those can't be cut. But a few have more, primarily the Florida ones, which really don't need extra frequency for business. Cut MCO from 6x to 5x and upgrade the 737s to 757, end result no change in lift and a freed up slot. Cut TPA from 5x to 4x, upguage the equipment, same result. There's two, not a ton, but not bad. But you can maybe do the same thing at say HSV, go from 4x CRJ to 3x E70. RDU could go from 6x to 5x and upgrade a few CRJs to E70s. The point is, the slots are there if US wants them. Also, US leases about 20 slots from NW right now (10 roundtrips), and NW just cut several markets at DCA, so I'd assume they've got an extra few pairs available for lease for US to add markets and/or frequencies.
There's even a free pair of slots available right now. Spirit returned slots that they were using on DCA-MYR. (That's no less than THREE different occasions in the last four years where Spirit has bitched, whined, screamed, cried, and thrown a fit about not having DCA slots, were given some slots by the DOT, used them briefly, and then returned them deciding they couldn't make money in the market. In the meantime, they've tied up the valuable slots sitting unused for months. AirTran does the same thing. Spirit was given a pair of slots to use for either MLB/MYR and a pair of slots to be used for either FLL/PBI/RSW. They returned them, after failing on DCA-MLB and DCA-FLL. Yes, they couldn't make DCA-FLL work, the airline with the focus city at FLL. The DOT then gave them four more slots, both for DCA-FLL to try that market again. Then the DOT gave them two slots for DTW service. Then two two slots to give DCA-MYR another whirl, which they're again returning. As for AirTran, they were given four slots for some combo of DCA-FLL/PBI/RSW. They then asked for and received an exemption to delay beginning service by a *year*. They eventually started DCA-FLL and DCA-RSW. Then they moved the DCA-FLL to DCA-PBI. Then they asked the DOT to stop the DCA-PBI service for the summer because it was the slow season, but to keep the slots. The DOT finally said enough was enough. Again, how can FL not make markets like DCA-PBI/FLL work?
The slots can only be used to small hubs (read: small airports, the word hubs is misleading) or smaller. But that's often misleading, and a number of larger airports (in Florida, for example) will qualify. And these slots are supposed to be used to introduce low fares and provide new service at underserved markets. Yet they were awarded repeatedly for the underserved small high-fare markets of DCA-FLL/PBI/RSW. Oh, finally, with these particular slots, the DOT is not allowed to penalize US for having the most slots or give FL/NK a boost for not having many. And yet, look at the markets that keep getting them, and look at the airlines that keep getting them over and over, despite a documented history of breaking the rules and not utilizing the slots when they have them. Good thing the DOT doesn't play favorites. Not.
Anyway, all that being said, I do think US has a shot at these slots. They haven't submitted their application yet, but they've confirmed they're applying, along with Comair and (surprise) AirTran. Comair already said they're applying for CRJ service on DCA-SAV. A nice market with no daily service, to be sure, but they'll never get it with that few seats, since FL will be offering mainline, at least. I expect FL to apply for something like DCA-PBI yet again, a market that can't possibly be called small, underserved, or high-fare. That leaves US. If US does what it always does, and applies with a CRJ to ILM or someplace, they're going to lose. But if they apply with a *mainline* plane to somewhere that doesn't currently have DCA service, their advantage will be so great that the DOT will have no choice but to select them. That 319 to PNS sounds like an absolute winner, I can't see how it could do poorly, especially when operated with free slots. But I'm still expecting them to apply with the CRJ to ILM. 🙁
(Finally, I'd also get back into the outstation-to-Florida market, just from the higher yielding outstations that have no LCC competition. And only the ones that can fill a mainline plane, because the high-cost, low-fare 50-seat RJ model from MCO/TPA/FLL to every tiny little airport on the planet has clearly been proven a big failure for both FlyI and especially DL, who adds and drops those routes so fast it'd make your head spin. I'm talking former US Florida nonstop markets like ABE, MDT, HPN, GSO, RIC. Add a few new ones like SWF, AVP, TYS. It's too late to get back what we had in IND, CMH, ISP, BWI, BDL, CLE, EWR, RDU, BUF, ALB, so don't waste time and energy trying. (I think many of those markets would work with a single FLL roundtrip if that's ever built up again as a connecting hub, but certainly never anything to MCO/TPA.) This is the one part of my suggestions that has no chance at all of happening, though, simply because there aren't any planes around to be adding long northeast-Florida stage lengths on that tie up a plane for half the day. Or at least build back up the Saturday nonstops, they reannounced a ton of them about three years ago, but they've been slowly getting cancelled again a few at a time. I know there are fewer aircraft sitting around unused on Saturday since there are fewer aircraft total, but I'm sure they can find a better use for them than they're doing now. And RJs are alright for Saturday Florida service, since it's just to increase utilization.