Merger Relief for American Airlines: April 24, 2012

[wings396]

And why do you care what "wins"?
It appears rather odd to say the least that you are fully consumed with something that isn't in your line of work.
It appears as if you are trying to impress someone with all of your long winded rhetoric.

 

[TWU informer]

And why do you care what "wins"?
It appears rather odd to say the least that you are fully consumed with something that isn't in your line of work.
It appears as if you are trying to impress someone with all of your long winded rhetoric.

There might be more to it than that.
Try again. Bur you are on the right track here.

 

[BoeingBoy]

24 months after the ink dries bye bye TULE.

With Parker you better parse every word - as Clinton said, it depends on what the meaning of "is" is...

Notice the no furlough language you quoted:

"Furlough Protection. For the two year period following the Closing Date, the Company will maintain (i.e., protect from furlough) those approximately 4,500 AMTs at TULE."

That "will maintain ... those approximately 4,500 AMTs at TULE" definitely depends on what the meaning of "is" is. It's easy to read it as saying that the jobs at Tule are assured for two years if you're one of those 4,500 people. But it can also be read as saying only that the AMT's currently holding those jobs at Tule would be retained - not the jobs. So unless there's other language you didn't quote, nothing guarantees that their jobs won't be in DFW or wherever. Nothing even guarantees they'll have OH jobs. Heck, nothing even guarantees they will have AMT jobs, they could be sweeping the break rooms or dumping lavs every day. The only thing guaranteed is that they won't be furloughed before two years after the closing.

In short, if I were one of those 4,500 AMT's in Tule I wouldn't count on anything more than having a job for two years after the closing. I wouldn't count on having a specific job or a job in a specific logation. Having watched Parker for 7 years now - he normally does two of the four "crew news" monthly sessions with pilots and flight attendents - he is a master at making people think he's saying one thing while keeping open the option of claiming he meant something completely different.

Heck, I've even seen him be told about the same problem in 3 or 4 successive monthly crew news sessions and respond every time with a "I wasn't aware of that but I'll look into it" and move on to something else. See something mentioned one time and he seems to be sincerely concerned. The second time you can think that maybe he forgot. The third/fourth time he seems just as sincere but you start to wonder if he's not just brushing off the problem?

Jim

 

[Mach85ER]

I disagree with you and agree with all of the points regardng the 'thoughts' I posted.

You see, they aren't my 'thoughts', they are somebody else's. You disagree with them, fine. Given your participation on this subject, I'd respectfully ask what your background is regarding thesubject. Do yo have a finance or leaderhip background in airline finance or business, any business? Have you worked at an airline, or just an airline afficianado. Nothing wrong with that, but I'm interested in comparing backgrounds to the person that made the statements in my post.

Anyone else disagreeing with the thoughts, feel free to jump in. Eolesen, nice segway, but you've disagreed with the USAir merger and think Hoton has the best plan. BTW, clogging 70 seaters in LGA? Nice plan if it there was the capacity there. I spend enough time wasted waiting fo little planes earning little financial return while waiting for takeoff.

 

[Hopeful]

No thanks. I'm on record as thinking that backing the US merger is labor cutting off your noses to spite your faces.

Others have posted their success in negotiating labor agreements, so I won't repeat it. The one thing they do well is they have a decent operation. That's it. Their service is questionable from first hand experience, their lounges are on par with a Host Marriot restaurant from 1985, and I'd rather drive than fly Mesa Airlines as a commuter partner. I'm actually surprised they haven't been asked to leave Star Alliance.

Strategically, a merger might work since it reduces competition in the short term, but the only thing labor achieves is getting rid of Horton whilst simultaneously further reducing their pay & benefits further than what either the LBO or term sheets are going to accomplish.

At the end of the day, I'd think AA would be better off cutting 15% at DFW, getting 70 seaters with F for the thinner markets out of LGA and using the excess aircraft to add more point to point, all stuff that can be done without US.

Fact is that Redding is gone. Brundage is leaving. Garton has been pushed off to the side. Del Valle is gone. You can go ahead and blame Horton for inheriting the sinking ship, but frankly, I think I'd give the current management team a shot before I'd go trusting US management to be any better.

Seriously, how many of the current crop were even VP's at AA during the 2003 debacle? It's a seriously shrinking list.

I have to agree here....I do not think the US thing is any better or any more trustworthy than the situation we all face,

 

[Mach85ER]

Hopeful,

I don't like the idea either. I'd rather grow and compete. I'd also like rainbows ending in my front yard with unicorns playing with bunnies and kittens. The problem is, it's not going to happen, not a single analyst or airline manager outside AA thinks it will happen either. Wallstreet doesn't think it is going to happen,( they loan the money right?). They all think AA will have to merge with USAirways. But on this board we have WT, Eolesen, FWAAA and others who think this isn't going to happen and AA can grow and prosper under Horton's (public) plan. The problem is, even Horton knows the cornerpost plan is a doomed, his likely plan is to buy USair and enjoy locked-in labor contracts for the next ten years. Are you guys going to be shocked if he does this.

Here's another good one. Do you know what DAL executives call the Horton's plan 'the Tombstone strategy'.

 

[Hopeful]

Hopeful,

I don't like the idea either. I'd rather grow and compete. I'd also like rainbows ending in my front yard with unicorns playing with bunnies and kittens. The problem is, it's not going to happen, not a single analyst or airline manager outside AA thinks it will happen either. Wallstreet doesn't think it is going to happen,( they loan the money right?). They all think AA will have to merge with USAirways. But on this board we have WT, Eolesen, FWAAA and others who think this isn't going to happen and AA can grow and prosper under Horton's (public) plan. The problem is, even Horton knows the cornerpost plan is a doomed, his likely plan is to buy USair and enjoy locked-in labor contracts for the next ten years. Are you guys going to be shocked if he does this.

Here's another good one. Do you know what DAL executives call the Horton's plan 'the Tombstone strategy'.

I hear ya....My biggest problem is my union thinking US is the knight in shining armor...I just don't think they should believe Parker & Co.
Even the TWU term sheets only ensure no layoffs for two years...

 

[Mach85ER]

Hopeful,

Parker is like letting a King Cobra in your house to clear it of rats infested with bubonic plague. You'd better dot your i's and cross your t's while dealing with him because he's a real danger if you don't.

I think TWU is going to take a large hit no matter what. I truly wish it weren't so.

 

[Hopeful]

Hopeful,

Parker is like letting a King Cobra in your house to clear it of rats infested with bubonic plague. You'd better dot your i's and cross your t's while dealing with him because he's a real danger if you don't.

I think TWU is going to take a large hit no matter what. I truly wish it weren't so.

It won't be long until the TWU is protesting Parker's broken promises.

 

[john john]

We'll never know if McCain would have been better or worse.

McCain would have been AA friendly because of McCain jr.

 

[BoeingBoy]

I disagree with you and agree with all of the points regardng the 'thoughts' I posted.

You see, they aren't my 'thoughts', they are somebody else's. You disagree with them, fine. Given your participation on this subject, I'd respectfully ask what your background is regarding thesubject. Do yo have a finance or leaderhip background in airline finance or business, any business? Have you worked at an airline, or just an airline afficianado. Nothing wrong with that, but I'm interested in comparing backgrounds to the person that made the statements in my post.

If that was directed at me, I figured that they weren't your original thoughts - they track with the APA's talking points too closely. What I do believe is that you've bought off on them since you're quoting them without attribution.

My background? It doesn't take much effort to find that. Retired US pilot with multiple concessionary contract "amendments", two bankruptcies and 7 years of watching Parker operate to learn from. While I make no claims that that makes me smarter than anyone, it has provided experience that you might not have. Think of it as a carrier landing (which I've never done) - until you do it you never know what it's really like. I see that demonstrated in questions and statements by members of all workgroups that post here - never been through a bankruptcy so no idea what to expect, never dealt with Parker so accepts blindly what he says.

I couldn't care less what you think or do. I just throw out what I've learned in case it helps. I do hate to see people apparently making decisions based on bad or incomplete information when those decisions may ultimately change their careers for years. From your posts I assume you're an AA pilot so I'll ask - if you were about to do something in an airplane that you'd never done before would you discount the advice of those who had done it or would you at least listen to their advice if offered?

Jim

PS - in the interest of full disclosure, my oldest brother retired from AA almost two decades ago, his oldest son (my nephew) is a pilot for AA, and his other son is a pilot for US so at least one if not both of them will be affected by what happens at AA. So I do have an interest in what happens.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Hopeful,

I don't like the idea either. I'd rather grow and compete. I'd also like rainbows ending in my front yard with unicorns playing with bunnies and kittens. The problem is, it's not going to happen, not a single analyst or airline manager outside AA thinks it will happen either. Wallstreet doesn't think it is going to happen,( they loan the money right?). They all think AA will have to merge with USAirways. But on this board we have WT, Eolesen, FWAAA and others who think this isn't going to happen and AA can grow and prosper under Horton's (public) plan. The problem is, even Horton knows the cornerpost plan is a doomed, his likely plan is to buy USair and enjoy locked-in labor contracts for the next ten years. Are you guys going to be shocked if he does this.

Here's another good one. Do you know what DAL executives call the Horton's plan 'the Tombstone strategy'.

humor us... which DL exec would that be?
.
I'll reiterate once again that I do not work in the airline industry or in any consulting capacity to it. But I do have the education and experience to understand the business of the airline industry.
I would focus your attention on my track record of what I have said on this forum... there are ten years and 4000 posts from which you can make your call. I have a pretty good track record.... the biggest blunder I have made was predicting that UA would fail and provide DL w/ a Pacific route system. UA's story is not finished - we are all still "in progress" but I find it hard to believe that UA is going to be able to make it long term w/o forking over a whole lot of money or having labor discord that will make what AA has had to deal with look like child's play.
I would also remind you that being an airline pilot or any other airline employee doesn't necessarily make you a good manager outside of the cockpit. The history of labor control of the executive suite both inside and outside of the airline industry has very few true success stories for business and a whole lot of examples where labor wasn't willing to make the tough calls to keep the business viable long term and instead like we saw with UA a continual effort to use the company's resources to further labor's pocketbook even if it jeopardized the company's longterm future. The summer of hell at UA in 2000, the massive pay increases, and the subsequent BK marked the end of any hope that labor could meaningfully play a major mgmt role in the airline industry... and the traditional adversarial role remains except in those few airlines that have managed to stay largely non-union or who have paid large premiums to labor to keep them happy. AA and UA have not and likely will not fit either of those categories of success.
.
Actually, there really is no evidence at all that the majority of Wall Street supports a merger with US. There are people who have weighed in supporting it but none of them have addressed a number of key issues, the greatest of which is why AMR's non-labor creditors would support a merger with US that is based on REDUCING the cost cuts that will be made in order to buy labor peace for a merger in which AA would be saving US, not the other way around. Why do AMR's creditors have any interest in increasing their risk by taking on US when they can get all they need to turn AA around in BK?
.
On the subject of AA-US, the members of the board have fallen into 4 camps - those supporting US and who want to see AA provide US with the resources to compete with DL and UA (and the analysts who have supported it have all been driven by that idea as well), AA employees who are looking for a way to reduce the cuts they will have to take in BK, AA mgmt supporters many of whom I have strongly disagreed with in the past and who now believe the AA standalone plan is best, and independents like me who have no allegiance to any of the parties but also believe like group 3 that the best chance of AA's success long term is to cut costs deeply enough in order to turn the company around and compete. Yes, I get that the whole growth plan the cmopany has proposed is far from certain but cost cuts have been shown to be capable of providing the room airlines need to compete. UA and US both obtained those cuts in large measure and have largely not rewarded employees for their sacrifices that enabled those companies to turn around. I doubt if that will ever change - to the detriment of those employees - and esp. the PMCO employees who did turn their company around based on mgmt that believed in that principle.
.
My question to you remains the same: what is your plan B and how do you realistically think you will get there? If US is plan B, then explain how the non-labor creditors will be convinced and how US-AA will be more viable than AA on a standalone basis when US-AA is based on reducing the size of the cuts that AA is proposing?

 

[Mach85ER]

boeing boy.

Nothing was directed at you. I've found your posts informative and take heed your warnings about Parker to the core. From what I've heard, APA, and it's very expensive well regarded advisers, are also very careful in dealing with Parker. It's just business. I think the boards tend to raise the issue to the "He's goin' to save us" level.

 

[Mach85ER]

WT and others,

I posted the following thoughts about the current AA situation:

-AA should have gone Chapter 11 in 2003.
-Horton's plan for growth at the cornerstones will not work
- AA needs to merge with USAirways (preferbaly while in BK) to get the hubs in CLT/PHL/PHX. With these addedroutes, AA can compete with DAL and UAL. Without this capacity, the future of AA sounds doubtful
-AA has given up competing. In the past, an attack at a hub would be met with a response. Boston is an example of not competing
-AA should send the Embraers back to Brazil.
-There has to be changes in AA management.
-No confidence in Horton and the rest of senior management.


They weren't mine, but I've been thinking the same way. I mentioned them for those that have been offering their opinions about the subject. They are those of someone who should know a little bit more than the average poster regarding the issue.

They were reported to come from Robert L Crandall within the last two days.

later, gotta go.

WorldTraveler, sorry about getting your leg caught in the bear trap. Feel free to chew your leg off attempting to escape.

 

[wings396]

This should be good, WT vs Crandall. Could this be the post that stops WT dead in his tracks?