Union contracts state: "US had a contractual right to implement the 5 percent pay deferral per union contracts. Specifically, "War Contingency" contract clause states, "In the event that (a) the U.S. invades Iraq (meaning that the U.S. initiates a sustained aerial bombardment of those parts of Iraq that are not within the current no fly zone or introduces substantial numbers of ground troops into the territory of Iraq), or (B) there is an act of terrorism which in either event has a material adverse impact on commercial aviation, there will be an immediate 5% pay deferral for up to 18 months. The deferral will begin to be repaid starting the first month following the end of the deferral and will continue to be repaid in as many monthly installments as were covered by the deferral. In the event that US Airways Group reports a pretax profit with respect to any quarter during which the pay deferral is in effect, the deferral will immediately stop and repayment will begin in the next month to continue for the same number of months as were included in the deferral."
Chip comments: In my opinion, the company can implement the 5% wage deferral anytime a terrorist attack occurs in the future, which has a "material adverse impact on commercial aviation." Therefore, the current wage deferral may not be the last time US employees will see this earnings adjustment in the future. In addition, I do not expect US to return to profitability until Q2 2004, therefore, I believe the 5% reduction will begin to be repaid July 1, 2004. US should have better second and third quarters, but like UA and the remainder of the industry, the company is facing the seasonal post Labor Day slowdown, slower winter months, and September 11 anniversary passenger fear, which will depress earnings.
Best regards,
Chip